The 2024 NBA playoffs are officially underway, and the countdown is on as we head towards the best from both the Eastern and Western Conferences colliding in the Finals for a shot at hoisting the Larry O'Brien trophy.
The participants have still yet to be decided, but as we slowly move towards determining who the Association's next champion shall be, taking a look at the last decade of Finals matchups and nitpicking the odds and trends surrounding them will better equip bettors of the sport.
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NBA Finals Historical Series Betting
Now it hasn't been a clean sweep since 2014 for the Western Conference champions capturing the NBA crown, but as we can plainly see here, oddsmakers have been infatuated with the best of the West by favoring them in each and every series during this stretch.
The biggest discrepancy came in 2017 when the Golden State Warriors were an overwhelming -2000 favorite to defeat the Cleveland Cavaliers, with Golden State ultimately winning that series in five games.
Year | Western Conference Champion | Opening Odds | Eastern Conference Champion | Odds |
---|---|---|---|---|
2023 | Denver Nuggets | -430 | Miami Heat | +330 |
2022 | Golden State Warriors | -190 | Boston Celtics | +280 |
2021 | Phoenix Suns | -200 | Milwaukee Bucks | +165 |
2020 | Los Angeles Lakers | -330 | Miami Heat | +265 |
2019 | Golden State Warriors | -280 | Toronto Raptors | +175 |
2018 | Golden State Warriors | -167 | Cleveland Cavaliers | +1100 |
2017 | Golden State Warriors | -2000 | Cleveland Cavaliers | +1000 |
2016 | Golden State Warriors | -200 | Cleveland Cavaliers | +162 |
2015 | Golden State Warriors | -190 | Cleveland Cavaliers | +170 |
2014 | San Antonio Spurs | -125 | Miami Heat | +105 |
Starting Off Hot at home In Game 1
Kicking off a series with a home victory doesn't always tell the tale of how it will ultimately unfold, but it's as good a start as any if you're looking to win four of seven.
The home side has been favored to take Game 1 each of the last 10 years, with the underdog only covering the spread on two occasions.
Year | Home Team | Game 1 Final Score | Home Team Spread | Result |
---|---|---|---|---|
2023 | Denver Nuggets | 104-93 Nuggets over Heat | Nuggets -9 | Nuggets Cover (Favorites) |
2022 | Golden State Warriors | 120-98 Celtics over Warriors | Warriors -3.5 | Celtics Cover (Underdogs) |
2021 | Phoenix Suns | 118-105 Suns over Bucks | Suns -6 | Suns Cover (Favorites) |
2020 | Los Angeles Lakers | 116-98 Lakers over Heat | Lakers -5 | Lakers Cover (Favorites) |
2019 | Toronto Raptors | 118-109 Raptors over Warriors | Raptors -1.5 | Raptors Cover (Favorites) |
2018 | Golden State Warriors | 124-114 Warriors over Cavaliers | Warriors -12 | Cavaliers Cover (Underdogs) |
2017 | Golden State Warriors | 113-91 Warriors over Cavaliers | Warriors -7.5 | Warriors Cover (Favorites) |
2016 | Golden State Warriors | 104-89 Warriors over Cavaliers | Warriors -6 | Warriors Cover (Favorites) |
2015 | Golden State Warriors | 108-100 Warriors over Cavaliers | Warriors -6 | Warriors Cover (Favorites) |
2014 | San Antonio Spurs | 110-95 Spurs over Heat | Spurs -4.5 | Spurs Cover (Favorites) |
Length Matters
A fun prop to bet on throughout any postseason is wagering on how long a specific series will go.
In the case of the Finals, with the exception of the Warriors-Cavaliers matchup which graced us for far too long from 2015 through 2018, there was a four-year streak of the series going exactly six games prior to the Denver Nuggets beating the Heat in 2023 in just five.
Year | Matchup | Result | Total Games |
---|---|---|---|
2023 | Miami Heat vs. Denver Nuggets | Nuggets 4-1 | 5 |
2022 | Boston Celtics vs. Golden State Warriors | Warriors 4-2 | 6 |
2021 | Phoenix Suns vs. Milwaukee Bucks | Bucks 4-2 | 6 |
2020 | Miami Heat vs. Los Angeles Lakers | Lakers 4-2 | 6 |
2019 | Toronto Raptors vs. Golden State Warriors | Raptors 4-2 | 6 |
2018 | Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Golden State Warriors | Warriors 4-0 | 4 |
2017 | Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Golden State Warriors | Warriors 4-1 | 5 |
2016 | Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Golden State Warriors | Cavaliers 4-3 | 7 |
2015 | Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Golden State Warriors | Warriors 4-2 | 6 |
2014 | Miami Heat vs. San Antonio Spurs | Spurs 4-1 | 5 |