The Houston Texans host the Buffalo Bills and are catching a point on the spread in a matchup of two 3-1 teams who are capable of making a deep postseason run. The total in this game is set at 47 or 47.5 depending on the sportsbook.
The Texans are fresh off a victory vs. the Jaguars, while the Bills will be looking to erase memories of an awful 35-10 loss to the Ravens.
Keep reading to see my analysis of this game and how I'll be approaching it from a betting perspective.
Bills vs Texans Odds Week 5
Buffalo Bills vs Houston Texans, Oct. 6, 1 pm ET
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Totals |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | +1 (-110) | +100 | O 47 (-110) |
| Houston Texans | -1 (-110) | -120 | U 47 (-110) |
Odds as of October 5 via Caesars Sportsbook
Bills vs Texans Picks Week 5
Bills - Texans Over 47 (-110)
In a matchup of two teams with MVP-caliber QBs and defenses with injuries to important players, I'm fully expecting a shootout in this one. This is an important game for two teams with playoff aspirations and I expect both coaches to empty their bag of tricks while putting points on the board.
While it's not official yet, I anticipate the Texans once again to be without the services of safety Jimmie Ward, who is nicknamed "the eraser" because he can make up for mistakes made in front of him. Without Ward in the lineup, we saw Jacksonville WR Brian Thomas Jr. average over 14 YPC last week vs. the Texans. Josh Allen will be ready to feast on this Texans defense that has underperformed this season.
CJ Stroud will have plenty of opportunities to exploit the Bills too, especially since he's expected to get WR Tank Dell back. With a full complement of weapons, expect Stroud to attack a defense that will definitely be without Matt Milano and may once again be without CB Taron Johnson and LB Terrel Bernard.
The Bills are the NFL's second-highest-scoring team (122 points) and while the Texans have only put up 79 points so far, they're long overdue for an offensive explosion we all know they're capable of.
Bills vs Texans News
It was a big surprise when we learned Thursday that Bills DT Ed Oliver was injured in practice. OIiver has been confirmed out for the game along with safety Taylor Rapp (concussion).
Will Krunkel of Fox26 Houston reported that Tank Dell (Chest) is expected to return to the lineup for the Texans after missing last week's game vs. Jacksonville. Texans coach Demeco Ryans is calling Dell "day-to-day" so be sure to monitor his practice status throughout the week.
Bills vs Texans Props Week 5
Texans -1 (-120)
Okay, okay I know this isn't a prop bet but I'm not seeing anything I like in the prop market for this game so I'm using this space for a point spread bet. After the injury news to Oliver and Rapp (see above) came out, I ended up betting on the Texans even though I'm not getting the best of the number.
Be sure to check back here later in the week and on our best NFL Prop bets page.
Bills vs Texans Betting Trends
- Nico Collins has gone over 83.5 receiving yards in 6 of his last 7 games according to Outlier
- Josh Allen has gone under 239.5 passing yards in 4 of his last 5 road games according to Outlier
- The total has gone OVER in 6 of Buffalo's last 9 games
- Buffalo is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games
- Buffalo is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games against Houston
- Houston is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
- The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Houston's last 20 games
