An even 2-2 split on NBA player props on Wednesday isn't ideal, but it didn't hurt our overall units too much. As always, all of our picks are justified through research and analysis, but sometimes the basketball gods have a different story to tell.
Here are four more expert player prop picks for the eight-game schedule on Thursday, March 27, including an UNDER on a combination prop for San Antonio Spurs guard Stephon Castle (-112) against the Cleveland Cavaliers at Rocket Arena.
Stephon Castle UNDER 23.5 Points + Rebounds vs. Cavaliers (-112 at Sportsbook)
Preview: San Antonio Spurs vs. Cleveland Cavaliers, 7 p.m. ET
The absence of Spurs teammates Victor Wembanyama and De'Aaron Fox have led to an uptick in production for the betting favorite in the Rookie of the Year race. Castle is averaging 19.9 points in the month of March on 47.8 percent shooting, along with 4.1 rebounds and 4.5 assists in less than 30 minutes per game. That would logically make bettors lean towards OVERs on his props, but the Cavaliers await on Thursday, and the leaders out East will surely look to stifle one of San Antonio's few remaining weapons.
Cleveland sits eighth in defense since the All-Star break by allowing just 111.5 points per 100 possessions, which is conveniently enough identical to its season rank and average. Its won two in a row by double digits after dropping a rare four-straight games, and even with Evan Mobley out for rest, Castle could be in for a long night seeking to replicate some of his recent output.
The 20-year-old UConn alumnus has gone UNDER 23.5 points and rebounds in each of his last three games, and the Cavaliers do rank sixth and second in opposing shooting guard's points and rebounds, respectively, according to Odds Shark's metrics. That's a formula built for yet another UNDER at decent value.
Santi Aldama oVER 12.5 points vs. Thunder (-102 at Sportsbook)
Preview: Memphis Grizzlies vs. Oklahoma City Thunder, 8 p.m. ET
The Memphis Grizzlies will once again be without Ja Morant as he misses a sixth-straight contest due to an injured hamstring, and playing the lowly Utah Jazz was enough to right the ship on Tuesday after losing three-straight games. The Oklahoma City Thunder are an entirely different beast, obviously, so Memphis will need role players like Santi Aldama to shoulder more of a scoring load to keep pace against the best team in basketball.
Aladama needs at least 13 points to notch an OVER here, which he's done in two of his last three games after returning from a calf strain. He only had nine points versus the Jazz, but like most of the starters that day, Aldama didn't see a ton of action with the end result never being in doubt in an eventual 37-point blowout.
He had 18 points on just eight shot attempts earlier in the campaign versus Oklahoma City on Feb. 8, and that was as a reserve. Aldama should continue to start to size up the frontcourt against the likes of Isaiah Hartenstein and Chet Holmgren, and his ability to stretch the floor (team-high six 3-point attempts per game since returning) will come quite in handy to take some of those giants away from the basket.
Isaiah Collier OVER 20.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists vs. Rockets (-106 at Sportsbook)
Preview: Houston Rockets vs. Utah Jazz, 9 p.m. ET
It's always important to check injury reports prior to placing bets, especially when it comes to a Utah Jazz team that's actively trying to lose games for tlottery. Rookie Isaiah Collier is one of the few on the roster who consistently suits up, so feel free to wager on one of the more pleasant surprises of the 2024 draft class to close out these final weeks because he'll surely continue to be the starting point guard.
His PRA (points + rebounds + assists) is set at 20.5 against the visiting Houston Rockets, and Collier has gone OVER that mark in seven of his last nine outings and 10 of his last 15. His 28 PRA in the aforementioned loss to Memphis was his first OVER in this market in three games, although Collier did reach 20 two days prior versus the Cavaliers finishing one number off.
Most importantly, just over a month ago on Feb. 22 versus Houston, Collier registered a double-double of 12 points and 10 assists along with four rebounds (PRA of 26) in a competitive, high-scoring matchup in Salt Lake City. This number of 20.5 is more than reasonable when also taking into account that Collier's teammates Lauri Markkanen and Jordan Clarkson will be out.
Josh Giddey To Make 2+ 3-Pointers vs. Lakers (+110 at Sportsbook)
Preview: Los Angeles Lakers vs. Chicago Bulls, 8 p.m. ET
The Los Angeles Lakers should be out for blood on Thursday after having the Chicago Bulls drop 146 points on them on Saturday with over 70 points in the paint, but the visitors are on the second night of a back-to-back slate after going down to the final buzzer against the Indiana Pacers, and their recent defensive struggles haven't improved since LeBron James returned to the lineup.
Josh Giddey barely missed out on a super-rare quadruple-double when these teams last met, putting together 15 points, 10 rebounds, 17 assists, and eight steals. Perhaps it's a tad crazy considering how absurd that line was to overlook all four of those numbers in favor of a 3-point prop, yet here we are.
He's drilled at least two 3-pointers in four of his last five appearances for Chicago, including in each of his last five games at the United Center. The Lakers are also allowing 16.3 triples to opponents over their last three games with James, which ranks 24th in the Association during that span.
