I'm focusing in on the AL East for my Friday MLB expert picks.
With bets on the Yankees and Orioles, I'm looking to finish off my week with some winners. Here are my MLB expert picks for June 28th:
MLB Expert Picks: June 28th, 2024
You can jump directly to today's picks here:
Pick 1: Yankees (-122) vs Blue Jays
Matchup Preview - Game Time: 7:07 pm ET
The Yankees have been much better offensively lately, ranking out 12th in team OPS compared to the Blue Jays' 23rd. But, this bet is about far more than offense. Yankees SP Marcus Stroman absolutely owns the Blue Jays.
In three starts against his former team, Stroman has rocked a 1.65 ERA allowing just three runs in 16.1 innings. On the other side, Yusei Kikuchi isn't great against the Yanks. Current New York hitters have a .290 career average and .825 OPS against Kikuchi, with Aaron Judge bashing multiple homers off the lefty.
The one thing that gives me concern here is that Kikuchi has won both his starts against the Yankees this year, pitching 11.1 innings and allowing just a single run. Both those outings came in April though, and Kikuchi has been much worse in June, allowing over four runs in three of five starts.
Pick 2: Rangers vs Orioles Under 8.5 (-112)
Matchup Preview - Game Time: 7:06 pm ET
The Texas Rangers offense is in shambles right now. Texas' offense has a .638 OPS in the last month, ranking out as fourth-worst in baseball. They also have a great starting pitcher going tonight (bad offense + great pitching = under). Max Scherzer is back for his second start of 2024 after pitching five shutout (one-hit) innings in his debut. Since joining the Rangers, Scherzer has a 2.88 ERA.
The Orioles may have a great offense that's ranked out second in baseball over the last month, but I think Scherzer can largely shut them down. And, on the Baltimore pitching side, we have another stud.
Baltimore's Albert Suarez has a 2.70 ERA and 3.38 FIP on the season allowing over three runs in one of his last five starts. Part of me wants to take the Orioles moneyline here, banking on Suarez blanking this stumbling Texas offense. But, I think Scherzer has an upside that could keep this one close, so the under is the smart play.
