After facing a tough spot in their schedule, the Buffalo Bills get a reprieve this week. The Bills face the lowly Patriots, with Buffalo slated as a massive 14.5-point favorite for this Sunday contest. The Bills sit at -1000 on the moneyline with the point total resting at O/U 46.5.
Despite a huge line, I think the Bills are primed to cover the spread in Week 16:
Patriots vs Bills Odds Week 16
New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills, Dec. 22, 4:25 pm ET
| Team | Point Spread | Moneyline | Totals |
|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots | +14.5 (-120) | +660 | O 46.5 (-110) |
| Bills | -14.5 (-102) | -1000 | U 46.5 (-110) |
As of December 17th at FanDuel Sportsbook
Patriots vs Bills Picks Week 16
Bills -14.5 (-102)
Last week, I tried to play the massive dog in Giants vs Ravens, taking New York +16.5, and that one backfired in a big way. I won't make the same mistake again.
The Patriots have lost by more than 14 points five times already this year, including a 16-point loss to the frickin' Jaguars. Surely the Bills can join the list of many teams that have thumped New England. The Bills have had their share of blowouts this year, too, winning five games by more than 14.5 points.
The one thing that gives me hesitation is the history between these teams. The Bills are 5-1 in their last six against the Pats, but only one of those wins came by more than 14 points. However, this year's Bills team is on a roll — and this might be the worst Patriots squad we've seen in a while. If there was ever a time for a Buffalo blowout, it's this week.
Patriots vs Bills Player Props
Drake Maye OVER 0.5 Interceptions (-135)
Drake Maye has actually been pretty good in his rookie season, but the interceptions are the big issue. The New England passer has thrown nine picks in nine games, hitting his OVER 0.5 INT mark in seven of nine contests. Heading into this week, he's thrown an interception in six straight games.
Now, Maye faces a Bills defense that has 13 interceptions in 14 games (eighth-most in NFL), including two interceptions returned for touchdowns. With the Pats likely behind in this game, needing to pass the ball to claw back in it, I think Buffalo's secondary will have plenty of opportunity to turn the ball over.
Patriots vs Bills Betting Trends
- The Patriots are 3-8-1 against the spread in their last 12 games as underdogs
- The Patriots are 2-11 straight up in their last 13 as underdogs
- The OVER has hit in 10 of Buffalo's last 12 games as a favorite
All NFL betting trends from Outlier Trends:
