UFC 311 takes place on Jan. 18 in Los Angeles, so it's only right we hit on some UFC 311 props ahead of the big night.
The main event is a lightweight title fight between Islam Makhachev and Arman Tsarukyan. I'll have a plus-money prop for that bout, plus a longshot play in the co-main event between Merab Dvalishvili and Umar Nurmagomedov.
UFC 311 Props: Makachev vs Tsarukyan 2
Makhachev by submission (+300)
This is my favorite prop bet of the evening. Both fighters are indeed wrestlers, but Tsarukyan has never even attempted a submission in the UFC. Islam will look for a chance to lock in that Anaconda squeeze when those scrambles happen.
Dustin Poirier spoke after UFC 302, suggesting that Islam wasn't as strong as Khabib Nurmagomedov but his squeeze was incredible. Islam is an incredible submission artist. Charles Oliveira came famously close to submitting Tsarukyan at UFC 300 last April. If you give Islam five rounds, he will find a way. I believe Makachev's pursuit in the later rounds will allow him to work to a submission. And at +300 for a five-round fight, I can do a lot worse for my UFC 311 props.
Merab Dvalishvili by decision (+360)
This fight is favored to go the distance (-260), so I'm not getting an incredible bargain on this prop bet. Still, as a staunch Merab supporter in this fight, I'll take the value.
Umar will be tough to stop. The Dagestani blends sharp striking with an anaconda-like squeeze, but Merab is a relentless machine. The champ is a whirlwind of movement and pressure. Sean O’Malley couldn’t set up combos against him, and I’d be shocked if Umar managed to piece him up consistently.
When he's not moving, Merab will look for takedowns of his own and use his strength to smother Umar. Dvalishvili has won 10 of his 11 UFC wins by decision. Let's make it 11.
Kevin Holland by KO (+200)
I've thought a lot about this Holland vs Reinier De Ridder fight, which currently features pick'em odds. De Ridder is an excellent grappler, and he employs a unique kickboxing style on the feet, using tons of front kicks. He's very big at 6-foot-4; Holland is tall, too, but not as filled out as De Ridder.
If the Dutchman mounts Holland, this fight will end quickly. It'll be up to Holland to deny takedown entries and keep this fight moving. I found De Ridder to be slow on the feet in his UFC debut vs Gerald Meerschaert. After rewatching that fight, I kept thinking "Holland will knock this guy out." "Trailblazer" is faster and whippier. He'll get to De Ridder sooner than later, so I'll risk a KO wager at +200.
Payton Talbott by KO (-160)
I'll make this last one quick, as Talbott is a -1400 favorite vs Brazilian Raoni Barcelos. Talbott is a red-hot prospect coming off a 19-second knockout win at UFC 303. Before that, Talbot decimated Cameron Saaiman in an epic back-and-forth tilt, ending the fight in Round 2 with a check hook.
Talbott is everything Sean O'Malley was as a prospect, except Talbott appears stronger and more durable. He'll crunch the 37-year-old Barcelos.
