In my MLB expert picks yesterday, I touted the Phillies as a runline lock. And, they won by five runs.
I don't have any locks for you today, but I do have two picks I'm fairly confident in. I'm backing two of the biggest markets in baseball, with picks on the Red Sox and the Dodgers.
Find out where my picks are going in my MLB expert picks for May 16th:
MLB Expert Picks: May 16th, 2024
Pick 1: Red Sox (-108) vs Rays
Matchup Preview - Game Time: 7:11 pm ET
I think we’re collectively sleeping on Cooper Criswell. The Red Sox swingman has quietly been one of the best pitchers in baseball this year, rocking a 2.10 ERA in six outings. The Red Sox have also won five of his six starts.
Criswell now faces a Rays team that’s kind of scuttling right now. Tampa Bay has seen their team OPS against righties drop to .672 (21st in MLB) and they've averaged just four runs per game in the last eight contests.
On the flip side, Rays starter Zach Littell has seen his ERA rise two runs in his last five outings, and the Rays have lost three of his last five starts, too.
On top of the general trends, I think Wilyer Aubrey’s hot streak is going to help us to a Boston victory today. The Red Sox outfielder has five hits and two homers in his last 15 at-bats. You can get Abreu to record a hit at -220.
Pick 2: Dodgers -1.5 (-154) vs Reds
Matchup Preview - Game Time: 10:11 pm ET
The Reds have been so bad against right-handed pitching so far this season. They’re hitting just .215 against the strong side of the platoon, posting a .651 OPS that’s fourth-worst in baseball.
Now they have the pleasure of facings one of baseball's best righties: Tyler Glasnow. Glasnow has allowed more than two earned runs in just one of his last six starts. He's rocking a 2.53 ERA on the season, and that ERA has gone down in each of his last five outings.
The Dodgers have won all but one of Glasnow’s seven starts this year. They’ve also covered the runline in all but one of those wins (so 5-2 runline this season).
