For the first time in nearly 30 years, the No. 5 seeds both won and covered the spread in all four March Madness opening round matchups last season. Unusually strong fifth-seeded teams may have something to do with it, as Duke, Miami, San Diego State and Saint Mary’s were the No.5’s.
Having said that, No. 12 seeds have had success as March Madness bracket busters historically. 12 seeds have an impressive 35% winning percentage in the first round. Interestingly enough, No. 12 seeds have at least one victory in 17 of 22 NCAAB Tournaments since 2000. Two years ago, both UConn and Iowa fell as No. 5 seeds. While Oregon State knocked off Tennessee 70-56 in 2021.
However, it’s important to keep in mind 12-seeds are just 14-26 SU and 21-18-1 ATS over the last 10 tournaments (40 games).
2024 5 vs 12 Seed March Madness Matchups
The vaunted No. 12 seeds are represented by James Madison, UAB, Grand Canyon, and McNeese State in this year's March Madness opening round.
South: No. 5 Wisconsin vs No. 12 James Madison
East: No. 5 San Diego State vs No. 12 UAB
West: No. 5 Saint Mary's vs No. 12 Grand Canyon
Midwest: No. 5 Gonzaga vs No. 12 McNeese State
Seed vs Seed Stats: 1 vs 16 | 2 vs 15 | 3 vs 14 | 4 vs 13 | 5 vs 12 | 6 vs 11 | 7 vs 10 | 8 vs 9
| #5 Seed | Score | #12 Seed | Score | Date | ATS Win | Win Seed | ATS Seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wisconsin | 61 | James Madison | 72 | 2024-03-22 | James Madison | 12 | 12 |
| San Diego St. | 69 | UAB | 65 | 2024-03-22 | UAB | 5 | 12 |
| Saint Mary's | 66 | Grand Canyon | 75 | 2024-03-22 | Grand Canyon | 12 | 12 |
| Gonzaga | 86 | McNeese St. | 65 | 2024-03-21 | Gonzaga | 5 | 5 |
| San Diego State | 63 | Col. Of Charleston | 57 | 2023-03-16 | San Diego State | 5 | 5 |
| Miami | 63 | Drake | 56 | 2023-03-17 | Miami | 5 | 5 |
| Duke | 74 | Oral Roberts | 51 | 2023-03-16 | Duke | 5 | 5 |
| Saint Mary’s | 63 | VCU | 51 | 2023-03-17 | Saint Mary's | 5 | 5 |
| Iowa | 63 | Richmond | 67 | 2022-03-17 | Richmond | 12 | 12 |
| Saint Mary’s | 82 | Indiana | 53 | 2022-03-17 | Saint Mary’s | 5 | 5 |
| Houston | 82 | UAB | 68 | 2022-03-18 | Houston | 5 | 5 |
| UConn | 63 | New Mexico State | 70 | 2022-03-17 | New Mexico State | 12 | 12 |
| Tennessee | 56 | Oregon State | 70 | 2021-03-19 | Oregon State | 12 | 12 |
| Villanova | 73 | Winthrop | 63 | 2021-03-19 | Villanova | 5 | 5 |
| Colorado | 96 | Georgetown | 73 | 2021-03-20 | Colorado | 5 | 5 |
| Creighton | 63 | UC Santa Barbara | 62 | 2021-03-20 | UC Santa Barbara | 5 | 12 |
| Mississippi State | 76 | Liberty | 80 | 2019-03-22 | Liberty | 12 | 12 |
| Marquette | 64 | Murray State | 83 | 2019-03-21 | Murray State | 12 | 12 |
| Wisconsin | 54 | Oregon | 72 | 2019-03-22 | Oregon | 12 | 12 |
| Auburn | 78 | New Mexico State | 77 | 2019-03-21 | New Mexico State | 5 | 12 |
| West Virginia | 85 | Murray State | 68 | 2018-03-16 | West Virginia | 5 | 5 |
