The undefeated Kansas City Chiefs visit the San Francisco 49ers as +1 underdogs in a Week 7 game that's a Super Bowl rematch featuring two of the best teams in the NFL. Oddsmakers set the total for this game at 47, which was the exact total (25-22) from Super Bowl LVIII.
The 49ers are 3-3 and need this game more than the Chiefs, who have a two-game lead in the AFC West. Kansas City head coach Andy Reid is lethal off a bye week, but the 49ers are off a mini bye week of sorts as they last played Thursday October 10.
Keep reading for my analysis of this Chiefs vs. 49ers game and see how I'm approaching it from a wagering perspective.
Chiefs vs 49ers Odds Week 7
Kansas City Chiefs vs. San Francisco 49ers, Oct. 20, 4:25 pm ET
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
| Kansas City Chiefs | +1 (-105) | +100 | O 47 (-110) |
| San Francisco 49ers | -1 (-115) | -120 | U 47 (-110) |
Odds as of October 16 via Caesars
Chiefs vs 49ers Week 7 Picks
49ers U23.5 (+100)
The 49ers know the way to beat the Chiefs is by controlling time of possession and limiting Patrick Mahomes chances. With that in mind, I'm expecting the 49ers to have a methodical run heavy approach in this game which would keep the clock moving and create a lower scoring game.
The Chiefs defense hasn't allowed more than 17 points in its last three games and the 49ers are a lot weaker on offense than they were in the Super Bowl when they had Christian McCaffrey.
Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnolo is Kyle Shanahan's worst nightmare as his in-game adjustments have proven to be the difference when these teams have met. Look for Spagnolo to frustrate a 49ers team that only scored 23 points vs. a bad Cardinals defense two weeks ago.
Sure, the 49ers offense has elite weapons, and Brock Purdy is playing really well, but a +100 price for a team going up against a coaching staff that's always had its number feels like a great spot.
Chiefs vs 49ers Week 7 Props
Brock Purdy over 15.5 rush yards (-115)
I can't explain how, but Brock Purdy has suddenly become very dangerous with his legs. This isn't a case where Purdy has just decided to run the ball more often and show off skills he already had. Instead, it actually looks like Purdy has become a better runner as we've seen him make impressive juke moves we aren't accustomed to seeing from him.
Purdy has gone over this number in 3 of the last 4 weeks and is averaging 26 rush yards per game over that stretch.
The Chiefs have played statue quarterbacks the last several weeks (Kirk Cousins, Justin Herbert, and Derek Carr), but don't forget they gave up over 100 rush yard to Lamar Jackson in Week 1.
Chiefs vs 49ers News
Chiefs veteran running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire returned to practice this week and that's big news because he's on the verge of making his season debut. This week Chiefs coach Andy Reid said, "We'll see" when asked if Edwards-Helaire will play in this game. With Isiah Pacheco still on IR, the Chiefs are rolling with old friend Kareem Hunt, but Edwards-Helaire would be a welcome addition.
Another player, 49ers rookie wide receiver Ricky Pearsall could theoretically make his season debut. Pearsall was shot in the chest and has missed the first six games of the season but has been practicing in full this week.
Chiefs vs 49ers Week 7 Betting Trends
- Brock Purdy has gone over 254.5 pass yards in four of his last five games according to Outlier
- Kansas City is 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games and 10-0 SU in its last 10 games
- The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Kansas City's last 12 games
- San Francisco is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games
- The total has gone OVER in 6 of San Francisco's last 8 games
- San Francisco is 12-6 SU in its last 18 games
