The Thursday baseball slate always goes hard, which is why I'm here to make it better with some MLB predictions.
The Odds Shark team is 2-1 this week on picks, so I'll be eyeing the Mets (and fading the Nats), plus backing the Jays to defeat the Giants on the road. Here are my two MLB expert picks for today:
MLB Expert Pick Today: Mets (-140) vs Nationals
Mets vs Nationals Odds - Game Time: 9:39 pm ET
I like a few factors in this matchup, including a guaranteed NRFI, which you can read more about here.
Firstly, the starting pitching matchup is more even than you might think. Mackenzie Gore has been excellent for the Nationals this season, but David Peterson (3.58 ERA) has also been quietly successful, generating $435 worth of profit if you bet $100 on each of his seven starts. Washington is also terrible vs LHPs this year, with its .629 OPS ranking second-worst in MLB.
Here's the problem: the Mets bullpen has been the worst in baseball over the last two weeks (8.24 ERA). That sketches me a bit, but I'm counting on the Amazins carrying a big lead into the later innings. Active Mets hitters own an .819 OPS vs Gore with four homers in 84 at-bats.
On the bullpen front, Edwin Diaz is now back from suspension, Adam Ottavino is rested and available, and the Mets just traded for Phil Maton from the Rays. Washington has also lost four straight contests, while the Mets are on a two-game winning streak.
MLB Expert Pick Today: Blue Jays (+105) vs Giants
Blue Jays vs Giants Odds - Game Time: 3:45 pm ET
Toronto broke through with a big 10-6 win over the Giants yesterday after the Jays' calamitous bullpen coughed up another ninth-inning lead the day prior. Even with a banged-up lineup, the value is on the Jays in Thursday's contest.
The Jays' chances hinge entirely on Kevin Gausman's success, and as a bettor, I'm cool with that, knowing the right-hander has a strong resume of success against his former team. Active Giants hitters are slashing just .255/.293/.345 vs Gausman with 20 strikeouts in 55 at-bats. Those strikeout numbers are massive, as he's fanning Giants hitters at a 36% clip with only three walks. Once Gausman departs, the Blue Jays will also have the best members of their bullpen available (Chad Green and Genesis Cabrera).
To make things sweeter, the Blue Jays rake against Giants starter Jordan Hicks. Toronto notoriously hit Hicks hard during his Cardinals days, producing a 1.034 team OPS in four games (38 PAs) vs the right-hander.