| Clemson | 79 | New Mexico State | 68 | 2018-03-16 | Clemson | 5 | 5 |
| Ohio State | 81 | South Dakota State | 73 | 2018-03-15 | South Dakota State | 5 | 12 |
| Kentucky | 78 | Davidson | 73 | 2018-03-15 | Kentucky | 5 | 5 |
| Minnesota | 72 | Middle Tennessee | 81 | 2017-03-17 | Middle Tennessee | 12 | 12 |
| Virginia | 76 | UNC Wilmington | 71 | 2017-03-16 | UNC Wilmington | 5 | 12 |
| Iowa State | 84 | Nevada | 73 | 2017-03-16 | Iowa State | 5 | 5 |
| Notre Dame | 83 | Princeton | 71 | 2017-03-16 | Notre Dame | 5 | 5 |
| Maryland | 79 | South Dakota State | 74 | 2016-03-18 | South Dakota State | 5 | 12 |
| Indiana | 99 | Chattanooga | 74 | 2016-03-17 | Indiana | 5 | 5 |
| Purdue | 83 | Little Rock | 85 | 2016-03-17 | Little Rock | 12 | 12 |
| Baylor | 75 | Yale | 79 | 2016-03-17 | Yale | 12 | 12 |
| Northern Iowa | 71 | Wyoming | 54 | 2015-03-21 | Northern Iowa | 5 | 5 |
| Utah | 57 | Stephen F. Austin | 50 | 2015-03-20 | Stephen F. Austin | 5 | 5 |
| West Virginia | 68 | Buffalo | 62 | 2015-03-20 | West Virginia | 5 | 5 |
| Arkansas | 56 | Wofford | 53 | 2015-03-19 | Arkansas | 5 | 12 |
| Virginia Commonwealth | 75 | Stephen F. Austin | 77 | 2014-03-21 | Stephen F. Austin | 12 | 12 |
| Oklahoma | 75 | North Dakota State | 80 | 2014-03-20 | North Dakota State | 12 | 12 |
| Saint Louis | 83 | North Carolina State | 80 | 2014-03-20 | PUSH | 5 | |
| Cincinnati | 57 | Harvard | 61 | 2014-03-20 | Harvard | 12 | 12 |
| Wisconsin | 46 | Mississippi | 57 | 2013-03-22 | Mississippi | 12 | 12 |
| Virginia Commonwealth | 88 | Akron | 42 | 2013-03-21 | Virginia Commonwealth | 5 | 5 |
| UNLV | 61 | California | 64 | 2013-03-21 | California | 12 | 12 |
| Oklahoma State | 55 | Oregon | 68 | 2013-03-21 | Oregon | 12 | 12 |
| Temple | 44 | South Florida | 58 | 2012-03-16 | South Florida | 12 | 12 |
| Wichita State | 59 | Virginia Commonwealth | 62 | 2012-03-15 | Virginia Commonwealth | 12 | 12 |
| Vanderbilt | 79 | Harvard | 70 | 2012-03-15 | Vanderbilt | 5 | 5 |
| New Mexico | 75 | Long Beach State | 68 | 2012-03-15 | New Mexico | 5 | 5 |
| Arizona | 77 | Memphis | 75 | 2011-03-18 | Memphis | 5 | 12 |
| Kansas State | 73 | Utah State | 68 | 2011-03-17 | Kansas State | 5 | 5 |
| Vanderbilt | 66 | Richmond | 69 | 2011-03-17 | Richmond | 12 | 12 |
| West Virginia | 84 | Clemson | 76 | 2011-03-17 | West Virginia | 5 | 5 |
| Michigan State | 70 | New Mexico State | 67 | 2010-03-19 | New Mexico State | 5 | 12 |
| Texas A&M | 69 | Utah State | 53 | 2010-03-19 | Texas A&M | 5 | 5 |
| Temple | 65 | Cornell | 78 | 2010-03-19 | Cornell | 12 | 12 |
| Butler | 77 | Texas El Paso | 59 | 2010-03-18 | Butler | 5 | 5 |
| Florida State | 59 | Wisconsin | 61 | 2009-03-20 | Wisconsin | 12 | 12 |
| Utah | 71 | Arizona | 84 | 2009-03-20 | Arizona | 12 | 12 |
| Illinois | 72 | Western Kentucky | 76 | 2009-03-19 | Western Kentucky | 12 | 12 |
| Purdue | 61 | Northern Iowa | 56 | 2009-03-19 | Northern Iowa | 5 | 12 |
