The NHL Global Series betting trends say you must wager on the favorite. The favs have been dominant of late winning 10 of the last 11 NHL games hosted outside North America.
The NHL's Global Series returns in 2024 with four games in Czechia and Finland. The New Jersey Devils and Buffalo Sabres play a back-to-back in Prague while the Dallas Stars battle the defending Stanley Cup Champions Florida Panthers in Tampere, Finland.
Bet Favorites In NHL Global Series Games
| Market | Record |
|---|---|
| Favorites (Moneyline) | 19-7 (73%) |
| Totals | 12-11-3 (46%) |
A favorite has won ten of the last 11 NHL global series games, pushing their record since 2010 to 19-7 (73%). With the favs winning 73% (5.71 units of profit) of the time, the parity of the NHL doesn't exist for Global Series games. Remember that favorites won 60.8% in the 2023-24 regular season. A blind bet on the favorite in Europe is a good idea.
I'd stay away from betting the totals blindly for these games. It's as close to a 50-50 split as possible with the OVER hitting 46% while the UNDER is 42%.
How Teams Perform When Returning to North America
If you're looking for more trends you should consider what happens to teams when they return from playing in Europe.
NHL players are creatures of habit, changing their schedule with massive time changes and lots of flying miles by playing in Europe could throw them off. Since 2010, when coming back from Europe, teams 12-16SU (43%) record proves that.
Last season, of the four teams that played overseas, three teams lost their first game back.
| Teams | First Game Back | Days of Rest |
|---|---|---|
| Ottawa Senators | 5-3 L to NYI | 6 Days |
| Detroit Red Wings | 4-0 W to NJD | 5 Days |
| Toronto Maple Leafs | 4-3 L to CHI | 5 Days |
| Minnesota Wild | 3-2 L to COL | 5 Days |
To cure travel fatigue and jet lag, the NHL (rightfully) gives the players a 5-6 break between games. Players might be rested but another problem sets in; rust. Guys aren't up to game speed anymore. It's a phenomenon we've seen manifest in the NHL for years. That poor 43% win rate on their first game from Europe matches the NHL's 47% win rate on 5+ days of rest since 2010.
Recent NHL Global Series Game Results
| Date | Winning Team | Line | Losing Team | Line | Total | OVER/UNDER |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov. 16, 2023 | Senators | -127 | Red Wings | +130 | 6.5 | O |
| Nov. 17, 2023 | Maple Leafs | -188 | Red Wings | +155 | 6.5 | U |
| Nov. 18, 2023 | Senators | -107 | Wild | -112 | 6.5 | U |
| Nov. 19, 2023 | Maple Leafs | -169 | Wild | +143 | 6.5 | O |
As the trends point out, the favorite has won three of the four games last year. I won't put up a fight if you want to argue that the Wild were hardly a "favorite" at -112 to the Sens -107. You could say it was a pick 'em game.
The total is also split right down the middle at 2-2.
What Are This Year's NHL Global Series Games?
The NHL is taking four teams back to European markets with games in Prague, Czechia and Tampere, Finland in 2024-25:
| Date | Away Team | Home Team | Game Time (EST) | City |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct. 4, 2024 | New Jersey Devils | Buffalo Sabres | 1:00 PM | Prague, CZ |
| Oct. 5, 2024 | Buffalo Sabres | New Jersey Devils | 1:00 PM | Prague, CZ |
| Nov. 1, 2024 | Florida Panthers | Dallas Stars | 1:00 PM | Tampere, FI |
| Nov. 2, 2024 | Dallas Stars | Flordia Panthers | 1:00 PM | Tampere, FI |
