It’s April 10, and I'm sniffing out value with today's best NRFI bets.
I’m betting the NRFI in the late game between the Braves and Phillies, but I'm going YRFI for Twins-Royals in an AL Central showdown.
YRFI Pick Today: Twins vs Royals (+100 at Sportsbook)
Twins vs Royals Odds – Game Time: 2:10 p.m. ET
I always try to use my YRFIs wisely, and this is a good opportunity to hit on a plus-money bet. Weirdly, the Twins are 9-3 YRFI (second-best in baseball) this year despite a sub-.650 team OPS in the first inning. If the offense doesn't drive in a run, then their pitching falters.
Today's pitching matchups are juicy. Bailey Ober starts for MIN, and he coughed up a YRFI in his last outing. Plus, Ober has endured a brutal time vs the Royals in his career. Current Royals players own a .957 OPS vs Ober in 105 career at-bats. That includes a notable .600 slugging.
On the other side, Michael Wacha isn't elite against Twins hitters either. He has yielded a .280 BA and .729 OPS to Twins guys in 93 at-bats.
NRFI Pick Today: Phillies vs Braves (-128 at Sportsbook)
Phillies vs Braves Odds – Game Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
The Phillies and Braves have been especially sleepy in the first inning this season. Atlanta stinks (2-9 SU) right now, and you can add its .138 team BA in the first inning to the club's growing list of problems. The Braves have scraped for offense this year and will likely find no such luck against Phils lefty Jesus Luzardo, who is off to a hot start. "The Lizard King" has yielded just two runs in 12 innings with an MLB-leading 19 strikeouts. He's a buzzsaw to this soft Braves lineup.
And then Braves starter Spencer Schwellenbach must keep the Phillies lineup in order. I have faith he can do it. The Braves righty has been excellent this year, yielding no runs and just three hits through 14 innings of work. He has also held active Phils hitters to a .570 OPS.
