In what could be the most anticipated UFC fight in 2022, former roommates who are now sworn enemies will be locked in the Octagon for 25 minutes or less at UFC 272. Of course, I’m talking about Colby Covington vs Jorge Masvidal.
UFC 272 takes place on March 5 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada, with the Sportsbook bout of the night taking place at 6 p.m. ET. When it comes to the heated main event, Covington vs Masvidal, it is Colby who is the betting favorite.
You can check out UFC odds along with other betting markets at Sportsbook:
UFC 272: Covington vs Masvidal Betting Odds
For the first time in over four years, Jorge Masvidal walks into a fight coming off consecutive losses. In this case, both losses came against the same man, Kamaru Usman, for the welterweight championship.
Similarly, Colby Covington came up empty-handed in his second attempt at winning the welterweight strap in November, falling to the same man, Usman, by unanimous decision.
UFC 272 Odds
Online sportsbook Sportsbook has listed the UFC 272 odds and in the main event, Colby Covington is the -325 chalk and Masvidal the +245 underdog. These UFC 272 odds mean that you would need to lay $325 to profit $100 with a Covington victory, while a $100 winning wager on Masvidal would net you $245.
To further understand the odds, we can use our sports betting calculator. There, we can see the Covington vs Masvidal odds translated into implied win probabilities. Covington’s odds represent an implied win probability of 76.47 percent while Masvidal’s translate to 28.99 percent.
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Looking to take a shot on the biggest underdog in the UFC 272 odds? You would be looking at Brian Kelleher (+525) in his prelim bout against Umar Nurmagomedov (-850).
Meanwhile, if you’re going to bet on the fight with the tightest odds there are three options which can be found below.
UFC 272 Betting Odds & Fight Card
- Main Card
- Welterweight – Colby Covington (-325) vs Jorge Masvidal (+245)
- Lightweight – Rafael dos Anjos (-170) vs Renato Moicano (+140)
- Featherweight – Edson Barboza (+125) vs Bryce Mitchell (-155)
- Welterweight – Kevin Holland (-350) vs Alex Oliveira (+250)
- Heavyweight – Serghei Spivac (-185) vs Greg Hardy (+155)
- Prelims
- Lightweight – Jalin Turner (-155) vs Jamie Mullarkey (+125)
- Women’s Strawweight – Marina Rodriguez (-260) vs Yan Xiaonan (+200)
- Light Heavyweight – Nicolae Negurmereanu (+120) vs Kennedy Nzechukwu (-150)
- Women’s Flyweight – Maryna Moroz (+155) vs Mariya Agapova (-185)
- Featherweight – Brian Kelleher (+525) vs Umar Nurmagomedov (-850)
- Flyweight – Tim Elliott (+175) vs Tagir Ulanbekov (-220)
- Lightweight – Devonte Smith (-150) vs Ludovit Klein (+120)
- Light Heavyweight – Dustin Jacoby (-190) vs Michal Oleksiejczuk (+155)
Head on over to our best UFC betting sites page to see where you can bet on UFC 272. Afterward, see our How to Bet UFC guide to become an expert in UFC betting. You can see more UFC betting news here at Odds Shark.
- Date/Time: March 5, 6 p.m. ET
- Location: Las Vegas, Nevada
- Arena: T-Mobile Arena
- Where to Watch: ESPN+, PPV
Colby Covington vs Jorge Masvidal Odds & Prediction
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Colby Covington | -325 |
| Jorge Masvidal | +245 |
This is just the second time in his career that Jorge “Gamebred” Masvidal (+245) enters a fight having lost his previous two, but he’s never lost three in a row. Meanwhile, Colby “Chaos” Covington (-325) is also coming off a defeat but has never lost back-to-back fights. One of those statements will no longer be true after Saturday night.
- Covington suffered just the third loss of his pro career in November and this is the shortest layoff he’s had (four months) in two years. He holds a 16-3 record with half of his wins being stoppages (four knockouts, four submissions) while his losses feature one knockout, one submission and one decision.
- Chaos is first and foremost a grappler, mixing in 4.10 takedowns per 15 minutes and twice securing double-digit takedowns in a UFC fight. Only three times in 14 career UFC bouts has he not secured a takedown, losing two of those matches.
- The orthodox fighter has certainly made a lot of improvements in his striking, notably with his kicks, which have sneaky power and accuracy. It was interesting that Covington came out in a southpaw stance in his rematch with Usman.
- Outside of the high-level grappling that Chaos possesses, his conditioning and pace may be his best weapons as his opponents drown under his pressure while he mauls them.
- Covington’s last three fights were Kamaru Usman (loss – knockout), Tyron Woodley (win – knockout) and Kamaru Usman (loss – unanimous decision).
- As mentioned, Masvidal has lost his last two fights but both were title fights against Kamaru Usman. What is more surprising is that in his last outing in April, he got knocked out for the first time in almost 13 years. He is now 35-15 with 18 finishes (16 knockouts, two submissions) while four of his losses have been stoppages (two knockouts, two submissions).
