How to Bet College Football Win Totals

Betting college football win totals isn’t just about picking your favorite team to go OVER or UNDER a number, manifesting a good season. It's about breaking down factors like roster turnover, coaching changes, team schedule and conference strength to make the smartest bets.

In this guide, we’ll break down how to bet OVER/UNDER win totals for NCAA football and what factors to watch before placing your wager.

What Are College Football Win Totals?

Sportsbooks set projected win totals for every FBS team before the season starts. Your job is to bet OVER (the team wins more games than projected) or UNDER (the team wins fewer).

An example of an OVER/UNDER win total bet would look like:

Texas Longhorns – Win Total: 9.5

OVER 9.5 (-110)
UNDER 9.5 (-110)

If you take the OVER, they must win 10+ games. The UNDER hits at nine or fewer.

But don’t bet blindly—win totals are carefully crafted by oddsmakers. The edge comes from evaluating the details.

How to Bet OVER/UNDER On NCAA football Win Totals

Here are some tips, tricks and strategies to keep in mind before locking in a college football win total futures bet.

track roster turnover

College football rosters change constantly due to players graduating, hitting the transfer portal, or heading to the NFL. The key positions to keep an eye on are:

Quarterbacks: Is the starting QB back? If not, who’s taking over—and have they seen real game action, or are they still unproven? Just look at the hype around Arch Manning this year. He’s never started a game, but he’s already a Heisman favorite heading into his first full season as a starter.
Offensive Line: Chemistry is key here. Teams bringing back four or five starters up front usually play better than expected, especially early in the year. It factors in better protection for the quarterback and a smoother run game. A solid line is crucial to a successful offense in college football.
Defense: They say defense wins championships. If a team’s defensive unit are mostly new, that can make their run and passing defense a mess—which usually means giving up more points and stacking up more losses.

coaching changes

Everyone pays attention to head coaches, but it’s usually the offensive and defensive coordinators who have the biggest impact on win totals as their play calling can make or break a final score.

New Offensive Coordinators: Switching up the offense requires for players to get used to it and the offense might not click right away. Is the new OC aggressive or rely on ground attack? That stuff really changes how games go.

First-Year Head Coaches: New head coaches usually mean growing pains. Just look at Alabama, in their first year without Nick Saban, the Tide finished 9-4 under Kalen DeBoer and missed double-digit wins for the first time since 2007.

break down the schedule

Don’t just glance at a team’s opponents—go week-by-week.

Tough Openers: Take Texas and Ohio State, both with 2025 win totals of 9.5 or higher — they face off in Week 1, so right away, one team gets a win and the other already has a loss on the board.
Travel Demands: Last season showed how conference realignment can mess with teams. Michigan State got hammered 31-10 at Oregon and Michigan also took a tough mid-season loss on the road at Washington. Even just having back-to-back road games can throw teams off and lead to some surprising upsets.

Also consider:

Conference Strength: How deep is the league? The Big Ten and SEC (for now) have become stacked with new members. You can always expect a lower level program group to get steamrolled by their powerhouse opponents. Even after Vanderbilt pulling off that wild upset over No. 1 Alabama in 2024, nobody’s giving them much of a shot. Their win total for 2025 is still just 4.5.
Out-of-Conference Opponents: Weak non-conference schedules can make a team’s win total look better than it really is. But, if a team has to face a powerhouse early, they might also be handed an early loss. That’s where teams like Notre Dame get lucky. Nobody is eager to schedule last year’s national title runner-up, so the Irish avoid those tough early matchups and head into the season with a 10.5 win total.

Look into the betting market

Public bettors love the OVER. Everyone likes to be optimistic in the preseason (I know I sometimes do). That bias can create value on the UNDER.

Watch Line Movement: If a total opens at 7.5 and gets bet to 8.5, the UNDER may now have better value. Stay curious!
Consensus Tools: Use public betting tools, like our consensus picks, to judge and figure out if you want to follow or fade the public.

College Football Win Totals betting tools

Odds Shark College Football Database: Historical betting trends by team, matchup, conference, location and even month. Our CFB database is a great tool to break down a schedule and spot any patterns that might point to a win or loss. And when you’re betting win totals, every single win matters.
Betting Trends Page: Our betting trends give you game-by-game trends for every matchup (ATS, SU and OVER/UNDER). Want to see if Kansas State struggles vs. Iowa State or if UNLV hits the OVER at home? We’ve got you covered. It’s an easy way to see if a team’s win total might get crushed early in the season.