With March Madness upcoming, the 5 vs 12 matchups are about to be set and it marks where the skill imbalance starts to even out.
Seeing a No. 12 seed knock off a No. 5 seed happens consistently, with at least one upset shaking up the bracket in 33 of the last 39 tournaments.
How many times has the no. 5 seed been upset by the no. 12 seed?
Since 1985, No. 12 seeds carry a 55-101 record all-time against No. 5 seeds. It's been steady success, too. As I touched on above, there's been at least one 5 vs 12 upset in 33 of the last 39 tournaments with the exception of the following seasons: 1988, 2000, 2007, 2015, 2018 and 2023.
Notably, since the turn of the century, we've witnessed three or more 5 vs 12 upsets in the same March Madness in five separate years: 2002, 2009, 2013, 2014, 2019).
Ironically, 2023 marked the first time in 30 years that the No. 5 seeds both won and covered the spread in all four opening round matchups.
But, reality kicked back in the following year with No. 12 Grand Canyon eliminating No. 5 Saint Mary's, 75-66, as 5.5-point 'dogs and No. 12 James Madison following suit against No. 5 Wisconsin, 72-61.
What Seed Has The Recent ATS Edge?
Dating back to 1996, betting on 5 vs 12 matchups are a toss up with No. 12 seeds having a slight edge a 61-48-2 ATS record. However, the betting has gotten more competitive with No. 12 seeds going 15-13 ATS since 2017 and recording a 53.5% cover rate.
Odds of 12 seed beating 5 seed
Of the 156 5 vs 12 matchups accounted for, mathematically, the No. 12 seed has a 35.2% chance of defeating the No. 5 seed outright in March Madness.
no. 5 seed vs no. 12 seed History
| #5 Seed | Score | #12 Seed | Score | Date | ATS Win | Win Seed | ATS Seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wisconsin | 61 | James Madison | 72 | 2024-03-22 | James Madison | 12 | 12 |
| San Diego St. | 69 | UAB | 65 | 2024-03-22 | UAB | 5 | 12 |
| Saint Mary's | 66 | Grand Canyon | 75 | 2024-03-22 | Grand Canyon | 12 | 12 |
| Gonzaga | 86 | McNeese St. | 65 | 2024-03-21 | Gonzaga | 5 | 5 |
| San Diego State | 63 | Col. Of Charleston | 57 | 2023-03-16 | San Diego State | 5 | 5 |
| Miami | 63 | Drake | 56 | 2023-03-17 | Miami | 5 | 5 |
| Duke | 74 | Oral Roberts | 51 | 2023-03-16 | Duke | 5 | 5 |
| Saint Mary’s | 63 | VCU | 51 | 2023-03-17 | Saint Mary's | 5 | 5 |
| Iowa | 63 | Richmond | 67 | 2022-03-17 | Richmond | 12 | 12 |
| Saint Mary’s | 82 | Indiana | 53 | 2022-03-17 | Saint Mary’s | 5 | 5 |
| Houston | 82 | UAB | 68 | 2022-03-18 | Houston | 5 | 5 |
| UConn | 63 | New Mexico State | 70 | 2022-03-17 | New Mexico State | 12 | 12 |
| Tennessee | 56 | Oregon State | 70 | 2021-03-19 | Oregon State | 12 | 12 |
| Villanova | 73 | Winthrop | 63 | 2021-03-19 | Villanova | 5 | 5 |
| Colorado | 96 | Georgetown | 73 | 2021-03-20 | Colorado | 5 | 5 |
| Creighton | 63 | UC Santa Barbara | 62 | 2021-03-20 | UC Santa Barbara | 5 | 12 |
| Mississippi State | 76 | Liberty | 80 | 2019-03-22 | Liberty | 12 | 12 |
| Marquette | 64 | Murray State | 83 | 2019-03-21 | Murray State | 12 | 12 |
| Wisconsin | 54 | Oregon | 72 | 2019-03-22 | Oregon | 12 | 12 |
| Auburn | 78 | New Mexico State | 77 | 2019-03-21 | New Mexico State | 5 | 12 |
| West Virginia | 85 | Murray State | 68 | 2018-03-16 | West Virginia | 5 | 5 |
