Another day, another disappointing result in the NBA player props market for the week with a few of our picks coming up just one or two numbers short of connecting. Nonetheless, we move forward with hopes of boosting units, and our four picks for Thursday's slim slate should get us there.
Here are the four expert picks in question, including a combination prop for New York Knicks wing Mikal Bridges (-118) on the road against the Charlotte Hornets on March 20.
Mikal Bridges OVER 20.5 Points + Assists vs. Hornets (-118 at Sportsbook)
Preview: New York Knicks vs. Charlotte Hornets, 7 p.m. ET
The Knicks' offense has completely fallen off a cliff since All-Star point guard Jalen Brunson went down with an ankle injury, as the team is scoring just 111.7 points per 100 possessions (23rd) in the last six games without him. A 120-105 loss to the San Antonio Spurs on Wednesday was indicative of those struggles, as San Antonio possesses the second-worst defense in the Association since the All-Star break and New York still couldn't muster up a ton of points.
Bridges is one of the few players who has thrived during this recent stretch, though, averaging 21.8 points on just under 60 percent shooting from the field and 42.9 percent from 3-point range to go along with five assists per contest. He'll need at least 21 combined points and assists against a the lowly Charlotte Hornets on Thursday to reach an OVER here, but Bridges has accomplished that in each of the games sans Brunson (six in a row), and he only did so once in the nine games prior.
His most recent outing against Charlotte on Dec. 5 saw Bridges register a line of 19 points and seven assists, so we've seen an OVER on 20.5 once already. Head coach Tom Thibodeau will continue to look at Bridges for contributions, especially with all three of Josh Hart (37.9 percent), Miles McBride (36.7 percent), and O.G. Anunoby (36.6 percent) all shooting poorly as of late.
Jamison Battle To Make 3+ 3-Pointers vs. Warriors (+100 at Sportsbook)
Preview: Toronto Raptors vs. Golden State Warriors, 10 p.m. ET
In a rookie crop where standouts aren't jumping off the page, undrafted Toronto Raptors guard Jamison Battle has found his niche early on and is making a name off of that. His 40.7 3-point shooting percentage is second amongst first-year players with at least 30 appearances who are averaging at least one make per game, only trailing Golden State Warriors big man Quentin Post (41.4 percent) who Battle will be seeing on Thursday.
Battle has started the last four games for Toronto, and has converted three or more triples in three of those outings, which will be enough to hit this wager at the Chase Center. Of his 47 total shot attempts, 35 of them have come from behind the arc which leads the team, as do his 11 makes.
Oddsmakers have the road Raptors as the 14.5-point underdogs, so the expectation is that the scoreboard won't be close throughout. Battle still saw the floor for roughly 30 minutes in Toronto's recent 40-point blowout courtesy of the Phoenix Suns, and since head coach Darko Rajakovic is prioritizing playing his younger guys more during this final stretch anyway, the 23-year-old shouldn't be at risk of getting pulled if the game gets away from the visitors.
Tre Jones OVER 9.5 Rebounds + Assists vs. Kings (-114 at Sportsbook)
Preview: Chicago Bulls vs. Sacramento Kings, 10 p.m. ET
The Chicago Bulls are stacked to the brim with guards, which makes Tre Jones' production all the more impressive sticking out and thriving when it could have been easy to fall out of favor. Jones has started the last eight games and the team has a winning record (5-3), so this isn't just a flash in the pan.
Over those eight games, Jones has contributed 14.9 points, 4.9 rebounds, and 7.1 assists in 33.2 minutes per game. He didn't play 30 or more minutes in any game this season with the San Antonio Spurs prior to being acquired by the Bulls, but has done so in each of these eight starts.
His boards and dimes are what we're zeroing in on here, because while finishing in the double digits with these numbers put together seems like a lot, which it absolutely is, Jones has gone OVER 9.5 for this combo prop in his last two games, five of his last six, and six of his last eight. Both Chicago and the Sacramento Kings are on the second night of a back to back, so neither side will have the rest advantage. All one can do is trust that Jones has another loaded box score in the tank.
Ziare Williams OVER 11.5 Points vs. Pacers (-114 at Sportsbook)
Preview: Brooklyn Nets vs. Indiana Pacers, 7 p.m. ET
The Brooklyn Nets are one of several teams counting down the days until the draft lottery at a time when losses are more valued than victories to accumulate ping-pong balls. As the saying goes, teams tank but players don't, and someone who continues to make the most out of whatever opportunity is given to him regardless of the team's results is Ziare Williams.
He's averaging 12.4 points over his last 13 games, all but one of which have been as a starter for Brooklyn. Williams needs 12 points against the Indiana Pacers at Gainbridge Fieldhouse, which he had least least that many of in the last two games against the reigning champion Boston Celtics, producing 14 and 15 points respectively. He's also gone over 11.5 points in three of his last four games and four of his last six.
NBA Best Player Prop Trends Today
- The Los Angeles Lakers are 9-0 (100.0%) in their last 9 games at home (+130 at BetMGM)
- Kevin Porter Jr. has gone OVER 1.5 turnovers in 4 of his last 5 games on the road (2.4 turnovers/game average) - (+115 at bet365)
Draymond Green has gone OVER 1.5 steals in 4 of his last 5 games vs. bottom 10 defenses for steals allowed (2.4 steals/game average) - (+100 at FanDuel)
Kevin Huerter has gone OVER 2.5 three pointers in 4 of his last 5 games vs. bottom 10 defenses for 3pt made allowed (4.0 three pointers/game average) - (+100 at FanDuel)
- Draymond Green has gone OVER 2.5 turnovers in 5 of his last 6 games at home (3.3 turnovers/game average) - (+125 at bet365)
Draymond Green OVER 1.5 steals vs TOR (+100 at FanDuel)
Funnily enough, Draymond OVERs on steals and turnovers are the two best options for prop bets today. The duality of man. But I'll play Green's steals props after the self-absorbed Warriors vet declared he was in contention for Defensive Player of the Year.
I have tons of confidence in this bet. As Outlier pointed out, the Raps cough the ball up a lot. Toronto's 15.6 turnovers per game rank fifth in the NBA, leaving plenty of chances for Green to pick someone's pocket.
First, the Spurs have a very leaky defense, yielding 116.5 PPG as a team, ranking 23rd in the NBA. San Antonio also allows nearly 14 3PT makes per game, which opens up a big part of OG's game. For example, Scottie Barnes commits an average of 2.9 turnovers per game, and center Jakob Poeltl is at 1.9 TOs. Green will exploit one of those gentlemen Thursday.
Lastly, three straight power forwards and six of the last seven have hit their steals OVER vs the Raptors. This includes a four-steal performance by Paolo Banchero of the Magic on March 5.
- Ethan Diamandas
