The Edmonton Oilers face the Montreal Canadiens at the Bell Center tonight in what the odds suggest will be a one-sided affair, Edmonton is given -270 odds, an incredible 73% implied chance of winning at BET99.
Despite those -270 odds, I'm not so sure we'll see a dominant Edmonton performance with the Habs covering a +1.5 puckline in four of their last five games against the Oilers, so my play is to take Montreal on the +1.5 puckline at -110 from BET99.
Oilers vs Canadiens Odds
Edmonton Oilers vs Montreal Canadiens, November 18, 7:30 pm ET
| Teams | Puckline | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Edmonton Oilers | -1.5 (-110) | -270 | O6.5 (-110) |
| Montreal Canadiens | +1.5 (-110) | +215 | U6.5 (-110) |
Odds as of November 18 at BET99
Oilers vs Canadiens Picks
Montreal Canadiens +1.5 (-110) at BET99
The Oilers have failed to cover the puckline in four of their last five games, so why would I trust them to do so today? When the Oilers are favored at -250 or more they hold a dreadful 1-4 record against the -1.5 puckline, just because the Oilers are overwhelming -270 favorites doesn't mean they'll run up the score on the Habs.
Edmonton is scoring well with an average of 3.8 goals per game in its last five thanks to Connor McDavid's average of 2.2 points, OVER 1.5 points for McDavid is -140 at BET99, but while Edmonton is scoring enough to cover the -1.5 puckline goaltending is failing by allowing 16 goals and a sad 0.868% save percentage in five games.
Losing Darnell Nurse to Ryan Reaves's dangerous headshot is more bad news for the Oilers and specifically to the prospects of blowing the doors off the Habs, Edmonton is 1-4 against the -1.5 puckline in its last five games without Nurse.
Meanwhile, Montreal's shooters have been on point lately scoring 12 goals in three games (four goals per game) and converting on 22% of opportunities. Captain Nick Suzuki has three goals in his last three games and has +225 anytime goal odds tonight at BET99.
With Edmonton's poor goalkeeping and the Habs' resurgent shooting taking Montreal on the puckline is a bet that I'll easily make.
Oilers vs Canadiens Player Prop
Cole Caufield UNDER 2.5 Shots (+100) at BET99
As Outlier points out, Cole Caufield has failed to get more than two shots on the net in his last five games. In fact, Caufield has only gone OVER 2.5 shots once in his last eight games.
Further to Caufield's shot prop failures the Oilers have done a good job at keeping shot volumes low with shots against not exceeding 23 in their last four games. There's also this strange phenomenon that happens to Oilers opponents' shot totals when Darnell Nurse isn't in the lineup, Oilers opponents average 29.5 shots when Nurse is playing, but without him out on the ice they only average 19.9 shots.
Not to mention Caufield picks up a lot of shots on the PP with 11.49 per 60 compared to 6.9 per 60 from 5on5 play, and with the Oilers being one of the most disciplined teams with the sixth-lowest times shorthanded per game (2.61) I'm taking UNDER 2.5 shots for Caufield tonight.
Oilers vs Canadiens Betting Trends
- The total has gone OVER in seven of Montreal's last nine games against Edmonton (78%) and four of their last five games at home against Edmonton (80%). OVER 6.5 goals is -110 at BET99.
- Mike Matheson has gone OVER 0.5 points in four of his last five home games. OVER 0.5 points for Matheson is -110 at BET99.
- Leon Draisaitl has goals in each of his four games and goals in six of his last seven games against Montreal. An anytime goal for Draisaitl is +110 at BET99.
