Thursday is a fun day in general. Why can't it be even greater for MLB expert picks? We had some bad luck a day ago, meaning we're due for a win today.
Here are my MLB expert picks for June 20th, 2024:
MLB Expert Picks: June 19th, 2024
You can jump directly to today's picks here:
Pick 1: Royals (-160) vs A's
Matchup Preview - Game Time: 3:37 pm ET
The line is suspicious, and I think it's because sportsbooks think our main man Seth Lugo is cooked. Spoiler: he ain't, despite a dip in his numbers.
Through Lugo's first 10 starts, he posted a shiny 1.79 ERA. He has since posted a 3.66 ERA in his last five outings, and the disrespect from sportsbooks began. Firstly, those numbers aren't even bad, and he's pitching at least six innings every start during that span and held opponents to a .663 OPS. Yes, Lugo's strikeouts have fallen (he's gone UNDER on his K props in five straight), but that may soon be rectified. Oakland is the second-worst strikeout ball club by both total strikeouts and strikeout rate.
And while things haven't been so swell for KC lately (2-8 L10), the offense hasn't slowed. Power numbers have trailed off, but the Royals still have eight players with a 100 wRC+ or above over the last two weeks. The Royals can handle the A's with Lugo on the mound.
Pick 2: Nationals (-140) vs D-Backs
Matchup Preview - Game Time: 1:05 pm ET
In my opinion, it won't be long before Mackenzie Gore thrusts himself into the NL Cy Young conversation. The young lefty is prone to blow-up outings, but he's been otherwise great lately, posting a 3.07 ERA over his last seven outings with 49 strikeouts in 41 innings.
Now the Nats haven't always been able to back up their budding star — we even saw Gore fight a teammate in the dugout — but that has improved lately. Washington is 3-1 SU in Gore's last four starts. Overall, the Nationals are 8-2 SU in their last 10, tying them up for that final NL Wild Card spot.
The Nationals have something to play for, and the matchup with Arizona should benefit them. Arizona starter Ryne Nelson has not been good this year (5.49 ERA), and he blends low whiff with high-contact, a perfect recipe for an average Nationals offense to boost itself for a few runs.
