Maple Leafs vs Stars Odds & Picks: Total Goes Below Six Goals

It's all about Big D tonight, not because the Toronto Maple Leafs face the Dallas Stars in Dallas at the American Airlines Center, but because both teams prioritize defense with the Stars ranked first for goals against per game (2.50) and the Leafs ranked sixth (2.61). So I'm taking UNDER 5.5 goals at -105 odds from BET99 tonight.

Check out our same game parlay for this tilt that combines UNDER 5.5 goals, UNDER 2.5 goals for the Leafs, and Matthews getting at least one point for +525 odds at BET99.

Maple Leafs vs Stars Odds

Matchup Page: Maple Leafs vs Stars, December 18, 7:30 pm ET

Odds as of December 18 at BET99

Maple Leafs vs Stars Picks

UNDER 5.5 Goals (-105) at BET99

Both teams know the importance of defense, not only have we seen them prioritize play away from the puck when they aren't playing each other but we've definitely seen it when they do. The UNDER has hit in five of the last seven games between the Leafs and Stars with an average of 5.6 goals scored in those seven games.

At home, the Stars' defensive abilities shine dropping their 2.5 overall goals against per game average to a flat 2.00, that's why they've gone 10-4-1 (67%) against the UNDER at home. Starting goalie Jake Oettinger is a massive reason for that. This season on home ice, the Otter holds a fantastic 0.928 save percentage and 1.92 goals against average stopping at least 25 shots per game.

Despite the Leafs seeing the total reach an average of six goals in their last five road games, I still believe we see the UNDER tonight. Sixty percent of the goals scored in those last five road games were by the Leafs' opponents, the Stars aren't exactly scoring bucket loads of goals lately with six goals in their last three games and holding the third-worst 5on5 shooting percentage (6.82) in the league's last 10 games. 

Maple Leafs vs Stars Same Game Parlay

UNDER 5.5 Goals: Both teams play well defensively, the Stars are great and keeping goals low at home with a 10-4-1 record against the UNDER at home, and Dallas has had a tough time scoring lately. We'll see fewer than six goals. 

Leafs UNDER 2.5 Goals: Outside of a five-goal outing against the pathetic Buffalo Sabres, Toronto had only averaged two goals per game in the five previous games. With Dallas's strong defensive record at home expect few goals from the Buds.

Matthews O0.5 Points: Matthews will play a part in the few goals that Toronto will generate. The captain has points in four of his last five games and has a point in 10 of his 11 career games against the Stars. The only time Dallas kept him off the score sheet was on January 31st, 2017, Matthews's first game against the Stars.

Maple Leafs vs Stars Player Prop

Jake McCabe O1.5 Blocks (-170) at BET99

Per Outlier, Leafs defenseman Jake McCabe has gone OVER 1.5 blocks in nine of his last 10 road games averaging 2.9 blocks per game.

With 52 blocks on the year, McCabe is a machine at blocking shots averaging two blocks a game and with the Stars holding the ninth-most shot attempts for every team's last 10 home games at 64.03 per game McCabe will have plenty of opportunities to get his 6'1" and 204lbs frame in front of at least two shots.

Maple Leafs vs Stars Betting Trends