NBA Player Props Today: Revenge Game In Store For Wiggins vs Warriors

Our NBA player prop expert picks had a rough showing on Monday at 1-3, but circumstances which were unforeseen earlier in the day could have salvaged units had they been known ahead of wagering. That's the risk you take when betting on basketball, though, so hopefully we can bounce back with the eight-game slate on Tuesday.

Here are four player props all pertaining to scoring to consider, including an OVER for Miami Heat forward Andrew Wiggins (-114) as he battles his former team in the visiting Golden State Warriors on March 25, 2025.

Andrew Wiggins OVER 21.5 Points vs. Warriors (-114 at Sportsbook)

Preview: Golden State Warriors vs. Miami Heat, 7:30 p.m. ET

This has "revenge game" written all over it, although most bettors may gravitate towards Jimmy Butler as he makes his first appearance back in South Beach following his tumultuous departure from the Heat organization. Butler's numbers can be very sporadic, so let's roll with Wiggins as his offensive output has been far more consistent as of late.

Wiggins has been a top-25 scorer in the Association in March by averaging 23.7 points per game, and of the 24 players sitting ahead of him, only two players (Zion Williamson and Giannis Antetokounmpo) are shooting better from the field than him (56.1 percent). The Canadian forward is coming off his strongest performance yet with Miami after dropping 42 points against the Charlotte Hornets on Sunday, knocking down 16 of his 21 shot attempts. 

With his scoring prop set at 21.5 points on Tuesday, Wiggins has at least exceeded that number in two-straight outings and four of his last five. On a roster alongside All-Star Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo, it's been Wiggins leading the charge on the offensive end this month, and with the added incentive of wanting to get a victory over his former team, we could be in store for much more than the line suggests by oddsmakers. 

Fred VanVleet OVER 14.5 Points vs. Hawks (-125 at Sportsbook)

Preview: Atlanta Hawks vs. Houston Rockets, 8 p.m. ET

According to Odds Shark's defensive metrics, only eight other teams are allowing more points per game to opposing point guards than the Atlanta Hawks, who also sit 22nd overall in defensive efficiency since coming back from the All-Star break. The up-and-down scoring nature of Houston Rockets floor general Fred VanVleet could always use some assistance like the lack of resistance Atlanta may be putting forth at the Toyota Center tonight.

Following a 37-point performance against the Heat on March 21, VanVleet followed it up with just seven points at home against the Denver Nuggets on March 23. For what it's worth, the last two times he finished in single-digit scoring, VanVleet had 19 or more points the very next game.  

He's still gone OVER 14.5 points in three of his last five games, and hopefully that dreary showing versus Denver will invigorate a return to form with much stronger numbers against the Hawks here.

Naji Marshall OVER 17.5 Points vs. Knicks (-110 at Sportsbook)

Preview: Dallas Mavericks vs. New York Knicks, 7:30 p.m. ET

This is an attempt to make good on a PRA bet from Monday in which we took the OVER on 28.5 when the Dallas Mavericks blew out the Brooklyn Nets on the road. Naji Marshall just fell UNDER with 28 (22 points, four rebounds, and two assists), but he was still incredibly close despite being moved to the second unit in favor of a returning Anthony Davis, which goes back to those aforementioned circumstances which cost us units. 

Davis did say following the victory that he doesn't anticipate hitting the floor at Madison Square Garden later tonight, and that he's likely to be back for Thursday's matchup with the Orlando Magic. This should be music to the ears of Marshall fans, as he should be reinserted into the starting lineup and therefore have a stronger chance of going OVER 17.5 points versus a formidable Knicks defense.

Despite coming off the bench last night, Marshall still managed to extend his streak of OVERs on 17.5 points to five-straight games with just one UNDER in his last 11 tries. That's a pattern worth taking advantage of with Davis absent, because once the superstar big man returns and his minutes and role expands, we may see a downturn in Marshall's statistics. 

Toumani Camara OVER 12.5 Points vs. Cavaliers (-105 at Sportsbook)

Preview: Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Portland Trail Blazers, 10 p.m. ET

Perhaps the hesitancy comes from having to play the second-best team in the league in the Cleveland Cavaliers, but getting -105 value on a scoring prop for Portland Trail Blazers wing Toumani Camara should feel like a gift from oddsmakers considering the roll he's been on.

A line of 12.5 is incredibly reasonable and almost low for a player averaging 17 points over his last five games while having converted exactly half of his 32 3-point attempts. It was earlier this month on March 2 during a 133-129 overtime loss to Cleveland that Camara had 19 points in 43 minutes of action, as well. 

Riding a wave of five-straight OVERs on this number is more than enough reason to trust Camara to make it a sixth against a Cavaliers team he just accomplished that feat against several weeks ago. 

NBA Best Player Prop Trends Today

Jimmy Butler UNDER 6.5 rebounds vs MIA (-125 At Sportsbook)

Butler has been consistently struggling to clear his rebound total on the road, going under 6.5 rebounds in six straight away games. That trend isn’t exactly screaming for a bounce-back, especially against a Miami Heat squad that’s been stingy against small forwards all season.

The Heat allow just 7.23 rebounds per game to the position, the fifth-best mark in the league, which makes life even tougher for Butler on the glass. Plus, with his season average sitting at 5.6 rebounds per game, asking him to suddenly go over this line on the road against a solid rebounding team feels like wishful thinking.

If you’re a bettor, the UNDER here has to be tempting. It’s backed by recent form and a tough matchup, and the stats all point in the same direction. Unless Butler finds a way to dominate on the boards out of nowhere, this feels like a safe play.

- Ethan Diamandas