Israel Adesanya is a -164 favorite over Nassourdine Imavov (+128) on FanDuel ahead of this middleweight main event at UFC Saudi Arabia on Feb. 1.
The Adesanya vs Imavov odds are hard to argue with, as despite Adesanya's consecutive losses, his pedigree puts the public on his side over the surging Frenchman Imavov.
Adesanya vs Imavov Odds
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Israel Adesanya | -164 |
| Nassourdine Imavov | +128 |
Odds as of Jan. 31 at FanDuel
How To Bet Imavov
I'm not sure how this line will move closer to UFC Saudi Arabia on Feb. 1, but I like Imavov ML at the current price. Stylistically, Imavov is well-rounded, though he often defaults to grappling attacks when things get hairy. He'll be at a five-inch reach disadvantage vs Izzy, which suggests he'll likely attempt striking exchanges before transitioning to a grappling-heavy attack (like DDP did at UFC 305).
Adesanya's 75% takedown defense isn't stellar, and the former champ looked very labored in his movements vs Du Plessis last time around. By Round 4, Du Plessis wrangled him down and put him away instantly with a submission. Imavov is younger (29) than Adesanya (35) and more motivated. I'll bet him as an underdog, and I'll look to the round OVERs as Fight Night nears.
How To Bet Adesanya
I'm not sure we can lay Izzy as a SU favorite, especially at -165 to -180. He didn't look like himself last time out, and his performance at UFC 305 made his loss to Sean Strickland in 2023 suddenly look much less like a fluke. "The Last Stylebender" has looked stuck in cement over his last nine UFC rounds. He's slower and less dynamic.
Imavov is a very good match for Izzy at this point in his career. Adesanya could rattle off a vintage performance, as, despite his weaker strikes, he was just as accurate and voluminous as DDP was from a striking perspective (90 sig. strikes for DDP to Adesanya's 97). After 25 minutes, the numbers could make this Imavov fight look close.
If you're on Adesanya, I recommend betting him by decision. Imavov has not been stopped since his first pro MMA fight in 2016.
Adesanya vs Imavov Picks: UFC Saudi Arabia
Sportsbooks project this fight to go the distance (-174), so playing the total rounds isn't worth it. I'm otherwise very keen on betting Imavov as the +128 underdog ahead of UFC Saudi Arabia. Let the changing of the guard begin.
