With Selection Sunday over, the 3 vs 14 matchups are set. The No. 3 seeds are: Wisconsin, Kentucky, Texas Tech and Iowa St. They will be competing against the four No. 14 seeds in: Lipscomb, UNC Wilmington, Montana and Troy.
From a bettors stance, those No. 14 seeds haven't been reliable underdogs both SU and ATS. Since 2016, the No. 3 seed has only been defeated three times, though 23 times overall since 1985. But, with a pair of those occasions coming in 2021 or later, are the No. 14 seeds becoming more competitive in this decade?
How many times has the no. 3 seed been upset by the no. 14 seed?
Since 1985, No. 3 seeds hold a commanding 133-23 SU record. Of the 23 upsets in that span, 12 of them were decided by a three-pointer or fewer. Notably, half of those 12 games were victories by a single point. The higher seed saw most success between 2013-2016, where No. 14 seeds pulled off at least one upset in four consecutive seasons.
The last No. 3 seed defeat is fresh from 2024 with Oakland stopping Kentucky, a notorious blue blood program, 80-76. The Wildcats entered as generous 13.5-point favorites but Jack Gohlke had too much luck along the perimeter, sinking a tenner from beyond the arc to pull off 2024's first true upset in the Big Dance. Just a few seasons prior, uncelebrated Abilene Christian shocked No. 3 Texas, 53-52, after a Reggie Miller deep shot with one second on the clock.
What Seed Has The Recent ATS Edge?
Since 1996, No. 3 seeds are 63-48-1 ATS to hold a slight betting edge over the No. 14 seeds, holding a 56.7% cover rate. Notably, 24 of the last 30 spreads being set at 10.5 points or more but it seems the large lines don't help the No. 14 seeds out. In the last five seasons, the No. 14 seeds are still an unpredictable 7-13 ATS.
Odds of 14 seed beating 3 seed
Of the 156 3 vs 14 matchups accounted for, mathematically, the No. 14 seed has a 14.7% chance of defeating the No. 3 seed outright in March Madness.
no. 3 seed vs no. 14 seed History
| #3 Seed | Score | #14 Seed | Score | Date | ATS Win | Win Seed | ATS Seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kentucky | 76 | Oakland | 80 | 2024-03-21 | Oakland | 14 | 14 |
| Illinois | 85 | Morehead St. | 69 | 2024-03-21 | Illinois | 3 | 3 |
| Baylor | 92 | Colgate | 67 | 2024-03-22 | Baylor | 3 | 3 |
| Creighton | 77 | Akron | 60 | 2024-03-21 | Creighton | 3 | 3 |
| Xavier | 72 | Kennesaw State | 67 | 2023-03-17 | Kennesaw State | 3 | 14 |
| Baylor | 74 | UCSB | 56 | 2023-03-17 | Baylor | 3 | 3 |
| Gonzaga | 82 | Grand Canyon | 70 | 2023-03-18 | Grand Canyon | 3 | 14 |
| Kansas State | 77 | Montana State | 65 | 2023-03-18 | Kansas State | 3 | 3 |
| Wisconsin | 67 | Colgate | 60 | 2022-03-18 | Colgate | 3 | 14 |
| Purdue | 78 | Yale | 56 | 2022-03-18 | Purdue | 3 | 3 |
| Texas Tech | 97 | Montana State | 62 | 2022-03-18 | Texas Tech | 3 | 3 |
