It’s the first season as a power conference program for SMU, and the newly minted ACC member rolls into its opener as a 26.5-point favorite at Nevada. While that’s a big number on the road, quarterback Preston Stone and lots of other starters return for a Mustangs squad that averaged 38.7 points per game on its way to an 11-3 record last year.
There won’t be nearly as much firepower on the home sideline in Reno. After consecutive 2-10 seasons, the Wolf Pack fired head coach Ken Wilson and brought in former Texas defensive coordinator Jeff Choate to run the show. If the Mustangs are going to go OVER the total for the sixth time in nine games dating back to last season, they may have to do it all themselves.
SMU vs Nevada Odds
Matchup Page: SMU Mustangs vs Nevada Wolf Pack, 8 pm ET
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| SMU Mustangs | -26.5 (-110) | -3200 | OVER 56.5 (-110) |
| Nevada Wolf Pack | +26.5 (-110) | +1400 | UNDER 56.5 (-110) |
Odds as of August 20
SMU Vs nevada Picks - Week 0
Rarely has a former Group of 5 team entered a power league more prepared than SMU, which added transfers from Georgia, Oregon, Oklahoma, Arkansas and West Virginia to its already-loaded roster. The Mustangs do everything well on both sides of the ball, while the Wolf Pack are starting over. All of which makes that SMU point spread of -26.5 appealing, even though the Mustangs are on the road.
How bad was Nevada last season? The Pack averaged 17.3 points per game, managed just 17 sacks, and lost to FBS Idaho 33-6. Choate was last a head coach in 2019, at FBS Montana State. Nevada managed only six touchdown passes all season, and Nebraska transfer Chubba Purdy (little brother to Brock, quarterback for the San Francisco 49ers) is among those pushing incumbent QB Brendon Lewis for snaps behind center.
All of that to say SMU -26.5 is the only play here, even in the Biggest Little City in the World. Choate did good things at Montana State and Texas, and Wolf Pack offensive coordinator Matt Lubick is a proven commodity from his days at Oregon and Washington. But this is a massive Nevada rebuild that’s going to take time, and the Wolf Pack will need a superhuman effort to keep this one close in the second half.
SMU Vs Nevada Week 0 Pick: SMU Mustangs -26.5 (-110)
sMU Vs Nevada news
In his weekly news conference on Monday, Choate told reporters in Reno that Lewis would start the opener against SMU, and that Nevada plans to play only one quarterback in the game. While Lewis tossed just two TDs last season despite starting 10 games, Choate said the QB didn’t throw an interception during fall camp. Purdy meanwhile missed much of fall camp with a shoulder issue and was scheduled to undergo an MRI.
SMU Vs nevada prop Pick: SMU OVER 42.5 Team Total (+105)
The Mustangs exceeded 45 points five times last season—against Navy, North Texas, Tulsa, Temple and Prairie View—on their way to finishing eighth in FBS in points per game. Coach Rhett Lashlee’s team can run and throw the ball with equal efficiency, and the OVER 42.5 team total is appealing because it’s the first one with a positive moneyline value.
While Nevada’s defense should be tougher and more disciplined with Choate at the helm, this remains an undersized front seven that struggles to get pressure on the quarterback, and the man-on-man mismatches should be obviously from the start. The last time we saw Nevada’s defense, after all, they were on the wrong end of a 42-6 home loss to Wyoming.
sMU Vs nevada Betting Trends
- While SMU went 8-6 ATS last season, the Mustangs closed the 2023 campaign on a hot streak by covering six of their last nine. Overall, SMU last year covered six lines of -20.5 points or
greater. - Since Jay Norvell left Reno to become coach at Colorado State following the 2021 campaign,
the Wolf Pack are 4-20 outright and 10-14 ATS. Nevada is just 3-9 ATS at home over that same
span. - The 26.5-point line is the second-largest for Nevada at home since at least 2000, according to
Chris Murray of Nevada SportsNet. The only larger line for the home team during that span was +28 points to Kansas in 2023, a game the Wolf Pack lost 31-24. It turned out to be Nevada’s only loss by single-digits all season.