| Clemson | 69 | Villanova | 75 | 2008-03-21 | Villanova | 12 | 12 |
| Drake | 99 | Western Kentucky | 101 | 2008-03-21 | Western Kentucky | 12 | 12 |
| Notre Dame | 68 | George Mason | 50 | 2008-03-20 | Notre Dame | 5 | 5 |
| Michigan State | 72 | Temple | 61 | 2008-03-20 | Michigan State | 5 | 5 |
| USC | 77 | Arkansas | 60 | 2007-03-16 | USC | 5 | 5 |
| Virginia Tech | 54 | Illinois | 52 | 2007-03-16 | Illinois | 5 | 12 |
| Tennessee | 121 | Long Beach State | 86 | 2007-03-16 | Tennessee | 5 | 5 |
| Butler | 57 | Old Dominion | 46 | 2007-03-15 | Butler | 5 | 5 |
| Pittsburgh | 79 | Kent State | 64 | 2006-03-17 | Pittsburgh | 5 | 5 |
| Washington | 75 | Utah State | 61 | 2006-03-16 | Washington | 5 | 5 |
| Syracuse | 58 | Texas A&M | 66 | 2006-03-16 | Texas A&M | 12 | 12 |
| Nevada | 79 | Montana | 87 | 2006-03-16 | Montana | 12 | 12 |
| Michigan State | 89 | Old Dominion | 81 | 2005-03-18 | Michigan State | 5 | 5 |
| Georgia Tech | 80 | George Washington | 68 | 2005-03-18 | Georgia Tech | 5 | 5 |
| Villanova | 55 | New Mexico | 47 | 2005-03-18 | Villanova | 5 | 5 |
| Alabama | 73 | Wisc-Milwaukee | 83 | 2005-03-17 | Wisc-Milwaukee | 12 | 12 |
| Providence | 58 | Pacific | 66 | 2004-03-19 | Pacific | 12 | 12 |
| Illinois | 72 | Murray State | 53 | 2004-03-19 | Illinois | 5 | 5 |
| Syracuse | 80 | BYU | 75 | 2004-03-18 | Syracuse | 5 | 5 |
| Florida | 60 | Manhattan | 75 | 2004-03-18 | Manhattan | 12 | 12 |
| Mississippi State | 46 | Butler | 47 | 2003-03-21 | Butler | 12 | 12 |
| Notre Dame | 70 | Wisc-Milwaukee | 69 | 2003-03-20 | Wisc-Milwaukee | 5 | 12 |
| Wisconsin | 81 | Weber State | 74 | 2003-03-20 | Wisconsin | 5 | 5 |
| Connecticut | 58 | BYU | 53 | 2003-03-20 | Connecticut | 5 | 5 |
| Florida | 82 | Creighton | 83 | 2002-03-15 | Creighton | 12 | 12 |
| Miami | 80 | Missouri | 93 | 2002-03-14 | Missouri | 12 | 12 |
| Indiana | 75 | Utah | 56 | 2002-03-14 | Indiana | 5 | 5 |
| Marquette | 69 | Tulsa | 71 | 2002-03-14 | Tulsa | 12 | 12 |
| Virginia | 85 | Gonzaga | 86 | 2001-03-16 | Gonzaga | 12 | 12 |
| Syracuse | 79 | Hawaii | 69 | 2001-03-16 | Syracuse | 5 | 5 |
| Ohio State | 68 | Utah State | 77 | 2001-03-15 | Utah State | 12 | 12 |
| Cincinnati | 84 | BYU | 59 | 2001-03-15 | Cincinnati | 5 | 5 |
| Florida | 69 | Butler | 68 | 2000-03-17 | Butler | 5 | 12 |
| Connecticut | 75 | Utah State | 67 | 2000-03-17 | Utah State | 5 | 12 |
| Kentucky | 85 | St. Bonaventure | 80 | 2000-03-16 | St. Bonaventure | 5 | 12 |
| Texas | 77 | Indiana State | 61 | 2000-03-16 | Texas | 5 | 5 |
| Wisconsin | 32 | Missouri State | 43 | 1999-03-12 | Missouri State | 12 | 12 |
| Charlotte | 81 | Rhode Island | 70 | 1999-03-12 | Charlotte | 5 | 5 |
| UCLA | 53 | Detroit | 56 | 1999-03-11 | Detroit | 12 | 12 |
| Iowa | 77 | UAB | 64 | 1999-03-11 | Iowa | 5 | 5 |
| TCU | 87 | Florida State | 96 | 1998-03-13 | Florida State | 12 | 12 |
