In a shocking turn of events just a day from UFC 311, Arman Tsarukyan is out of the main event with an injury. Islam Makhachev will now defend his lightweight title vs Renato Moicano.
The Makhachev vs Moicano odds pose the champ as a massive -900 favorite, with the 10th-ranked Moicano coming back around +600.
Moicano is on a four-fight win streak and was originally scheduled to fight Beneil Dariush.
Islam Makhachev vs Renato Moicano Odds
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Islam Makhachev | -900 |
| Renato Moicano | +600 |
Hypothetical odds*
How To Bet Islam
Makhachev has earned his pound-for-pound champ status after two nearly flawless title defenses. Islam headkicked Alex Volkanovski to oblivion in 2023 and defended his belt again with a submission victory over Dustin Poirier at UFC 302. Makhachev has more five-round experience than his opponent Moicano and obviously has a much stronger strength of schedule.
This fight vs Moicano is interesting because Moicano could theoretically neutralize a lot of Islam's strengths on the ground. He's a wicked BJJ artist, but he's known more for top pressure. In the end, I still see Makhachev controlling ground exchanges.
Suddenly, Islam has a massive striking advantage, and I'm very confident he will knock Moicano out, either via ground-and-pound or by stand-up strikes. Moicano got knocked down vs Jalin Turner and Drew Dober before rallying for a win, but I doubt Islam gives him a chance for any second wind.
My best bets are Islam by knockout, plus Islam in Round 2 and Islam in Round 3.
How To Bet Moicano
Frankly, save your money. Moicano is a tough S.O.B., and may perform better than we expect in the cage, but he's not near Islam's caliber. Moicano's best bet will be to get ugly on the ground and find a way to top position. That's a brutally challenging feat versus Islam, but I suppose it is possible.
If you're keen on short-notice Moicano, his odds are mighty long enough to bet him SU as an underdog.
Makhachev vs Moicano Betting Pick
Based on the odds, betting Islam ML won't be worth it. Instead, I predict Makhachev will win by knockout. Moicano has one submission loss to Brian Ortega back in 2017 and has never been submitted since.
Watch for Makhachev to take control on the feet and reject any takedown attempts from Moicano. I'll also be playing Islam to win in Round 2 and 3.
