For most teams, the goal for the season is the Stanley Cup. As you'll see with my Chicago Blackhawks 2024-25 season preview, the goal for the Hawks isn't winning hardware, but seeing growth in some of their young talent. Connor Bedard in particular.
Chicago Blackhawks 2024 Offseason Acquisitions
- Drafted Artyom Levshunov 2nd overall
- Tuevo Teravainen signed a $16.2 million 3-year contract
- Tyler Bertuzzi signed a $22 million 4-year contract
- TJ Brodie signed a $7.5 million 2-year contract
- Pat Maroon signed a $1.3 million 1-year contract
- Laurent Brossoit signed a $6.6 million 2-year contract
- Craig Smith signed a $1 million 1-year contract
- Alec Martinez signed a $4 million 1-year contract
Chicago Blackhawks 2024 Offseason Departures
- Colin Blackwell signed by Dallas Stars
- Jarred Tinordi signed by Calgary Flames
- Nikita Zaitsev signed with SKA St Petersburg
- Tyler Johnson became UFA
Chicago Blackhawks 2024-25 Season Preview: Growing But Miss The Dance
There have been a lot of changes in Chicago and none will vault them into the discussion for the Cup with -1600 odds to miss the playoffs. That's a 94% implied chance. In the NHL that's as close of a guarantee as you can expect. Naturally, their odds of winning the Cup are quite long at an eye-popping +15000.
In fact, the Hawks have the fourth-best odds to finish the regular season with the worst record in the NHL at +800. That's how much of an afterthought they are for the Cup this year, despite bringing in a ton of vets.
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| San Jose Sharks | +220 |
| Columbus Blue Jackets | +300 |
| Anaheim Ducks | +600 |
| Chicago Blackhawks | +800 |
| Montreal Canadiens | +1000 |
Odds as of September 26
Chicago will be bad, but they shouldn't be the 52-point team they were last season. Sportsbooks feel they'll be around a 70+ point team by placing their points total at 73.5 with both sides getting -110 odds. With all those vets they added, like Teravainen and Bertuzzi the Hawks will be better, but another 11 to 12 wins better? I doubt it.
All of these vets are depth players anywhere else. Teravainen is a 50-point player at best and Bertuzzi is no longer a 30-goal threat on the wing. Both are better options for Bedard to play with but their additions aren't turning the Hawks into a 100-point team like the Oilers did in McDavid's second season.
I'd take the UNDER on the points total.
When To Bet On Chicago Blackhawks Playoff Odds
Chicago won't make the playoffs as reflected by their previously mentioned -1600 odds to miss the postseason. But, you might get better odds of them missing the playoffs if you wait until the end of January.
From December 29th to January 26, Chicago will play 11 of 13 games at home including the Winter Classic outdoor game at Wrigley Field on December 31st.
Home teams held a 710-602 SU (54%) record last season. Chicago should bank points in that 13-game run and if they've been anything close to a 70+ point team leading up to this 13-game period, their odds will be a lot shorter than -1600. You'll get much better value on CHI missing the playoffs if you check back in January.
The Growth of Connor Bedard
Bedard came out of the gates flying in his rookie year with 61 points in 68 games. Earning him the Calder Trophy. Now remember that Bedard had no support last year. After Bed's 68 points, Philipp Kurashev was the next-highest scorer at 54 points.
Taylor Hall only played 10 games before a season-ending injury, and Tyler Johnson only managed 31 points as did defenseman Seth Jones. Again, Bedard flew solo. This year should be different with a healthy Hall, Bertuzzi, and Teravainen.
| OVER | UNDER |
|---|---|
| 79.5 (-114) | 79.5 (-114) |
Odds as of September 26
Taking the OVER 79.5 points at -114 seems like easy money with all of Bedard's new teammates. With 61 points in 68 games last year, he was on pace for 74 in a full season. Can Bedard score six more points than his rookie season pace in 24-25? Abso-friggen-lutely.
What about his goal total? Bedard led the Hawks in goals with 22 last season. Books figure a big uptick in Bedard's scoring putting his line at 35.5 goals.
| OVER | UNDER |
|---|---|
| 35.5 (-110) | 35.5 (-110) |
Odds as of September 26
Bedard scored 22 goals on 23.74 ixG meaning he was slightly underperforming his metrics. His 16.3% shooting percentage from high-danger areas per NHLEdge is to blame. That rate is below the 50th percentile in the league. I expect that to change this year, as the 19-year-old not only gets more help but adjusts to the speed of the league.
But asking him to score another 13+ goals from last year is too much for me. He'll be better, but not to the degree where Bedard is a lock to hit the OVER on his goal total. I'm betting on the UNDER at -110.
