The Pennington vs Pena odds at UFC 307 aren't what I expected.
Raquel Pennington will be a -175 favorite on October 5 when she defends her women's bantamweight title against Julianna Pena.
Pena, best known for securing one of the biggest betting upsets in UFC history (+700 vs Amanda Nunes), had a child and took some time off before returning directly to a title shot, which has likely impacted her odds.
Still, the Pennington vs Pena odds surprise me, so let's dive into our Pennington vs Pena preview and best bets for this fight.
Pennington vs Pena Odds
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Raquel Pennington | -175 |
| Julianna Pena | +150 |
Odds as of September 19
Per our odds calculator, a $100 bet on Pennington's odds (63.64% implied chance) pays out $157.14. The same $100 on Pena at +150 (40% implied chance) pays out $250.
How To Bet Pennington
Pennington came close to securing a submission over Mayra Bueno Silva at UFC 297, and I think she may come close again vs Pena at UFC 307. "The Venezuelan Vixen" has been submitted twice before in her career, and after three of four rounds of fighting Pennington's grinding style, she may fold.
"Rocky" isn't flashy. She basically has no major talents on the feet and gets all her work done against the cage or on the mat. This may not make for a flashy fight, but if this bout tumbles to the mat, Raquel might finish it.
I'll be on Pena in this fight, so a value bet on Pennington by submission will be my prop hedge on October 5.
How To Bet Pena
Julianna will often defer to her jiu-jitsu game, but she'd be wise to try to knock Pennington's head off at UFC 307. Rocky doesn't often pounce on striking opportunities, leaving it up to her opponent to make the first move.
Pena went crazy in her upset win over Nunes at UFC 269 in 2021, slugging the champ with short hooks and submitting her in Round 2. While that win said more about Nunes' physical fitness at the time, it showed how good Pena can be at her best.
I'm less bullish on Pena's chances of submitting Pennington, so I'm happy to bet Pena as an underdog and walk away.
UFC 307: Pennington vs Pena Picks
I'll gladly take Pena to win at +150 value. I don't believe the 35-year-old should be favored, but Pennington has not earned her -175 chalk status.
Beyond my moneyline pick, I may play an UNDER rounds bet for plus money, though I'll decide when the props open.
