The California Golden Bears (6-6) roll down the coast to Inglewood for a matchup against UNLV (10-3) in the L.A. Bowl. Cal opened as a -3 point favorite and after jumping around a bit, the line is now -1.5 (-104) at Sportsbook but you can also find pick’em odds at other sportsbooks such as Sportsbook. The Over/Under total opened at 51.5 and has dropped a tick down to 48.5.
Before we lay down the pick, gotta give you some numbers from their last meeting back in 2022. Cal (-12) squeezed out a 20-14 victory at home but failed to cover the double digit spread. The Over/Under was posted at 49.5 and went low.
California vs UNLV L.A. Bowl Odds
California vs UNLV, Dec. 18, 9:00 pm ET
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| California Golden Bears | -1.5 (-104) | -113 | O48.5 (-105) |
| UNLV Runnin' Rebels | +1.5 (-118) | -106 | U48.6 (-115) |
Odds as of December 16 at Sportsbook
California vs UNLV L.A. Bowl Pick
UNLV ML (-106) at Sportsbook
Before we get to the pick, gotta tell you about the four most important words in the handicapping dictionary. Transfer portal and Opt Out. This will color EVERY PICK on the bowl board. Do your homework, read as much as you can before game time, then you can figure out how wide to open your wallet.
Along with everyone else, it was kinda stunning to see a 6-6 California team open up as a favorite against a 10-3 UNLV squad. We understand that Vegas lost their head coach Barry Odom to Purdue and he WILL NOT coach in the L.A. Bowl hosted by GRONK. The game was bet up to -5 at Sportsbook and then news came that Cal's starting QB Fernando Mendoza has entered the transfer portal.
As we sit at the keyboard, Mendoza has not been officially ruled out, but the thinking is he will not suit up. That's why the line dropped all the way back down to -1.5. All this line movement is created by the wise guys or sharps, that are looking for any edge. They drove the line up to -5, then dropped it all the way down to -1.5, and passed through the KEY number of -3. When the wise guys can create a middle like that, the sportsbooks start shaking.
Back to the Cal QB situation. Mendoza had a fabulous season for the Bears, hitting on almost 70% of his passes for 3,004 yards with 16 TDs and six INTs. He missed the last game against SMU and Cal was CRUSHED, 38-6. Chandler Rogers took over and was just EH, 8 of 15 for 84 yards, then got hurt. So they had to turn to their third string QB, CJ Harris, who was 6 of 11 for 75 yards.
On the UNLV side, yea, Coach Odom is gone, but from what I've have heard around town, the kids love WR coach Del Alexander who will take the X & O board. The other arm, UNLV's Hajj-Malik Williams, is a true dual threat. Williams hit on 145 of 234 for 1,845 yards with 17 TDs and five INTs -- Sportsbook has his passing TDs props at O1.5 (+138). When he takes off, you can chalk up 824 yards on the ground this season.
Looking at the LEGOmetrics, both teams had three common opponents. Both teams beat San Diego State and Oregon State and both lost to Syracuse.
If Cal is playing a backup to the backup and UNLV's QB Williams and RB Thomas are both a go, then ya gotta gimme the Rebels for the money!
California vs UNLV L.A. Bowl Prop Pick
Jai'Den Thomas Anytime TD at +115 at Sportsbook
Thomas has been carrying most of the mail for the Rebels and he has scored a touchdown in four of his last five games. Once UNLV gets into the red zone, Jai'Den is gonna win us some cash!
California vs UNLV Betting Trends
- Cal has gone UNDER in seven of its 12 games with one that resulted in a push.
- UNLV is on a 4-0 straight up run and has won 10 of the last 13.
- UNLV has gone OVER in nine of the last 15 games.
