I'm all in on the -120 OVER at BET99 as two terrible teams meet tonight at KeyBank Center with the losers of six straight Buffalo Sabres facing off against the Detroit Red Wings who've lost five straight.
Both teams have struggled to find goals in their last outings but still rank top half of the league for scoring and with how poorly both are defensively, ranking eighth and 14th, I expect more than six goals tonight. Furthermore, the total has gone OVER six goals in each of the last five Red Wings-Sabres meetings with an average of 9.2 goals in those five games.
Red Wings vs Sabres Odds
Matchup Page: Red Wings vs Sabres, December 9, 7:00 pm ET
| Teams | Puckline | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Red Wings | +1.5 (-200) | +125 | O6 (-120) |
| Buffalo Sabres | -1.5 (+165) | -145 | U6 (+100) |
Odds as of December 9 at BET99
Red Wings vs Sabres Picks
OVER 6 Goals (-120) at BET99
Despite the UNDER hitting in the Red Wings' last three games I'm confident we won't see a repeat tonight in Buffalo, again the total has gone OVER in each of the last five meetings between the Wings and Sabres in Buffalo and seven times in 10 games overall. With Alex Lyon and Cam Talbot injured the Wings have to rely on Ville Husso and his 0.884 save percentage or on prospect Sebastian Cossa to slow down the Sabres. And while Buffalo hasn't been good themselves losing six straight, they've scored an average of 3.5 goals per game in that six-game slide.
This is an uncomfortable situation for the Red Wings' makeshift goalie situation and will lead to goals for the Sabres, specifically for Tage Thomspon who's scored three goals in his last three games, an anytime goal for Tage is +115 at BET99.
The Wings aren't the only team dealing with an injury issue, the Sabres should be without Rasmus Dahlin tonight (back spasms), Dahlin isn't just the team captain but the main puck mover from the back end. Without him, the Sabres are missing their main outlet to push the puck forward and with their poor defense (8th for goals against per game) it's no surprise that with the puck in their end more often, they concede a lot in his absence with an average of four goals against per game and the total going OVER 13 times in 20 games (65%).
Red Wings vs Sabres Player Prop
Jason Zucker O2.5 SOG (+120) at BET99
Per Outlier, the trend does not support my pick to take the OVER on Zucker's shot prop, with the vet going UNDER 2.5 shots on goal in 14 of his last 16 home games. But let me explain why I'm taking the OVER on Zuk's shot prop.
If you look closely at that trend, you'll see that Zucker has picked up more than two shots in back-to-back home games, he had five against Winnipeg on the 5th and then three against Utah on the 7th. On top of that, Zucker has good shot numbers against the Wings with 54 shots in 20 career games, an average of 2.7 per game and these particular Red Wings have been poruous allowing the fifth-most shots on net in the league at 31.3.
Zucker is getting enough shots at home lately, has done well against the Wings, and these Wings let lots of rubber hit their goalie, so for all of those reasons, I'm going against the trend to take OVER 2.5 shots for Zucker at +120 from BET99.
Red Wings vs Sabres Betting Trends
- Detroit is 4-2SU in its last six games while the Sabres are 0-5SU in their last five home games, if you fancy Detriot to keep that trend and break their losing streak BET99 has Detroit at +125 on the ML.
- The total has gone OVER in nine of Buffalo's last 12 games against teams in the Eastern Conference. That's more ammunition for my OVER 6 goals pick at -120 from BET99.
- From Oulier, Jiri Kulich has averaged 2.5 shots on net in his last six home games, BET99 has OVER 2.5 shots for Kulich at +140.
