The Red Wings made a big change over the holiday firing head coach Derek Lalonde and replacing him immediately with Todd McLellan. I don't believe the Wings' new coach bounce will be enough to end their current three-game slide, so I'm taking the Maple Leafs on the BET99 moneyline at -145.
See tonight's odds, my expert picks, a player prop pick, and Maple Leafs vs Red Wings betting trends below. Don't miss BET99's +245 same-game parlay featuring Nylander to pepper the Wings' net with shots and for the Leafs to have a big offensive outing.
Maple Leafs vs Red Wings Odds
Matchup Page: Maple Leafs vs Red Wings, December 27, 7:00 pm ET
| Teams | Puckline | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Maple Leafs | -1.5 (+165) | -145 | O6 (-110) |
| Detroit Red Wings | +1.5 (-200) | +125 | U6 (-110) |
Odds as of December 27 at BET99
Maple Leafs vs Red Wings Picks
Maple Leafs ML (-145) at BET99
With a fresh coaching change in Detroit, the Red Wings hope Todd McLellan can fix a team that's gone 3-9SU in its last 12 games. His job starts with fixing a defense that has allowed an average of 3.75 goals in 12 games. That won't be an easy job considering the Red Wings allow the 12th-most opportunities in the league at 3.06 xGA per 60. If McLellan is going to fix the Red Wings it will take longer than a day.
Going into the holidays the Leafs suffered a quick one-two to the face getting popped 6-3 by the Islanders and then 5-2 by the Jets a few days later. Leafs GM admitted his team had slipped in their performances but has seen some "good hockey" from his charges, the positives Berube is probably talking about is likely William Nylander who led the team in shots and scoring with 10 shots and four points in those last games, OVER 3.5 shots and 1.5 points for Nylander is -125 and +155 respectively at BET99.
Of the two sides, Detroit's issues are far deeper than the Leafs who lost focus before the holiday break. Toronto can bounce back in a setting where they've done well with a 7-3SU in their last 10 visits to Little Caesars Arena.
Maple Leafs vs Red Wings Same Game Parlay
- William Nylander 4+ Shots on Goal
- Leafs Score 4+ Goals
- Odds: +245
W. Nylander 4+ SOG: As I said earlier in the piece, Nylander has been on fire for Toronto with 10 points in his last two games, an average of five per game. He's also got four or more shots in four of his last five games including a four-shot night in Detroit on December 14.
Leafs 4+ Goals: The Red Wings have allowed four or more goals in six of their last seven games. I get they have a new coach who will focus on defense, but a single practice is unlikely to break their bad defensive habits. And while Toronto has only scored five goals in its last two games, they had 16 goals in their three previous outings, against a bad defensive side like Detroit, that Leafs offense is likely to come alive tonight.
Maple Leafs vs Red Wings Player Prop
Dylan Larkin O0.5 Points (-130) at BET99
If a change in fortunes is going to happen in Detroit it will have to start with leadership, look for Red Wings captain Dylan Larkin to have a solid performance tonight under his new coach. Larkin has great numbers against the Leafs lately scoring six goals and adding seven assists in his last 10 against the Buds.
The Wings captain has gone OVER 0.5 points in eight of those last 10 against the Leafs, so I'll gladly take him to score a point against a Leafs team that has been porous defensively allowing 11 goals in their last two games.
Maple Leafs vs Red Wins Betting Trends
- The total has gone OVER in each of the Leafs' last five games and in six of their last eight road games. OVER 6 goals is -110 at BET99.
- Per Outlier, Vladimir Tarasenko has gone OVER 1.5 shots in nine of his last 11 home games (82%), OVER 1.5 shots for Tarasenko is -155 at BET99.
- Also from Outlier, John Tavares has gone UNDER 0.5 power-play points in his last 17 road games, but Detroit owns the second-worst power play in the league, OVER 0.5 power-play points for Tavares is +365 at BET99.
