Before the 2024-25 NBA regular season got underway, we projected the final win totals of all 30 teams across the Association and assessed the value for going OVER or UNDER on each number.
Now that we've officially gone through 82 games, we can take a look back at some of the projections that were made and shake our collective heads in disbelief over how off some of those ultimately shaped out to be.
Some of the predictions ("some" being generous in scope) went completely off the rails, and here's why that was the case for a few of the bigger disappointments in particular.
| Team | 2024-25 Win Total Prediction | Initial Odds | Final Record | Correct? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Hawks | UNDER 36.5 | -112 | 40-42 | No |
| Boston Celtics | UNDER 58.5 | -115 | 61-21 | No |
| Brooklyn Nets | UNDER 18.5 | -105 | 26-56 | No |
| Charlotte Hornets | OVER 31.5 | -106 | 19-63 | No |
| Chicago Bulls | UNDER 28.5 | -118 | 39-43 | No |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | OVER 48.5 | -110 | 64-18 | Yes |
| Dallas Mavericks | OVER 48.5 | -110 | 39-43 | No |
| Denver Nuggets | OVER 49.5 | -106 | 50-32 | Yes |
| Detroit Pistons | OVER 24.5 | -115 | 44-38 | Yes |
| Golden State Warriors | OVER 43.5 | -110 | 48-34 | Yes |
| Houston Rockets | UNDER 42.5 | -108 | 52-30 | No |
| Indiana Pacers | UNDER 47.5 | -112 | 50-32 | No |
| Los Angeles Clippers | UNDER 37.5 | -115 | 50-32 | No |
| Los Angeles Lakers | UNDER 42.5 | -110 | 50-32 | No |
| Memphis Grizzlies | UNDER 46.5 | -108 | 48-34 | No |
| Miami Heat | OVER 43.5 | -105 | 37-45 | No |
| Milwaukee Bucks | OVER 49.5 | -104 | 48-34 | No |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | OVER 51.5 | -122 | 49-33 | No |
| New Orleans Pelicans | OVER 45.5 | -105 | 21-61 | No |
| New York Knicks | UNDER 53.5 | -118 | 51-31 | Yes |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | OVER 57.5 | +100 | 68-14 | Yes |
| Orlando Magic | OVER 47.5 | -102 | 41-41 | No |
| Philadelphia 76ers | OVER 50.5 | +100 | 24-58 | No |
| Phoenix Suns | OVER 48.5 | -106 | 36-46 | No |
| Portland Trail Blazers | UNDER 20.5 | -104 | 36-46 | No |
| Sacramento Kings | OVER 46.5 | -104 | 40-42 | No |
| San Antonio Spurs | UNDER 35.5 | -110 | 34-48 | Yes |
| Toronto Raptors | UNDER 29.5 | -118 | 30-52 | No |
| Utah Jazz | UNDER 27.5 | -110 | 17-65 | Yes |
| Washington Wizards | UNDER 19.5 | -122 | 18-64 | Yes |
Philadelphia 76ers
Why we projected an OVER on 50.5 wins
The three-headed monster of former league Most Valuable Player Joel Embiid, All-Star guard Tyrese Maxey, and the acquisition of Paul George seemed great on paper. Surrounding them with veterans like Eric Gordon and Andre Drummond, paired with the upside of rookie point guard Jared McCain, made many believe that the team was finally well-equipped to reach a conference finals for the first time since "The Process" began.
Why The Record Went UNDER 50.5 Wins
The easy answer is the roster was completely ravaged by injuries. Embiid only ended up competing in 19 games as his left knee continued to be problematic, Maxey dealt with a sprained right finger which ended up getting re-injured, and George needed to receive injections in his left groin and left knee. Even McCain, who appeared well on his way towards capturing Rookie of the Year honors, tore the meniscus in his left knee after 23 appearances.
To be fair, though, in the games in which all three of Embiid, Maxey, and George were active, Philadelphia only went 7-8 in the win-loss column.
Phoenix Suns
Why We Projected An OVER On 48.5 Wins
The Phoenix Suns finished with a 49-33 record in 2023-24, and replacing head coach Frank Vogel with Mike Budenholzer after the team bowed out in a clean sweep in the opening round of the playoffs was designed to raise their ceiling even further. Another year of Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and Bradley Beal playing together to further build on-court chemistry was supposed to have helped, as well.
Why The Record Went UNDER 48.5 Wins
They ranked 27th in defense by giving up 117.7 points per 100 possessions, and that worsened coming back from the All-Star break to 29th and 121.7 points allowed per 100 possessions. The return on investment from Beal was also lacking to say the least, and that's putting it generously. His numbers dipped across the board, and his player efficiency rating of 15.4 was his weakest since his third year with the Washington Wizards in 2014-15.
Especially over the final few weeks with Durant missing some time, the lack of effort on both ends was both apparent and quite embarrassing. Phoenix dropped eight-straight games from March 26 through April 9, all of which came by double-digit margins and five by 20 or more points.
Los Angeles Clippers
Why We Projected An UNDER On 37.5 Wins
The departure of George to Philadelphia, paired with the perpetually-injured Kawhi Leonard, was enough to stir a high degree of pessimism surrounding the legitimacy of the Los Angeles Clippers still being a top-four caliber team in the Western Conference. Going UNDER equated to a drop of at least 14 wins, but that's how down on the team a vast majority were being.
Why The Record Went OVER 48.5 Wins
James Harden reestablished himself as one of the premier floor generals in basketball, Norman Powell warranted serious All-Star consideration, Ivica Zubac put himself in contention for Defensive Player of the Year, and the team went 27-11 in games which Leonard competed in.
Los Angeles' defense was its bread and butter, holding opponents to 109.4 points per 100 possessions. That's an improvement of 5.2 points over the previous season.
