My MLB same-game parlay today features three legs on the Mariners vs Red Sox game. I'll bet James Paxton pitches better than expected in his Sox season debut and Boston's offense does some damage.
Read up on the complete Mariners-Red Sox same-game parlay here:
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Mariners vs Red Sox Same-Game Parlay Today
Mariners vs Red Sox Odds - 7:10 p.m. ET
| Bet | Odds |
|---|---|
| James Paxton UNDER 3.5 Earned Runs | -150 |
| Luis Castillo OVER 4.5 Strikeouts | -170 |
| Red Sox ML | -105 |
| Overall | +375 |
Mariners vs Red Sox Same-Game Parlay Pick No. 1: Paxton UNDER 3.5 Earned Runs
This is a great first leg. Firstly, the value on the UNDER 3.5 runs is incredible at -150. Paxton (4.43 ERA) hasn't had a perfect season, but he's been mostly reliable, cashing the UNDER 3.5 earned runs in 14 of 18 starts (78%). Again, a 78% likelihood for -150 is great play.
Why am I so convinced? Well, Paxton also owns the Mariners, who aren't a powerful offense to begin with. Active Seattle hitters are 3-for-24 lifetime vs Paxton with six strikeouts. On top of that, the M's are the fourth-worst offense in baseball with a .670 team OPS.
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Mariners vs Red Sox Same-Game Parlay Pick No. 2: Castillo OVER 4.5 Strikeouts
This is another quality prop to add to our same-game parlay. For starters, Castillo has cashed the OVER 4.5 strikeouts in 15 of 22 outings (68%) this season.
Now, Castillo doesn't have great numbers vs Red Sox hitters, yielding an .803 OPS in 70 at-bats, but there's a catch. While Castillo surrenders a decent amount of power to active Sox hitters (.529 SLG), he also Ks them at an excellent rate. Castillo has struck out 23 of 70 Boston batters in his career for a cool 33% strikeout rate.
Most Sox hitters' success against Castillo is juxtaposed with a boatload of strikeouts. For example, Rafael Devers is 3-for-9 with a home run and four strikeouts. Jarren Durran is 3-for-6 with a homer and three strikeouts. The Red Sox can succeed and still strike out a bunch, which I'm counting on for the final leg of my parlay.
Mariners vs Red Sox Same-Game Parlay Pick No. 3: Red Sox ML
Last but not least, we're taking the Red Sox moneyline, a testament to the uniqueness of this pitching matchup and Boston's overall offensive prowess. The Red Sox stepped on the gas yesterday, ramping up their offense for a 14-7 rout over Logan Gilbert and the Mariners.
Now, based on the splits I've laid out, the Red Sox will have a slight pitching advantage and a rested bullpen, setting their potent offense up for another big evening at hitter-friendly Fenway Park.
