The Dallas Stars look to break their Toronto Maple Leafs curse tonight at Scotiabank Arena. How bad is this curse, you ask? The Stars haven't beaten the Leafs in seven straight meetings, and yet, the Leafs are the "dogs" tonight with -105 odds to Dallas's -115 on the bet365 moneyline. With the Leafs' incredible record against Dallas, I'll gladly take those -105 odds on tonight's game.
Stars vs Maple Leafs Odds
Matchup Page: Stars vs Maple Leafs, January 14, 7:00 pm ET @ Scotiabank Arena
| Teams | Puckline | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Stars | -1.5 (+210) | -115 | O5.5 (-120) |
| Toronto Maple Leafs | +1.5 (-260) | -105 | U5.5 (+100) |
Odds as of January 14 at Sportsbook
Stars vs Maple Leafs Picks
Maple Leafs ML (-105) at Sportsbook
After a 3-0 shutout by Vancouver in their last game, only the third Leafs shutout since 21-22, Toronto is motivated to get a response tonight. And it typically responds well going 4-0SU after a shutout since March 24, 2021.
Mitch Marner usually stands out in these post-shut-out victories scoring three goals and four points with 12 shots (three shots per game). You can get OVER 2.5 shots for Marner at +150 from bet365.
I know Toronto has lost two straight games now, but even in that recent 3-0 loss, the Leafs played well generating 56% of the shot attempts and 52% of expected goals at 5on5.
And look, it's not as if Dallas is coming into this contest in great shape. Again, not only has Dallas lost seven straight against the Leafs, but it has also gone 1-4SU in its last five road games including a 3-2 loss to Ottawa where Dallas was dominated at 5on5 only managing to get 39% of the expected goals.
Dallas is also without Mason Marchment for the next few weeks as he rehabs from surgery to address fractures in his nose. Marchment is second in team scoring and first in shots against the Leafs since 22-23 with three points and fifteen shots in five games.
The Leafs have played better hockey lately while the Stars are far from glowing against Toronto and have lost their most effective player in this matchup. Leafs win.
Stars vs Maple Leafs Player Prop
Jamie Benn O1.5 SOG (-190) at Sportsbook
Per our friends at Outlier, Jamie Benn has exceeded 1.5 shots on net in seven of his last eight road games averaging 2.1 shots on goal in that span. And it gets better.
Forget about just looking at his road splits, if you step back and look at Benn's shooting record over his last eight games, you'll see he's gone OVER 1.5 shots seven times with an average of 3.3 shots per game. Then you factor in how he's finding shooting lanes against the Leafs, over Benn's last four games against Toronto, he's exceeded 1.5 shots three times, averaging 2.3 shots on goal. I don't know about you, but all trends point to Benn hitting his shot prop tonight.
Stars vs Maple Leafs Betting Trends
- The total has gone UNDER in four of Dallas's last five games and six times in their last seven games when there wasn't a favorite. UNDER 5.5 goals is at +100 at bet365.
- From Outlier, Mitch Marner has exceeded 0.5 points in 12 of his last 15 games (80%), OVER 0.5 points for Marner is at -260 from bet365.
- Also from Outlier, Jason Robertson has gone OVER 0.5 points in five of his last six road games averaging 1.3 points. OVER 0.5 points for Robertson is -155 at bet365.