| Syracuse | 63 | Iona | 61 | 1998-03-13 | Iona | 5 | 12 |
| Princeton | 69 | UNLV | 57 | 1998-03-12 | Princeton | 5 | 5 |
| Illinois | 64 | South Alabama | 51 | 1998-03-12 | Illinois | 5 | 5 |
| Tulsa | 81 | Boston University | 52 | 1997-03-14 | Tulsa | 5 | 5 |
| Boston College | 73 | Valparaiso | 66 | 1997-03-13 | Valparaiso | 5 | 12 |
| Maryland | 66 | College of Charleston | 75 | 1997-03-13 | College of Charleston | 12 | 12 |
| California | 55 | Princeton | 52 | 1997-03-13 | PUSH | 5 | |
| Memphis | 63 | Drexel | 75 | 1996-03-14 | Drexel | 12 | 12 |
| Mississippi State | 58 | Virginia Commonwealth | 51 | 1996-03-14 | Mississippi State | 5 | 5 |
| Iowa State | 74 | California | 64 | 1996-03-14 | Iowa State | 5 | 5 |
| Penn State | 80 | Arkansas | 86 | 1996-03-14 | Arkansas | 12 | 12 |
Why Should You Bet On A No. 12 Seed Over The No. 5 Seed?
Over the last 14 tournaments, No. 12 seeds are an impressive 33-22-1 against the spread while also going 24-32 straight up. In 2019, three No. 12 seeds won SU with just Auburn winning as a favorite but failing to cover.
For college basketball bettors, it is not so much whether you are going to pick an upset involving a No. 12 seed every year, but how many you are picking. In 2017, Middle Tennessee took out Minnesota although the lower-seeded Blue Raiders closed as the betting favorites.
In 2016, two No. 12 seeds survived and advanced when Yale and Little Rock upset Baylor and Purdue, respectively.
Will A 12 Seed Win March Madness?
No. 12 seeds seldom advance deep into the NCAA Tournament, with just two teams making it as far as the Elite Eight. But out of 52 No. 12 seeds that have upset No. 5 seeds in the first round since the tourney field expanded to 64 teams in 1985, 14 of them (25 percent) have followed that up with another victory.
In 2021, Oregon State advanced to the Elite Eight before getting knocked off by Houston. The Beavers making it to the Elite Eight marked only the second time that a 12 seed was able to achieve that feat. The other was the Missouri Tigers back in 2002.
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March Madness 5 vs 12 Betting History FAQ
Where can I bet on the 5 vs 12 seed March Madness games?
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How do I make a bet on the 5 vs 12 seed March Madness games?
Our How to Bet on March Madness guide offers everything you need to know when it comes to making a bet on the 5 vs 12 seed March Madness games. With March Madness betting strategy and March Madness betting tips, you’re guaranteed to find the best way to place a bet on any March Madness matchup.
When was the last time a 12 seed beat a 5 seed in March Madness?
The last time a 12 seed beat a 5 seed in March Madness was in 2022 when two of the lower seeds posted upsets. No. 12 Richmond got past No. 5 Iowa 67-63 and 12th-seeded New Mexico State handled 5 seed UConn 70-63.
