2024-25 NHL Season Point Totals: Smash The UNDER On The Senators

The 2024-25 NHL regular season point totals odds believe the Ottawa Senators will have a big bounce-back year. According to the odds, the Sens are likelier to exceed 90.5 points this season. Considering they only had 78 points last season, that's a big leap of faith from odds markers. Meanwhile, in the Western Conference, the right play is to back UNDER 81.5 points for the declining Calgary Flames.

2024-25 NHL Regular-Season Point Totals: Eastern Conference

Odds as of August 8

2024-25 Ottawa Senators Regular Season Points Total

Oddsmakers have a lot of faith in Linus Ullmark to put the Sens line at 90.5 points. On one hand, I get the hype. Ullmark won the Vezina Trophy just two years ago. The 2023-24 Senators' main weakness was goaltending, with the league's worst save percentage at 0.884. Ullmark had a 0.924SV% in three seasons with the Bruins. That could be exactly what Ottawa needs.

TRADE ALERT: The #Sens have acquired G Linus Ullmark from @NHLBruins in exchange for (Boston’s original) ’24 first-round draft pick (no. 25 overall), C Mark Kastelic and G Joonas Korpisalo. As part of the transaction, the #Sens will retain 25% of Korpisalo’s remaining salary.… pic.twitter.com/0xRMxi8wZS

— Ottawa Senators (@Senators) June 24, 2024

But, I don't share sportsbooks faith in Ullmark, specifically in the Ottawa system. From 2018-2021, Ullmark suited up for 91 games with the Buffalo Sabres. There, he averaged a 0.911SV% and 2.85GA. When stuck in front of a bad defensive Buffalo team, Ullmark faded. 

The Sens didn't insulate their goalie core well in 2023-24 with the 15th worst expected goals against at 5on5. I'm concerned we'll see the same Ullmark from Buffalo in Ottawa. I'd bet the UNDER on the Sens 90.5 points total.

2024-25 New York Islanders Regular Season Points Total

The Islanders had 94 points last year. I can't see them having fewer than 88.5 points in 2024-25.

Remember, the Isles had the most OT losses after leading through two periods (8). That's eight points they should have had.

Anders Lee was arguably the most wasteful player in the league. The Islanders captain had the third most individual expected goals (ixG) at 5on5 with 25.08 but only scored 13. Only Zach Hyman and Auston Matthews had a better ixG at 5on5.

Ilya Sorokin was a shadow of what we saw from his first two years in the league. He averaged a pathetic 0.908SV% this year but was a 0.924SV% goalie in his previous three seasons.

With Lee putting away the goals he creates, Sorokin stopping pucks like we know he can, and the Islanders win the games they're winning, they will have more than 88.5 points.

2024-25 NHL Regular-Season Point Totals: Western Conference

Odds as of August 8

2024-25 Calgary Flames Regular Season Points Total

At -125 the books favor the UNDER for the Calgary Flames points total this year. And I can't disagree. 

Remember, the Flames have offloaded a lot of talent from last year. Since January 2024, they've traded, Andrew Mangiapane, Jakob Markstrom, Noah Hanifin, Chris Tanev and Elias Lindholm. They also lost Olive Kylington through free agency.

There will be a dropoff for the Flames this season as they transition to a younger squad and unproven talents. Calgary put up 81 points last season with all of that NHL talent, Calgary will go UNDER 81.5 points.

2024-25 Winnipeg Jets Regular Season Points Total

Winnipeg had 110 points last season, it seems absurd that the Jets line this year is 96.5 points. Sure, the books favor the OVER at -125, but the line should be higher.

Losing Sean Monahan and Tyler Toffoli might seem like a big loss but Cole Perfetti is poised to step up down the middle.

We can't forget that Winnipeg is built on defense, and goaltending, and they've still got the best goalie in the game with two-time Vezina winner Connor Hellebuyck. A 13+ point letdown from last year doesn't seem likely.