The Toronto Raptors must (once again) deal with life without Scottie Barnes, beginning with a matchup on Thursday night against the Miami Heat in which the visitors are 10.5-point betting underdogs at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Here's a spread, moneyline, total, and player prop expert pick as Miami looks to extend its winning streak to four games SU versus the depleted Raptors at the Kaseya Center on December 12, 2024.
Toronto Raptors vs. Miami Heat Betting Odds
Preview: Toronto Raptors vs. Miami Heat, 7:30 p.m. ET
| Team | Spread | Money | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Raptors | +10.5 (-108) | +400 | O 224.5 (-110) |
| Miami Heat | -10.5 (-112) | -520 | U 224.5 (-110) |
Odds as of December 12, 2024 at FanDuel
Toronto Raptors vs. Miami Heat Expert Picks
Miami Heat ATS -10.5 (-112), ML (-520)
After having already sat 11 games earlier in the year with an orbital bone injury, Barnes will now miss extended time with a right ankle sprain he suffered in a recent loss to the New York Knicks. Toronto went 2-9 SU during that aforementioned stretch sans its All-Star, yet somehow managed to maintain a respectable offensive rating ranking 14th overall at 113.3 points per contest.
Miami, meanwhile, has been in a groove recently with three-consecutive wins over quality opposition with winning records (Los Angeles Lakers, Phoenix Suns, and league-best Cleveland Cavaliers). Two of those victories came by double-digit margins, including a 134-93 blowout of the Lakers at home. The Heat have prevailed in four-straight games at home, as well, which includes a 121-111 win over the Raptors back on Nov. 29.
Toronto possesses the worst road record in basketball at 1-11 SU, but when Barnes was absent, it did go 4-3 in covering the spread away from Scotiabank Arena. The team was a monster underdog of 11 or more points in two of those covers, though, which did create some wiggle room.
With a 6-1 record both SU and ATS in their last seven home meetings, and having already beaten the Raptors in South Beach by 10 points when Barnes was active, it's hard to imagine the Heat failing to both win and cover here.
OVER 224.5 Total Points (-110)
We've seen that the Raptors are still capable of creating offense and scoring opportunities while Barnes recovers, and the Heat have nailed four-straight OVERs at home.
It's a lot of points to account for, as Barnes was averaging 21.2 points across 10 games since returning, but Toronto can recover that from other players who could excel with extended opportunities.
Toronto Raptors vs. Miami Heat Player Prop
Ochai Agbaji OVER 1.5 Made 3-Pointers (+128)
When Barnes previously sat, Ochai Agbaji connected on two or more 3-pointers in eight out of a possible 11 games, converting a team-best 45.3 percent of his attempts from behind the arc.
The presence of rookie Ja'Kobe Walter could cut into some of his minutes with these new-look lineups, but head coach Darko Rajakovic has continued to give Agbaji a healthy dose of playing time in games which remain competitive. It's a gamble at +128, but Miami only ranks 21st in opponent's 3-point efficiency at home (36.6 percent), so I'm taking a flyer here.
Toronto Raptors vs. Miami Heat Betting Trends
- Bam Adebayo has failed to exceed 22.5 points + assists in four of his last five games (23.2 points + assists/game average).
- RJ Barrett has exceeded 11.5 rebounds + assists in five of his last six games vs. bottom-10 defenses for rebounds allowed (13.7 rebounds + assists/game average).
- Haywood Highsmith has failed to exceed 11.5 points + rebounds + assists in seven of his last nine games at home (9.4 points + rebounds + assists/game average).
*all betting trends courtesy of Outlier
