Momentum is everything in the world of wagering on player props, because once you start stringing together several wins and boosting your units, it can steamroll into much greater gains. We've been experiencing some good fortune in this market as of late, and Friday's nine-game NBA schedule will hopefully continue that trend.
Here are four expert player prop picks for your consideration, including a PRA for Bam Adebayo (-106) as the Miami Heat travel north of the border to take on the Toronto Raptors on February 21, 2025.
Bam Adebayo OVER 33.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists vs. Raptors (-106)
Preview: Miami Heat vs. Toronto Raptors, 7:30 p.m. ET
Not that he needed any added assistance in dominating Toronto, but Jakob Poeltl's questionable status and possible absence for Friday's matchup would create a gargantuan hole in the interior for Adebayo to exploit like he's done three times already in 2024-25.
Not even taking the Raptors into account, Adebayo has exceeded a PRA (points + rebounds + assists) of 33.5 in five of his last six appearances for Miami. Now against Toronto specifically, the 27-year-old big man has gone OVER this number all three times and has even reached at least 40 in the last two meetings. He's averaged 16 points, 15.3 rebounds, and 7.3 assists in those games.
For what it's worth, Poeltl was active for each of those outings, so whether he's out there or not at Scotiabank Arena, Adebayo could and should still have a field day.
Chris Paul OVER 17.5 Points + Assists vs. Pistons (-111)
Preview: Detroit Pistons vs. San Antonio Spurs, 8:30 p.m. ET
The San Antonio Spurs couldn't have asked for a better performance after defeating the Phoenix Suns by 11 points on Thursday, especially after news broke that Victor Wembanyama would be sidelined for the remainder of the season due to a deep vein thrombosis in his shoulder. Having a strong veteran presence and voice on the roster like Chris Paul helps in these types of ordeals, as the 39-year-old point guard has consistently stepped up whenever the 7-foot-4 Frenchman is unavailable.
Paul registered his first double-double since Jan. 13 in the win over Phoenix, finishing with 13 points and 10 assists across 31 minutes of action. It was also the first time in five games that he reached an OVER on 17.5 combined points and dimes, which doesn't sound all that great for Friday when hosting the Detroit Pistons, but there's a method to the madness of taking an OVER here.
There have been seven instances this season in which Paul has taken the hardwood without Wembanyama in the lineup, and he's gone OVER this prop the last six times with four double-doubles sprinkled throughout. Now it's not going to happen every game for the rest of the campaign, but for now, it's a logical bet to make all things considered.
Klay Thompson OVER 3.5 Made 3-Pointers vs. Pelicans (+106)
Preview: New Orleans Pelicans vs. Dallas Mavericks, 8:30 p.m. ET
Shooters shoot, and on a Dallas Mavericks roster still completely decimated by injuries, especially in the frontcourt, Klay Thompson has even greater clearance to shoot to his hearts content. Facing the New Orleans Pelicans at the American Airlines Center is the perfect setting for a big line from behind the arc, as New Orleans ranks dead last in 3-pointers allowed to the opposition over the last 10 games at 16.8.
Thompson headed into the All-Star break converting 10-of-24 from the perimeter over his last two games, and that would result in a pair of OVERs on 3.5 made 3-pointers which is what oddsmakers have set for Friday. It's also a number the 35-year-old sniper has beaten two out of three times already against New Orleans, connecting on at least five in those matchups.
High volume can often overcome inefficient shooting, and Thompson reaching double-digit shot attempts from 3-point range in his last two appearances is a good sign, especially if his shot fails him like it did versus the Pelicans on Jan. 13 when he only went 2-of-9 from deep.
Wendell Carter Jr. To Record Double-Double vs. Grizzlies (+400)
Preview: Memphis Grizzlies vs. Orlando Magic, 7 p.m. ET
Don't let the +400 betting odds fool you for the likelihood of Wendell Carter Jr. achieving a double-double at home against the Memphis Grizzlies. If anything, just be grateful that the value is there for such a line, because there's legs to stand on here as far as why it's more obtainable than perhaps oddsmakers would lead you to believe.
Carter Jr. finished with a double-double of 11 points and 11 rebounds in a 16-point win for the Orlando Magic over the Charlotte Hornets on Feb. 12, and in the team's first game back from the break on Thursday, fell just a single point short of yet another with nine points and 15 boards in the six-point victory over the Atlanta Hawks.
Orlando has moved Carter Jr. into the starting lineup on what will hopefully be a permanent basis as Goga Bitadze goes to the second unit. Now the 25-year-old center started against Memphis on Oct. 26 and did secure 10 rebounds, albeit with just three points, but if Carter Jr. can clean the glass again and get to at least 10, then there's still upside there for a double-double to get notched.
