UFC 311 Parlay Picks: Bet The UNDER Thunder (+721)

UFC 311 is nearly here, and with long odds all over the card, it's a great time to cook up my UFC 311 parlays.

Islam Makhachev is now a -390 favorite in the main event, so you can bet he'll be in the mix. Plus, guaranteed wins like Payton Talbott (-1400) can add a small boost to any parlay. 

Here are my three UFC 311 parlays for Jan. 18 in Los Angeles.

UFC 311 Parlay: Barking Dogs (+716)

You can add Arman Tsarukyan (+300) or Jiri Prochazka (+110) to this list if you're a real dreamer, but I reckon these are the two main-card underdogs I have the most faith in. I've outlined my case for Merab many times now. Betting on Dvalishvili as a +250 underdog feels easy, given his relentless pressure, fire-hydrant strength, and ability to smother opponents. Umar is a great opponent, but he's not a -300 favorite as the odds suggest.

Dariush's long layoff worries me a bit, but he's still a very good takedown defense artist (80%), and his striking offense should give him an advantage over Renato Moicano. You can read more on my breakdown of that fight here. 

UFC 311: The UNDER Thunder (+721)

What's a UFC PPV without a violence parlay?

We'll start in the prelims with Bogdan Guskov, a light heavyweight newcomer who was slated to face Johnny Walker but will now challenge UFC rookie Billy Elekena. Guskov lost his UFC debut to Volkan Oezdemir, then rattled off back-to-back KO wins over Zac Pauga and Ryan Spann. He should feast vs a two-week notice replacement.

I've gushed plenty about Talbott this week. He's the second coming off Sean O'Malley with more strength and sizzle. Talbott has put his last two opponents out via KO, and he now challenges 37-year-old Raoni Barcelos as a -1400 favorite. 

Lastly, we'll go with Kevin Holland by knockout at +210. Holland’s speed and striking explosiveness give him the edge over Reinier De Ridder’s sheer mass and grappling prowess. While De Ridder’s UFC debut showed his grappling dominance, his sluggish standup leaves him vulnerable, making Holland by KO an enticing wager.

UFC 311 Parlay: A Reasonable Wager...Finally (+210)

This is a reasonable +210 wager. I laid out my case for Talbott, so let's address Islam and Hill. 

Makhachev, the pound-for-pound champ, boasts superior five-round experience and grappling, as seen in his 2019 win over Tsarukyan, where he controlled the fight with takedowns and pace. While both have evolved, Tsarukyan's struggles at UFC 300 and his history of gassing suggest Makhachev's relentless style will prevail again at UFC 311.

Hill’s mobility post-Achilles surgery raises questions, but his heavy punches, kicks, and ability to fight off the back foot (see UFC 283 vs. Teixeira) make him dangerous against Jiri’s forward pressure. In this three-round bout, playing it safe with Hill SU feels smarter than betting on a finish, especially in a parlay format.