- While Covington has a lot of emphasis on his grappling, Masvidal has secured just two total takedowns over his last nine bouts, while being taken down seven times in the two fights with Usman.
- On the feet, though, Gamebred is a crafty striker with a fairly good volume of 4.22 significant strikes per minute while absorbing just 3.01. He uses a lot of feints to try to find a crack in his opponents’ armor before blitzing forward with his tremendous speed.
- His kicks are really fast and are used frequently. He also has a great step-through straight right that catches his opponents off balance. At times, Masvidal will back up with his chin in the air when he’s facing a combination, which led to his knockout loss last April.
- Masvidal’s last three fights were Nate Diaz (win – knockout), Kamaru Usman (loss – unanimous decision) and Kamaru Usman (loss – knockout).
Here’s a clip of the former roommates training in their living room.
For more on this fight, see my Covington vs Masvidal odds analysis article.
Prediction: Colby Covington (-345) via decision
Rafael dos Anjos vs Renato Moicano Odds & Prediction
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Rafael dos Anjos | -170 |
| Renato Moicano | +140 |
It has been nearly five years since Rafael dos Anjos (-170) has been on a winning streak and with a win in his last fight, he’s looking for exactly that. Meanwhile, taking this fight on five days’ notice after Rafael Fiziev pulled out is Renato Moicano (+140), who is coming off a submission win less than a month ago at UFC 271.
- Just shy of seven years since dos Anjos won the lightweight belt, it has been an uphill battle for him since that night, going 6-6 in the 12 ensuing fights. The veteran carries a 30-13 record with half of his wins being stoppages (five knockouts, 10 submissions). Three of his losses have come via knockout but none since 2016.
- While RDA’s record has looked shaky recently, take a look at the names he has lost to in the welterweight division: first the former interim champion and two-time challenger, Colby Covington; the current champion, Kamaru Usman; upcoming challenger Leon Edwards; and then Michael Chiesa.
- The Brazilian is a well-rounded, intelligent fighter. On the feet, the southpaw averages 3.49 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.22. In grappling, he mixes in 1.93 takedowns per 15 minutes.
- He has good kicks, while in closer range he has no problem letting his hands fly. At times, he will walk into the pocket without throwing a strike or hang out there after throwing one, which leads to him absorbing damage.
- Dos Anjos’ last three fights were Leon Edwards (loss – unanimous decision), Michael Chiesa (loss – unanimous decision) and Paul Felder (win – split decision).
- Moicano heads into this fight on his first winning streak since moving up to lightweight in 2020. He has a 16-4-1 record with nine submission wins while all of his losses have been stoppages (three knockouts, one submission).
- With all of his stoppage wins being submissions, it should come as no surprise that Moicano enjoys grappling, mixing in 2.14 takedowns per 15 minutes. He has the ability to fight on the feet too with a high output of 5.12 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.58.
- Renato is an aggressive fighter, always backing his foes up with his kicks and straight punches before forcing a grappling exchange. He likes to hang out in the pocket to counter but at times gets hit hard in there.
- Moicano’s last three fights were Rafael Fiziev (loss – knockout), Jai Herbert (win – submission) and Alexander Hernandez (win – submission).
Prediction: Rafael dos Anjos (-170) via decision
Edson Barboza vs Bryce Mitchell Odds & Prediction
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Edson Barboza | +125 |
| Bryce Mitchell | -155 |
For just the second time since dropping down to featherweight, Edson “Junior” Barboza (+125) heads into a fight on the heels of a loss. He will have his hands full with Bryce “Thug Nasty” Mitchell (-155), who is looking to remain undefeated and collect his sixth win in the Octagon.
- Barboza had dropped four of five fights at lightweight before dropping to featherweight, where he is 2-2 over four fights. Overall, his record stands at 22-10 with 14 stoppages (13 knockouts, one submission) while six of his losses have been finishes (four knockouts, two submissions).
- A veteran of the cage who made his debut at UFC 123 back in 2010, this is Junior’s 27th UFC bout. The orthodox fighter is a striker, averaging 4.11 significant strikes per minute and absorbing 4.19. His biggest weapon is his kicks, which are lightning-fast with exceptional power, and he mixes up his target well, going to the legs, body and head.
- While Barboza stuffs 78 percent of takedown attempts, it is an area in which he struggles, along with conditioning in those scrambles. Additionally, his exceptional power also comes to the detriment of his conditioning as he puts everything into his strikes.
- Barboza’s last three fights were Makwan Amirkhani (win – unanimous decision), Shane Burgos (win – knockout) and Giga Chikadze (loss – knockout).
- The only blemish you will find on Mitchell’s pro career came in The Ultimate Fighter that is considered an exhibition. Aside from that, he takes a 14-0 record into this fight, with nine of those wins coming by submission.
- Evident in his submission record, Thug Nasty is a strong grappler, averaging 3.26 takedowns per 15 minutes and securing a career-high seven in his decision win over Andre Fili in 2020, his last fight.