| Clemson | 79 | New Mexico State | 68 | 2018-03-16 | Clemson | 5 | 5 |
| Ohio State | 81 | South Dakota State | 73 | 2018-03-15 | South Dakota State | 5 | 12 |
| Kentucky | 78 | Davidson | 73 | 2018-03-15 | Kentucky | 5 | 5 |
| Minnesota | 72 | Middle Tennessee | 81 | 2017-03-17 | Middle Tennessee | 12 | 12 |
| Virginia | 76 | UNC Wilmington | 71 | 2017-03-16 | UNC Wilmington | 5 | 12 |
| Iowa State | 84 | Nevada | 73 | 2017-03-16 | Iowa State | 5 | 5 |
| Notre Dame | 83 | Princeton | 71 | 2017-03-16 | Notre Dame | 5 | 5 |
| Maryland | 79 | South Dakota State | 74 | 2016-03-18 | South Dakota State | 5 | 12 |
| Indiana | 99 | Chattanooga | 74 | 2016-03-17 | Indiana | 5 | 5 |
| Purdue | 83 | Little Rock | 85 | 2016-03-17 | Little Rock | 12 | 12 |
| Baylor | 75 | Yale | 79 | 2016-03-17 | Yale | 12 | 12 |
| Northern Iowa | 71 | Wyoming | 54 | 2015-03-21 | Northern Iowa | 5 | 5 |
| Utah | 57 | Stephen F. Austin | 50 | 2015-03-20 | Stephen F. Austin | 5 | 5 |
| West Virginia | 68 | Buffalo | 62 | 2015-03-20 | West Virginia | 5 | 5 |
| Arkansas | 56 | Wofford | 53 | 2015-03-19 | Arkansas | 5 | 12 |
| Virginia Commonwealth | 75 | Stephen F. Austin | 77 | 2014-03-21 | Stephen F. Austin | 12 | 12 |
| Oklahoma | 75 | North Dakota State | 80 | 2014-03-20 | North Dakota State | 12 | 12 |
| Saint Louis | 83 | North Carolina State | 80 | 2014-03-20 | PUSH | 5 | |
| Cincinnati | 57 | Harvard | 61 | 2014-03-20 | Harvard | 12 | 12 |
| Wisconsin | 46 | Mississippi | 57 | 2013-03-22 | Mississippi | 12 | 12 |
| Virginia Commonwealth | 88 | Akron | 42 | 2013-03-21 | Virginia Commonwealth | 5 | 5 |
| UNLV | 61 | California | 64 | 2013-03-21 | California | 12 | 12 |
| Oklahoma State | 55 | Oregon | 68 | 2013-03-21 | Oregon | 12 | 12 |
| Temple | 44 | South Florida | 58 | 2012-03-16 | South Florida | 12 | 12 |
| Wichita State | 59 | Virginia Commonwealth | 62 | 2012-03-15 | Virginia Commonwealth | 12 | 12 |
| Vanderbilt | 79 | Harvard | 70 | 2012-03-15 | Vanderbilt | 5 | 5 |
| New Mexico | 75 | Long Beach State | 68 | 2012-03-15 | New Mexico | 5 | 5 |
| Arizona | 77 | Memphis | 75 | 2011-03-18 | Memphis | 5 | 12 |
| Kansas State | 73 | Utah State | 68 | 2011-03-17 | Kansas State | 5 | 5 |
| Vanderbilt | 66 | Richmond | 69 | 2011-03-17 | Richmond | 12 | 12 |
| West Virginia | 84 | Clemson | 76 | 2011-03-17 | West Virginia | 5 | 5 |
| Michigan State | 70 | New Mexico State | 67 | 2010-03-19 | New Mexico State | 5 | 12 |
| Texas A&M | 69 | Utah State | 53 | 2010-03-19 | Texas A&M | 5 | 5 |
| Temple | 65 | Cornell | 78 | 2010-03-19 | Cornell | 12 | 12 |
| Butler | 77 | Texas El Paso | 59 | 2010-03-18 | Butler | 5 | 5 |
| Florida State | 59 | Wisconsin | 61 | 2009-03-20 | Wisconsin | 12 | 12 |
| Utah | 71 | Arizona | 84 | 2009-03-20 | Arizona | 12 | 12 |
| Illinois | 72 | Western Kentucky | 76 | 2009-03-19 | Western Kentucky | 12 | 12 |
| Purdue | 61 | Northern Iowa | 56 | 2009-03-19 | Northern Iowa | 5 | 12 |
| Clemson | 69 | Villanova | 75 | 2008-03-21 | Villanova | 12 | 12 |
| Drake | 99 | Western Kentucky | 101 | 2008-03-21 | Western Kentucky | 12 | 12 |
| Notre Dame | 68 | George Mason | 50 | 2008-03-20 | Notre Dame | 5 | 5 |
| Michigan State | 72 | Temple | 61 | 2008-03-20 | Michigan State | 5 | 5 |
| USC | 77 | Arkansas | 60 | 2007-03-16 | USC | 5 | 5 |
| Virginia Tech | 54 | Illinois | 52 | 2007-03-16 | Illinois | 5 | 12 |
