The NRFI picks today don't stop, even with just one MLB playoff game on tap. It's Mets vs Brewers on Thursday, the only Wild Card contest to go three games. I'm betting on more chaos after the YRFI hit in the first two games of this series.
See all our NRFI picks below for today's slate of postseason baseball.
YRFI Pick Today: Mets vs Brewers (+125)
Mets vs Brewers Odds -- Game Time 7:08 p.m. ET
People ask me if playoff games should constitute an automatic NRFI bet. While NRFIs are more likely in the postseason, let this Mets-Brewers series show you why blind betting isn't the move. The YRFI has hit in Games 1 and 2 of this Wild Card matchup, and I recommend betting it a third time as both teams try to stave off elimination.
The Brewers are far more likely to score in the first inning. Milwaukee's lineup broke out in the final few innings of Wednesday's contest, first with another Jackson Chourio homer (his second of the evening), and later with a game-winning bomb by Garrett Mitchell. The Crew remain now have all that energy and a home crowd to amp the club up for Game 3.
If you want more than anecdotal reasoning, check Jose Quintana's splits vs Brewers hitter. The Mets starter ended his season on nine consecutive NRFIs, but the postseason is different, and Brewers hitters own a .903 OPS against Quintana in 66 at-bats. Willy Adames, Jackson Chourio, William Contreras, and Joey Ortiz all own an OPS north of 1.000 vs Quintana.
Brewers starter Tobias Meyers might be safer in the top half, but nothing is guaranteed in the postseason, and the rookie right-hander could falter. He diced the Mets during the regular season, holding their lineup to a 1-for-14 slate. But Meyers is a rookie, and the postseason brings a heavier weight. The Mets won't roll over in this final game, and there's been something in the air (smell that dairy air!) in Wisconsin that has caused multiple runs in the first inning.
Also, it's not always easy to find plus-money postseason MLB bets. And after two successful YRFIs, the sportsbooks are offering this prop at +125.
