There's five games across the NBA schedule on Thursday night in what's the final action before All-Star Weekend, and every team competing will be on the second night of a back-to-back slate, so fatigue and the upcoming break could play a part in minutes allocated to key names.
Here are five expert player prop picks, one for each of the matchups, to hopefully continue the momentum gained after a 4-1 record on Wednesday. This includes a Stephen Curry combination prop for points and assists (-104) when the Golden State Warriors visit the Toyota Center to take on the Houston Rockets on February 13, 2025.
Stephen Curry OVER 31.5 Points + Assists vs. Rockets (-104)
Preview: Golden State Warriors vs. Houston Rockets, 8 p.m. ET
The presence of another All-Star talent in the Warriors' starting lineup with the arrival of Jimmy Butler has given Curry's numbers a jolt over the last three games, as he's averaging 32.3 points and six assists with six 3-pointers since the blockbuster deal. Specifically as it pertains to this prop, the four-time champion has achieved an OVER on 31.5 points and assists in five-straight appearances after failing to do so once in the seven games prior.
The worry here is that Curry has failed to exceed this number in five of his last six games versus top-10 defenses for points allowed (26.7 points + assists/game average, per Outlier), and the Houston Rockets currently rank sixth with opponents scoring 108.7 points per contest. A player like Curry gets a bit of reprieve here with Fred VanVleet still out with injury, and the last time he suited up on no rest on Feb. 6, The Chef cooked up a 37-point, four-assist box score in a loss to the Los Angeles Lakers. Having Butler around does change the dynamic in a big way, as Houston will need to account for someone else other than Curry, therefore leaving the door ajar for an OVER.
Bam Adebayo To Grab 12+ Rebounds vs. Mavericks (+125)
Preview: Miami Heat vs. Dallas Mavericks, 8:30 p.m. ET
The Dallas Mavericks' frontcourt has been decimated with injuries as of late, resulting in head coach Jason Kidd having to go small in his starting lineup with a frontcourt comprised of two 6-foot-7 forwards in Kessler Edwards and Oliver-Maxence Prosper. With the likes of Dereck Lively II (ankle) and Dwight Powell (hip) out, and now adding newly-acquired Anthony Davis (groin) and Daniel Gafford (knee) to the list, Dallas has been exposed on the glass due to its lack of size and and ranks 28th overall in rebounds over its last five games at just 38.8.
Bam Adebayo should feast in this department on Thursday for the Miami Heat, having already grabbed 12 or more rebounds in three of his last four appearances and four of his last six. He had 11 earlier in the season versus Dallas on Nov. 24, and Miami had 57 in total that evening with Butler (no longer with the team), Tyler Herro, and Kevin Love each having nine or more. The roster has obviously undergone a bit of a makeover since then, so feel free to assume Adebayo can boost his total and help bettors cash in at plus money.
Jose Alvarado OVER 17.5 Points + Assists vs. Kings (+100)
Preview: Sacramento Kings vs. New Orleans Pelicans, 8 p.m. ET
The New Orleans Pelicans just hosted the Sacramento Kings last night in what amounted to an eight-point loss at the Smoothie King Center, so running it back 24 hours later is solid due diligence for bettors since everyone can just look at that box score for research. In his third-straight start, Jose Alvarado barely missed out on a double-double with 18 points and nine assists in 32 minutes, and his scoring alone would topple the combination prop set by oddsmakers for this rematch.
This is projected to be the highest-scoring game of the night with the total set at 235.5 points, which is 10 more points than any other game on the schedule. That obviously helps Alvarado's cause, as does the fact that the Pelicans don't have a ton of depth at point guard to spot him minutes, as the second unit lacks players who can facilitate and run the offense. Anything close to what he mustered up on Wednesday will get the job done here.
James Harden OVER 33.5 Points + Assists vs. Jazz (-108)
Preview: Los Angeles Clippers vs. Utah Jazz, 9 p.m. ET
James Harden's numbers against the Utah Jazz through three games in 2024-25 have been absolutely ridiculous, and the fourth and final encounter should be no different. He's averaged a double-double of 28.3 points and 11.7 assists to go along with three rebounds, 1.7 steals, and a block in 34.7 minutes in those three meetings. Harden's second-greatest scoring output thus far this season was his 41-point effort versus Utah on Dec. 16, and his 17 dimes less than a week ago on Feb. 8 when the Jazz visited the Intuit Dome was also his highest of the campaign.
Keep in mind, however, that Harden has only exceeded 33.5 total points and assists once in his last seven games played, although the one he went OVER in was against Utah. His Los Angeles Clippers teammate Kawhi Leonard could have his minutes monitored closely on no rest and with the break approaching, and with the Jazz having been extremely competitive as of late at the Delta Center, Harden could see a good chunk of minutes if the score stays close.
Anthony Edwards OVER 4.5 Made 3-Pointers vs. Thunder (+124)
Preview: Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Minnesota Timberwolves, 8:30 p.m. ET
With Chet Holmgren expected to play for the visiting Oklahoma City Thunder at the Target Center, paired with the presence of 7-footer Isaiah Hartenstein, the runway to the basket will be clogged for someone like Anthony Edwards to create looks in and around the painted area. Thankfully, as we've seen time and time again, the Minnesota Timberwolves All-Star can be infatuated with his 3-point marksmanship, as he's already attempted more shots from behind the arc through 53 games (536) than he did in 78 appearances all of last season (532).
Edwards has drilled five or more triples in three of his last four games and four of his last six. He only made four last night in a home loss to the Milwaukee Bucks, but he still attempted 17 3-point shots, so that trigger-happy nature bodes well for Thursday's numbers. For what it's worth, he's also gone OVER this number in four of the last five instances in which he played the second night in a row.
