Rather than lean on the statistical output of NBA superstars, this edition of player prop expert picks will seek out value from three players who haven't been named All-Stars as of yet in their respective careers, with two bets placed at plus money.
Here are three player prop wagers for the seven-game slate on Friday, December 6, including a 3-point prop set at +110 for the No. 1 overall pick of the 2024 draft against a Los Angeles Lakers defense that's falling off a cliff.
Zaccharie Risacher OVER 1.5 3-Pointers vs. Lakers (+110)
Preview: Los Angeles Lakers vs. Atlanta Hawks, 7:30 p.m. ET
What's usually the correct play is fading the Atlanta Hawks and riding the hot hand of any shooters playing against them, as Atlanta is far and away the worst team in the Association at defending the 3-point line. Perhaps sportsbooks are catching on to this trend, because as of early Friday morning, the only player with an open 3-point prop on the Lakers was LeBron James, and his personal cold streak makes him a shaky choice.
Los Angeles essentially gave up on defense Wednesday night in a blowout 132-93 loss to the Miami Heat. It allowed 33 wide-open shots, in which Miami converted 19 at a 58-percent clip. Now it's difficult to imagine the Lakers repeating such a horrid display, but in owning the fourth-worst defense overall already (117.7 points allowed per 100 possessions), it's certainly a possibility.
Rookie Zaccharie Risacher should be able to take advantage of the Lakers regardless, especially from 3-point range. The 19-year-old Frenchman is only shooting 28.1 percent from behind the arc at State Farm Arena, but he's still attempting a healthy 5.1 shots from distance. He's also drilled two or more triples in four of his last five games, as well. The plus money makes this a worthwhile value bet, especially considering Los Angeles is tied for the third-most 3-pointers allowed over the last five games at 16 on 40.4 attempts.
Keegan Murray OVER 19.5 Points + Rebounds vs. Spurs (-106)
Preview: Sacramento Kings vs. San Antonio Spurs, 8 p.m. ET
Sacramento Kings forward Keegan Murray has improved his rebounding numbers from 5.5 last season to 7.9 through 23 appearances this campaign. He's grabbed six or more in each of his last four games, including 11 in a five-point loss to the Memphis Grizzlies on Thursday.
Oddsmakers have Murray's rebounding prop at 6.5 with an OVER at -138, so we're working a combination prop with points to improve the value. Murray has gone UNDER this prop in three of his five games on no rest this season, but on the two times he hit an OVER, he finished with a double-double.
The San Antonio Spurs are also on the second night of a back-to-back slate, and with Victor Wembanyama expected to be out once again, they'll be incredibly vulnerable on the boards yet again. Murray has also gone OVER 19.5 combined points and rebounds in his last two outings, so let's hope that streak continues here.
Josh Giddey OVER 6.5 Assists vs. Pacers (+102)
Preview: Indiana Pacers vs. Chicago Bulls, 8 p.m. ET
The Indiana Pacers are one of four teams allowing 30 or more assists to the opposition over the last five games (30.8), while the Chicago Bulls are accumulating the third-most assists during that same span (31.2). That's a winning formula for this prop as we zone in on Josh Giddey.
He hasn't gone consecutive games without hitting the OVER on 6.5 dimes since November 18, and after notching just four versus San Antonio on Thursday, the trends point towards Giddey recording at least seven against a Pacers team that's giving them up in abundance.
Giddey has nailed an OVER in 13 of his 22 games with the Bulls, meaning he connects at a 59.1-percent rate. That's enough to feel hopeful about on Friday.
