The third time's a charm, and the Shevchenko-Grasso odds look slightly different than the last time around.
According to BetMGM, Alexa Grasso is a -140 favorite over Valentina Shevchenko (a +110 underdog) in this UFC women's flyweight title fight scheduled for UFC 306 at The Sphere on September 14. This will be the third time these fighters have matched up.
Grasso won the first fight by submission in one of the UFC's biggest upsets of all time, and the second bout ended in a draw, prompting the trilogy.
Here's what I've got for our Shevchenko vs Grasso odds, betting preview, and best bets.
Shevchenko vs Grasso Odds
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Valentina Shevchenko | +110 |
| Alexa Grasso | -140 |
Odds as of September 13 via BetMGM
Per our odds calculator, a $100 bet on Grasso at -140 odds pays out $171.43. Meanwhile, a $100 bet on Shevchenko pays out $210.
Shevchenko vs Grasso Betting Preview
Now let's see how the trilogy shakes out.
Shevchenko Best Bets
In the last two fights, "Bullet" ran into trouble when she traded strikes at the same time as Grasso. The Mexican's punches were snappier, quicker, and landed with more authority. It'll be hard to outbox Grasso, so Valentina must slow things down.
Leg kicks and punches on exits will help. Despite her age, Shevchenko's strong lower half gives her an advantage with Muay Thai strikes and takedowns. Grasso had no answer for Shevchenko's takedown chains, and once she dragged her down in the second fight, the champ rarely stood up.
For Valentina to win, she must remember Grasso doesn't have the KO power to put her out. She can use her strong chin to get close and bully Grasso to the cage or down to the mat. I doubt Grasso yields to a submission, so I'd recommend betting on Shevchenko by decision. You can snag extra value that way.
How Grasso Wins
Engage. Engage. Engage. When Grasso pushed the pace at UFC 285, she opened up a world of success, whether it came from traditional boxing exchanges or clever combos to the body and chin.
Whenever Grasso turned up the heat, Shevchenko went instantly to the takedown. That strategy worked for Valentina until that fateful fourth round when Grasso caught one of Shevchenko's kicks and spun it into a championship-winning submission. Shevchenko employed a similar strategy in their second fight and won the rounds when she claimed top position. How Grasso resists Shevchenko's takedown efforts could easily decide the fight. Grasso can slug Valentina on the exits and then preserve energy for when she needs it.
Either way, I bet this fight goes the distance, so I'd recommend taking Grasso ML at -140, but you can also swing bigger with Grasso by decision.
UFC 306: Shevchenko vs Grasso Betting Pick
While these fighters are very evenly matched, I envision Grasso's youthful vigor will make the bout go the distance. Since I project a razor-thin decision on the judges' scorecards, I'll take Grasso's speed and volume as assets to get us the win. It's also hard to evaluate how Shevchenko, now 36 years old, fares as she gets closer to retirement.
