The 2025 MLB regular season continues on March 19 in Tokyo after the Dodgers bested the Cubs in Game 1.
Game 1 marked an easy NRFI, cashing on our first NRFU pick of the season. Game 2 could play out a little differently with rookie Roki Sasaki on the mound for L.A. vs Justin Steele of Chicago.
Here is my lone NRFI pick and analysis for March 19:
NRFI Pick Today: Dodgers vs Cubs (-115)
Dodgers vs Cubs Odds - Game Time: 6:10 a.m. ET
Offense is typically scarce in the early part of the MLB season, as hitters often need time to settle into their rhythm. After Tuesday morning's game sailed to an easy NRFI, I’m expecting a similar outcome for March 19, as early-season matchups in March and April often favor UNDERs and NRFIs.
The Tokyo Dome continued to play like an UNDER stadium, which was expected given its Baseball Savant Park Factor scores. For "runs scored," the Tokyo Dome scored 96 in 2019, 62 in 2012, and 94 in 2008 during limited MLB samples. Now, that's not a massive amount of data, but it still gives the NRFI an edge, as, clearly, fewer runs are scored in this ballpark (100 Park Factor is average).
As for the pitching matchups, Sasaki brings more uncertainty than Yoshinobu Yamamoto did yesterday. You could argue Sasaki will choke in his first MLB start, but I'm not a believer this kid has anything but star power pumping through his veins. Sasaki has carved in spring training (7 IP, 0 ER, 7 K), so I'll bet he shuts the Cubs out in the first inning in front of a screaming Japanese crowd.
On the other end, Steele makes for another strong NRFI ambassador. The lefty pitched to a 3.00 first-inning ERA in 24 starts a season ago, limiting opposing hitters to a .195 BA and .566 OPS.
All signs point toward another NRFI on Tuesday and perhaps even a second straight UNDER.