| Tennessee | 88 | Longwood | 56 | 2022-03-17 | Tennessee | 3 | 3 |
| West Virginia | 84 | Morehead State | 67 | 2021-03-19 | West Virginia | 3 | 3 |
| Arkansas | 85 | Colgate | 68 | 2021-03-19 | Arkansas | 3 | 3 |
| Texas | 52 | Abilene Christian | 53 | 2021-03-20 | Abilene Christian | 14 | 14 |
| Kansas | 93 | Eastern Washington | 84 | 2021-03-20 | Eastern Washington | 3 | 14 |
| LSU | 79 | Yale | 74 | 2019-03-21 | Yale | 3 | 14 |
| Texas Tech | 72 | Northern Kentucky | 57 | 2019-03-22 | Texas Tech | 3 | 3 |
| Purdue | 61 | Old Dominion | 48 | 2019-03-21 | Purdue | 3 | 3 |
| Houston | 84 | Georgia State | 55 | 2019-03-22 | Houston | 3 | 3 |
| Tennessee | 73 | Wright State | 47 | 2018-03-15 | Tennessee | 3 | 3 |
| Texas Tech | 70 | Stephen F. Austin | 60 | 2018-03-16 | Stephen F. Austin | 3 | 14 |
| Michigan | 61 | Montana | 47 | 2018-03-15 | Michigan | 3 | 3 |
| Michigan State | 82 | Bucknell | 78 | 2018-03-16 | Bucknell | 3 | 14 |
| Baylor | 91 | New Mexico State | 73 | 2017-03-17 | Baylor | 3 | 3 |
| Oregon | 93 | Iona | 77 | 2017-03-17 | Oregon | 3 | 3 |
| Florida State | 86 | Florida Gulf Coast | 80 | 2017-03-16 | Florida Gulf Coast | 3 | 14 |
| UCLA | 97 | Kent State | 80 | 2017-03-17 | Kent State | 3 | 14 |
| Utah | 80 | Fresno State | 69 | 2016-03-17 | Utah | 3 | 3 |
| Texas A&M | 92 | Green Bay | 65 | 2016-03-18 | Texas A&M | 3 | 3 |
| West Virginia | 56 | Stephen F. Austin | 70 | 2016-03-18 | Stephen F. Austin | 14 | 14 |
| Miami | 79 | Buffalo | 72 | 2016-03-17 | Buffalo | 3 | 14 |
| Oklahoma | 69 | Albany | 60 | 2015-03-19 | Albany | 3 | 14 |
| Notre Dame | 69 | Northeastern | 65 | 2015-03-19 | Northeastern | 3 | 14 |
| Iowa State | 59 | UAB | 60 | 2015-03-19 | UAB | 14 | 14 |
| Baylor | 56 | Georgia State | 57 | 2015-03-19 | Georgia State | 14 | 14 |
| Iowa State | 93 | North Carolina Central | 75 | 2014-03-21 | Iowa State | 3 | 3 |
| Creighton | 76 | Louisiana-Lafayette | 66 | 2014-03-21 | Louisiana-Lafayette | 3 | 14 |
| Duke | 71 | Mercer | 78 | 2014-03-21 | Mercer | 14 | 14 |
| Syracuse | 77 | Western Michigan | 53 | 2014-03-20 | Syracuse | 3 | 3 |
| Florida | 79 | Northwestern State | 47 | 2013-03-22 | Florida | 3 | 3 |
| New Mexico | 62 | Harvard | 68 | 2013-03-21 | Harvard | 14 | 14 |
| Marquette | 59 | Davidson | 58 | 2013-03-21 | Davidson | 3 | 14 |
| Michigan State | 65 | Valparaiso | 54 | 2013-03-21 | Michigan State | 3 | 3 |
| Georgetown | 74 | Belmont | 59 | 2012-03-16 | Georgetown | 3 | 3 |
| Florida State | 66 | St. Bonaventure | 63 | 2012-03-16 | St. Bonaventure | 3 | 14 |
| Baylor | 68 | South Dakota State | 60 | 2012-03-15 | Baylor | 3 | 3 |
| Marquette | 88 | BYU | 68 | 2012-03-15 | Marquette | 3 | 3 |
| Syracuse | 77 | Indiana State | 60 | 2011-03-18 | Syracuse | 3 | 3 |
| Purdue | 65 | Saint Peter’s | 43 | 2011-03-18 | Purdue | 3 | 3 |
| Connecticut | 81 | Bucknell | 52 | 2011-03-17 | Connecticut | 3 | 3 |
