The Chicago Bears have the perfect rebound opportunity against the Patriots this week. After tough losses to the Cardinals and Commanders, the Bears are 6.5-point favorites for this Week 10 contest against the Pats, sitting at -275 on the moneyline, at FanDuel.
Caleb Williams and the Bears have an opportunity to steamroll Drake Maye and the Patriots, besting another bad team. I'll break down my game pick and a D'Andre Swift prop for this matchup below:
Patriots vs Bears Odds Week 10
New England Patriots vs Chicago Bears, Nov. 10, 1:00 pm ET
| Team | Runline | Moneyline | Totals |
|---|---|---|---|
| New England Patriots | +6.5 (-114) | +225 | O 38.5 (-115) |
| Chicago Bears | -6.5 (-106) | -275 | U 38.5 (-105) |
As of November 4th at Caesars Sportsbook
Patriots vs Bears Picks Week 10
Bears -6.5 (-106)
The Bears kinda suck... EXCEPT when they're playing the worst teams in football. The Bears have four wins this season, and three of them have come against the Titans, Panthers, and Jaguars — who have a combined 6-20 record. The Bears also covered the spread in all three of those games, winning by a combined 52 points.
Lucky for Chicago, they play another two-win team this week in the Patriots. Since a shocking Week 1 win over the Bengals, the Pats are 1-7 and have covered the spread in just two of eight contests.
The Bears may not be a wagon, ranking 10th in expected wins and 13th in expected points added per play. But, the Pats rank bottom-three in football in both of those metrics. This should be a great spot for Caleb Williams and the Bears to get back in the win column against a soft opponent.
Patriots vs Bears Prop Pick
D'Andre Swift Anytime TD Scorer
The exact line for this prop isn't yet out, but I'll be taking it if it's above around -160.
D'Andre Swift's 2024 season started off awful. He was averaging like 1.5 yard per carry and hadn't found the end zone in Chicago's first three games. But since, he's been the most consistent contributor to the Bears' offense. Swift has touchdowns in four of his last five games, getting at least 18 touches a game in that run.
Now, Swift and the Bears face a Patriots defense that's really struggled to defend running backs. The Pats have allowed the second-most rushing rushing yards (1121) and rushing touchdowns (10) to opposing RBs this year.
Patriots vs Bears Betting Trends
- The UNDER has hit in 12 of the Bears' last 18 games
- The Bears are 7-0 in their last seven home games
- The Patriots are 3-6 in their last 10 against top-10 defenses
These betting trends are courtesy of Outlier's NFL Insights:
