On Sunday Night Football, the Atlanta Falcons (8-7) face the Washington Commanders (10-5) in what should be an exciting contest between rookie quarterbacks Michael Penix Jr. and Jayden Daniels. With playoff implications on the line, the travelling Falcons are the 4.5-point underdogs at FanDuel with the total set at a lofty 47.5 points.
The Commanders can clinch a playoff spot with a win, while this game has a massive impact on the Falcons’ chances to win the NFC South. Which rookie quarterback will emerge victorious in primetime? Let’s dive into the matchup and find out.
Falcons vs Commanders Odds Week 17
Falcons vs Commanders, Dec. 29, 8:20 pm ET
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Totals |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Falcons | +4.5 (-115) | +166 | O47.5 (-104) |
| Washington Commanders | -4.5 (-105) | -198 | U47.5 (-118) |
Odds as of Dec. 24 at FanDuel
Falcons vs Commanders Picks - Week 17
OVER47.5 Points (-104) at FanDuel
Falcons offensive coordinator Zac Robinson has to be thrilled. After Kirk Cousins’ complete lack of mobility saddled the offense all year, Michael Penix Jr. made his debut last week and showed the talent that made him a first-round pick. He finished with 202 passing yards and a solid 77.7 PFF passing grade, and his lone interception was the fault of Kyle Pitts, who made a pathetic attempt at a catch. Penix was also a perfect 11-11 on throws between the numbers for 143 yards and eight first downs.
Marshon Lattimore's debut should boost Washington’s defense, but the Commanders still rank 22nd against the pass in DVOA and 23rd in EPA. The Falcons will likely lean on their rushing attack, as well, against a Commanders defense ranked 25th against the run in DVOA and EPA. Washington also ranks 31st in defensive line yards allowed to running backs, so Bijan Robinson should be able to churn out yardage here.
Pay attention to the injury statuses of Drake London and Marshon Lattimore in this game, as both could have a big part to play in how this turns out - they are both questionable early in the week. If Lattimore is out, it’s tough to have much faith in the Commanders’ underwhelming set of cornerbacks in this game.
Jayden Daniels is coming off one of his most impressive games of the season, posting five touchdowns against the Eagles, arguably the best defense in the NFL. The Falcons have a vulnerable pass defense, ranking 24th in DVOA. However, the losses of Noah Brown and Austin Ekeler have hurt the Commanders’ passing game, which already didn’t have much firepower outside of Terry McLaurin.
The Commanders played in a slugfest against the Eagles last week, while the Falcons should enter this game fresher after they coasted to a win over the Giants. That could be an advantage for Atlanta here, but both rookie quarterbacks should have a path to production against defenses that have left much to be desired this season. Take the OVER in what should be an exciting shootout between Penix and Daniels.
Falcons vs Commanders Prop Pick Week 17
Darnell Mooney Longest Reception OVER (Not Available Yet)
Michael Penix Jr. was one of the most productive deep-ball quarterbacks in the country last year, and he should have no problem pushing the ball vertically in the NFL.
Last week, he had eight attempts 10+ yards downfield, and that number would likely have been higher if the game didn’t become a blowout. The Commanders rank 27th in pass defense DVOA against deep attempts, and Mooney is the player to target here, especially if Lattimore plays and is shadowing Drake London.
Falcons vs Commanders Betting Trends
- The Commanders are 5-3 to the over at home this season
- The Falcons are 1-4 ATS as an underdog this season
- Jayden Daniels has thrown for multiple touchdowns in four straight games