| BYU | 74 | Wofford | 66 | 2011-03-17 | Wofford | 3 | 14 |
| Pittsburgh | 89 | Oakland | 66 | 2010-03-19 | Pittsburgh | 3 | 3 |
| New Mexico | 62 | Montana | 57 | 2010-03-18 | Montana | 3 | 14 |
| Georgetown | 83 | Ohio | 97 | 2010-03-18 | Ohio | 14 | 14 |
| Baylor | 68 | Sam Houston State | 59 | 2010-03-18 | Sam Houston State | 3 | 14 |
| Missouri | 78 | Cornell | 59 | 2009-03-20 | Missouri | 3 | 3 |
| Kansas | 84 | North Dakota State | 74 | 2009-03-20 | Kansas | 3 | 3 |
| Syracuse | 59 | Stephen F. Austin | 44 | 2009-03-20 | Syracuse | 3 | 3 |
| Villanova | 80 | American | 67 | 2009-03-19 | American | 3 | 14 |
| Louisville | 79 | Boise State | 61 | 2008-03-21 | Louisville | 3 | 3 |
| Wisconsin | 71 | CS Fullerton | 56 | 2008-03-20 | Wisconsin | 3 | 3 |
| Stanford | 77 | Cornell | 53 | 2008-03-20 | Stanford | 3 | 3 |
| Xavier | 73 | Georgia | 61 | 2008-03-20 | Xavier | 3 | 3 |
| Oregon | 58 | Miami (Ohio) | 56 | 2007-03-16 | Miami (Ohio) | 3 | 14 |
| Pittsburgh | 79 | Wright State | 58 | 2007-03-15 | Pittsburgh | 3 | 3 |
| Texas A&M | 68 | Pennsylvania | 52 | 2007-03-15 | Texas A&M | 3 | 3 |
| Washington State | 70 | Oral Roberts | 54 | 2007-03-15 | Washington State | 3 | 3 |
| North Carolina | 69 | Murray State | 65 | 2006-03-17 | Murray State | 3 | 14 |
| Iowa | 63 | Northwestern State | 64 | 2006-03-17 | Northwestern State | 14 | 14 |
| Gonzaga | 79 | Xavier | 75 | 2006-03-16 | Xavier | 3 | 14 |
| Florida | 76 | South Alabama | 50 | 2006-03-16 | Florida | 3 | 3 |
| Kansas | 63 | Bucknell | 64 | 2005-03-18 | Bucknell | 14 | 14 |
| Gonzaga | 74 | Winthrop | 64 | 2005-03-17 | Winthrop | 3 | 14 |
| Arizona | 66 | Utah State | 53 | 2005-03-17 | Arizona | 3 | 3 |
| Oklahoma | 84 | Niagara | 67 | 2005-03-17 | Oklahoma | 3 | 3 |
| Pittsburgh | 53 | Central Florida | 44 | 2004-03-19 | Central Florida | 3 | 14 |
| Georgia Tech | 65 | Northern Iowa | 60 | 2004-03-19 | Northern Iowa | 3 | 14 |
| North Carolina State | 61 | Louisiana-Lafayette | 52 | 2004-03-19 | North Carolina State | 3 | 3 |
| Texas | 66 | Princeton | 49 | 2004-03-18 | Texas | 3 | 3 |
| Syracuse | 76 | Manhattan | 65 | 2003-03-21 | Syracuse | 3 | 3 |
| Xavier | 71 | Troy | 59 | 2003-03-21 | PUSH | 3 | |
| Marquette | 72 | Holy Cross | 68 | 2003-03-20 | Holy Cross | 3 | 14 |
| Duke | 67 | Colorado State | 57 | 2003-03-20 | Colorado State | 3 | 14 |
| Pittsburgh | 71 | Cent Conn State | 54 | 2002-03-15 | Pittsburgh | 3 | 3 |
| Mississippi State | 70 | McNeese State | 58 | 2002-03-15 | Mississippi State | 3 | 3 |
| Georgia | 85 | Murray State | 68 | 2002-03-15 | Georgia | 3 | 3 |
| Arizona | 86 | Santa Barbara | 81 | 2002-03-14 | Santa Barbara | 3 | 14 |
| Florida | 69 | Western Kentucky | 57 | 2001-03-16 | Florida | 3 | 3 |
| Mississippi | 72 | Iona | 70 | 2001-03-16 | Iona | 3 | 14 |
| Maryland | 83 | George Mason | 80 | 2001-03-15 | George Mason | 3 | 14 |
