Last year’s home run chase was epic: Aaron Judge vs History. But maybe this year’s homer battle will be a bit more competitive.
Ahead of the 2023 MLB season, books have released league-wide home run leader odds and Judge is the clear favorite to repeat. That’s not a surprise after a year in which he clubbed 62 homers, 16 more than runner-up Kyle Schwarber. However, there are also some value picks beyond the big Bronx Bomber on the board:
Major League Baseball Home Run Leader Odds
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Aaron Judge | +600 |
| Pete Alonso | +900 |
| Vlad Guerrero Jr. | +900 |
| Mike Trout | +1000 |
| Yordan Alvarez | +1000 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | +1100 |
| Kyle Schwarber | +1200 |
| Shohei Ohtani | +1200 |
| Austin Riley | +1400 |
| Matt Olson | +2000 |
| Kyle Tucker | +2000 |
| Giancarlo Stanton | +2500 |
| Eloy Jimenez | +3300 |
| Juan Soto | +3300 |
| Mookie Betts | +3400 |
| Byron Buxton | +4000 |
| Rafael Devers | +4000 |
| Jose Ramirez | +4000 |
| Ronald Acuna Jr. | +4000 |
| Julio Rodriguez | +4000 |
Odds as of March 29, 2023
Can Aaron Judge Repeat History?
What next, Mr. Judge? Sixty-five? Seventy?
It’ll be hard for Judge to top his American League record-setting 62 homers from a year ago, but he’s still the clear favorite to lead MLB in dingers. To give you some perspective, top projection systems ZiPS and Steamer have Judge hitting at least 15 fewer home runs than he did a year ago. But both projections also have him easily leading baseball.
Judge may not give us an AL MVP encore, but he’ll still mash. The question with him has always been health. Last season marked just the third time in seven years that he has played more than 120 games. If he’s healthy, he’s a near lock for this HR crown. If not, the race gets real interesting.
Captain's ready for the season! Aaron Judge homers to take the lead!
— YES Network (@YESNetwork) March 26, 2023
Watch LIVE: https://t.co/aRu5PF6QsA pic.twitter.com/B9qNttWgdE
HR Leader Value: Julio Rodriguez
In Julio Rodriguez’s rookie season, the 21-year-old Mariner added 28 homers alongside his 25 stolen bases and .853 OPS. It wasn’t gaudy power, certainly not Judgeian, but J-Rod’s homers came in “just” 132 games.
Give him a full season and another year of growth, and the 2022 Rookie of the Year could be adding Home Run King to his collection soon.
Rowdy Tellez Could Surprise
Only nine players hit balls harder than Rowdy Tellez last year. The big Brewers slugger had a higher max exit velocity than Mike Trout, Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper and Juan Soto.
ROWDY TELLEZ 453-FT GRAND SLAM 💥 @BRWalkoff
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) May 5, 2022
WOW.
(via @BallySportWI)pic.twitter.com/qPbKXswtoL
For the first time, all those hard-hit baseballs turned into homers for Tellez, as he reached a career high (35 HRs) in his age 27 season. Considering he’d never previously hit more than 21 round-trippers, 2022 seems like an outlier. But maybe it’s the sign of Tellez figuring it out. He’s always had the big power but the playing time and consistency haven’t been there.
If he takes another homer jump into the 40s, he could easily lead baseball in dingers this year.
MLB Betting Trends & Reports
Picks by League
MLB HR Leader Prop FAQ
Can I bet on who will lead MLB in home runs?
Yes, you can bet on who will lead MLB in home runs. Wagering on which player will lead Major League Baseball in home runs is one of the most exciting ways in which to wager on America’s favorite pastime. If the old saying is true, and chicks actually do dig the long ball, then they’ll definitely be digging dingers if it means more dollars in your baseball betting account.
Who led MLB in home runs in 2022?
Aaron Judge of the New York Yankees easily won the home run crown in 2022, swatting 62 big flies to set an American League record. He had 16 more home runs than runner-up Kyle Schwarber (46) of the Philadelphia Phillies.