- The southpaw has a great sense of range and does a good job staying just out of reach of danger from his opponents. His strikes are often creative while his fundamentals such as the jab are sound, but there’s no question the path to victory is in grappling where he mauls his opponents.
- Mitchell’s last three fights were Matt Sayles (win – submission), Charles Rosa (win – unanimous decision) and Andre Fili (win – unanimous decision).
Prediction: Bryce Mitchell (-155) via decision
Kevin Holland vs Alex Oliveira Odds & Prediction
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Kevin Holland | -350 |
| Alex Oliveira | +250 |
Having gone winless in 2021 over three fights, Kevin “Trailblazer” Holland (-350) has made the decision to drop down from middleweight to welterweight. Looking to greet the newcomer with a closed fist is Alex “Cowboy” Oliveira (+250), who has dropped his last three in the Octagon.
- Holland had been on a nice tear in the early stages of his UFC career, going 8-2 before his current skid. His record stands at 21-7 with one no contest and he has 17 stoppage wins, including 12 knockouts. Two of his defeats have been finishes, both by submission.
- Trailblazer will be a large welterweight, standing six-foot-three with an exceptional 81-inch reach. He uses that length well, constantly throwing straight accurate punches that have some good power behind them.
- One issue that has arisen lately is his takedown defense. He has stuffed only 50 percent of attempts against and was taken to the floor 18 times over the three-fight winless streak.
- Holland’s last three fights were Derek Brunson (loss – unanimous decision), Marvin Vettori (loss – unanimous decision) and Kyle Daukaus (no contest).
- This is the second three-fight losing skid that Oliveira has faced in his career, both coming over his last eight bouts. He carries a 22-11-1 record with two no contests and 12 of his wins have been knockouts while six defeats have been by submission.
- Cowboy is a well-rounded mixed martial artist with an ability to be competitive wherever the fight plays out. He averages 2.27 takedowns per 15 minutes but has secured just two over his last five fights.
- He likes being an aggressive fighter, backing his opponents up and launching a lot of kicks. With his reliance on kicks, though, he drops his hands, which has led to him eating heavy shots and getting dropped.
- Oliveira’s last three fights were Shavkat Rakhmonov (loss – submission), Randy Brown (loss – submission) and Niko Price (loss – unanimous decision).
Prediction: Kevin Holland (-350) via knockout
Serghei Spivac vs Greg Hardy Odds & Prediction
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Serghei Spivac | -185 |
| Greg Hardy | +155 |
The main card will open with a pair of heavyweights looking to get back in the win column. For the first time in his short career, Greg “Prince of War” Hardy (+155) walks into the cage coming off back-to-back losses. Serghei “Polar Bear” Spivac (-185) is looking to avoid the same outcome as his three-fight winning streak was snapped in his last appearance.
- Spivac struggled in the beginning of his UFC career before his three-fight winning streak, dropping two of his first three in the Octagon. He is 13-3 with 11 stoppage victories (five knockouts, six submissions) while two of his losses have come by knockout.
- The Polar Bear secured multiple takedowns (totaling 12 to be exact) in three of his four UFC wins, leading to an average of 2.72 takedowns per 15 minutes. He has nice trips in the clinch to go along with a good double leg when he times it correctly.
- The orthodox fighter has a nice jab and when he lands once, he tends to follow up with a combination. He does have a tendency to be bullied back toward the cage and simply cover up, which could put him in trouble against a power puncher like Hardy.
- Spivac’s last three fights were Jared Vanderaa (win – knockout), Aleksei Oleinik (win – unanimous decision) and Tom Aspinall (loss – knockout).
- Hardy’s rise in the UFC was rapid, perhaps in part due to the division’s lack of depth but also because of his growth in skills in combination with his great athleticism. He now has a 7-4 record with one no contest. Six of his wins have come by knockout while two of his defeats have come in the same fashion.
- The former NFL Pro Bowl defensive end is a big heavyweight, maxing out the scale at 265 pounds and standing six-foot-five with an 81-inch reach. The size doesn’t impact his performance, though, as he has fairly good conditioning, his footwork and skills are improving, and he has big power.
- There are two major flaws in his game right now: the lack of ability to get up off the floor and his fight IQ. He can likely go with anyone on the feet with his power and speed but at times he will rush in and get caught. In terms of the other issue, it will just take a lot of time grappling to fix.
- Hardy’s last three fights were Maurice Greene (win – knockout), Marcin Tybura (loss – knockout) and Tai Tuivasa (loss – knockout).
Prediction: Greg Hardy (+160) via knockout
UFC 272: Covington vs Masvidal Best Bets
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Welterweight – Colby Covington | -325 |
| Lightweight – Rafael dos Anjos | -170 |
| Featherweight – Bryce Mitchell | -155 |
| Welterweight – Kevin Holland | -350 |
| Heavyweight – Greg Hardy | +155 |