| Boston College | 68 | Southern Utah | 65 | 2001-03-15 | Southern Utah | 3 | 14 |
| Oklahoma State | 86 | Hofstra | 66 | 2000-03-17 | Oklahoma State | 3 | 3 |
| Ohio State | 87 | Appalachian State | 61 | 2000-03-17 | Ohio State | 3 | 3 |
| Maryland | 74 | Iona | 59 | 2000-03-16 | Maryland | 3 | 3 |
| Oklahoma | 74 | Winthrop | 50 | 2000-03-16 | Oklahoma | 3 | 3 |
| Kentucky | 82 | New Mexico State | 60 | 1999-03-12 | Kentucky | 3 | 3 |
| Cincinnati | 72 | George Mason | 48 | 1999-03-12 | Cincinnati | 3 | 3 |
| St. John’s | 69 | Samford | 43 | 1999-03-11 | St. John’s | 3 | 3 |
| North Carolina | 74 | Weber State | 76 | 1999-03-11 | Weber State | 14 | 14 |
| Michigan | 80 | Davidson | 61 | 1998-03-13 | Michigan | 3 | 3 |
| Stanford | 67 | College of Charleston | 57 | 1998-03-13 | College of Charleston | 3 | 14 |
| South Carolina | 61 | Richmond | 62 | 1998-03-12 | Richmond | 14 | 14 |
| Utah | 85 | San Francisco | 68 | 1998-03-12 | Utah | 3 | 3 |
| Wake Forest | 68 | Saint Mary’s | 46 | 1997-03-14 | Wake Forest | 3 | 3 |
| New Mexico | 59 | Old Dominion | 55 | 1997-03-14 | Old Dominion | 3 | 14 |
| Georgia | 70 | Chattanooga | 73 | 1997-03-14 | Chattanooga | 14 | 14 |
| Cincinnati | 86 | Butler | 69 | 1997-03-13 | Cincinnati | 3 | 3 |
| Texas Tech | 74 | Northern Illinois | 73 | 1996-03-15 | Northern Illinois | 3 | 14 |
| Villanova | 92 | Portland | 58 | 1996-03-15 | Villanova | 3 | 3 |
| Georgia Tech | 90 | Austin Peay | 79 | 1996-03-15 | Austin Peay | 3 | 14 |
| Arizona | 90 | Valparaiso | 51 | 1996-03-15 | Arizona | 3 | 3 |
Pulling off the upset is one tough task, but navigating the rest of the bracket is a different beast for No. 14 seeds, as only two have ever advanced past the second round, Chattanooga in 1997 and Cleveland State in 1986.
Related News
March Madness 3 vs 14 Betting History FAQ
Where can I bet on the 3 vs 14 seed March Madness games?
If you are looking for the best place to bet on the 3 vs 14 seed March Madness games, Odds Shark has compiled a list of the Best March Madness Betting Sites for you to wager on this spring. The guide reviews the top NCAAB tournament sportsbooks and gives insight into the best place to bet on March Madness this year for casual fans and experienced bettors.
How do I bet on the 3 vs 14 seed March Madness games?
There are multiple ways to bet on the 3 vs 14 seed March Madness games, including a moneyline bet, a spread bet, or many different props. Odds Shark's How to Bet on March Madness guide outlines all the bet formats you can utilize during the NCAAB tournament and some general March Madness betting tips for each.
When was the last time a 14 seed beat a 3 seed in March Madness?
The last time a No. 14 seed beat a 3 seed in March Madness was in 2024 when the underdog Oakland Golden Grizzlies defeated the No. 3 Kentucky Wildcats 80-76.