| Tennessee | 121 | Long Beach State | 86 | 2007-03-16 | Tennessee | 5 | 5 |
| Butler | 57 | Old Dominion | 46 | 2007-03-15 | Butler | 5 | 5 |
| Pittsburgh | 79 | Kent State | 64 | 2006-03-17 | Pittsburgh | 5 | 5 |
| Washington | 75 | Utah State | 61 | 2006-03-16 | Washington | 5 | 5 |
| Syracuse | 58 | Texas A&M | 66 | 2006-03-16 | Texas A&M | 12 | 12 |
| Nevada | 79 | Montana | 87 | 2006-03-16 | Montana | 12 | 12 |
| Michigan State | 89 | Old Dominion | 81 | 2005-03-18 | Michigan State | 5 | 5 |
| Georgia Tech | 80 | George Washington | 68 | 2005-03-18 | Georgia Tech | 5 | 5 |
| Villanova | 55 | New Mexico | 47 | 2005-03-18 | Villanova | 5 | 5 |
| Alabama | 73 | Wisc-Milwaukee | 83 | 2005-03-17 | Wisc-Milwaukee | 12 | 12 |
| Providence | 58 | Pacific | 66 | 2004-03-19 | Pacific | 12 | 12 |
| Illinois | 72 | Murray State | 53 | 2004-03-19 | Illinois | 5 | 5 |
| Syracuse | 80 | BYU | 75 | 2004-03-18 | Syracuse | 5 | 5 |
| Florida | 60 | Manhattan | 75 | 2004-03-18 | Manhattan | 12 | 12 |
| Mississippi State | 46 | Butler | 47 | 2003-03-21 | Butler | 12 | 12 |
| Notre Dame | 70 | Wisc-Milwaukee | 69 | 2003-03-20 | Wisc-Milwaukee | 5 | 12 |
| Wisconsin | 81 | Weber State | 74 | 2003-03-20 | Wisconsin | 5 | 5 |
| Connecticut | 58 | BYU | 53 | 2003-03-20 | Connecticut | 5 | 5 |
| Florida | 82 | Creighton | 83 | 2002-03-15 | Creighton | 12 | 12 |
| Miami | 80 | Missouri | 93 | 2002-03-14 | Missouri | 12 | 12 |
| Indiana | 75 | Utah | 56 | 2002-03-14 | Indiana | 5 | 5 |
| Marquette | 69 | Tulsa | 71 | 2002-03-14 | Tulsa | 12 | 12 |
| Virginia | 85 | Gonzaga | 86 | 2001-03-16 | Gonzaga | 12 | 12 |
| Syracuse | 79 | Hawaii | 69 | 2001-03-16 | Syracuse | 5 | 5 |
| Ohio State | 68 | Utah State | 77 | 2001-03-15 | Utah State | 12 | 12 |
| Cincinnati | 84 | BYU | 59 | 2001-03-15 | Cincinnati | 5 | 5 |
| Florida | 69 | Butler | 68 | 2000-03-17 | Butler | 5 | 12 |
| Connecticut | 75 | Utah State | 67 | 2000-03-17 | Utah State | 5 | 12 |
| Kentucky | 85 | St. Bonaventure | 80 | 2000-03-16 | St. Bonaventure | 5 | 12 |
| Texas | 77 | Indiana State | 61 | 2000-03-16 | Texas | 5 | 5 |
| Wisconsin | 32 | Missouri State | 43 | 1999-03-12 | Missouri State | 12 | 12 |
| Charlotte | 81 | Rhode Island | 70 | 1999-03-12 | Charlotte | 5 | 5 |
| UCLA | 53 | Detroit | 56 | 1999-03-11 | Detroit | 12 | 12 |
| Iowa | 77 | UAB | 64 | 1999-03-11 | Iowa | 5 | 5 |
| TCU | 87 | Florida State | 96 | 1998-03-13 | Florida State | 12 | 12 |
| Syracuse | 63 | Iona | 61 | 1998-03-13 | Iona | 5 | 12 |
| Princeton | 69 | UNLV | 57 | 1998-03-12 | Princeton | 5 | 5 |
| Illinois | 64 | South Alabama | 51 | 1998-03-12 | Illinois | 5 | 5 |
| Tulsa | 81 | Boston University | 52 | 1997-03-14 | Tulsa | 5 | 5 |
| Boston College | 73 | Valparaiso | 66 | 1997-03-13 | Valparaiso | 5 | 12 |
| Maryland | 66 | College of Charleston | 75 | 1997-03-13 | College of Charleston | 12 | 12 |
| California | 55 | Princeton | 52 | 1997-03-13 | PUSH | 5 | |
| Memphis | 63 | Drexel | 75 | 1996-03-14 | Drexel | 12 | 12 |
| Mississippi State | 58 | Virginia Commonwealth | 51 | 1996-03-14 | Mississippi State | 5 | 5 |
| Iowa State | 74 | California | 64 | 1996-03-14 | Iowa State | 5 | 5 |
| Penn State | 80 | Arkansas | 86 | 1996-03-14 | Arkansas | 12 | 12 |
March Madness 5 vs 12 Betting History FAQ
Where can I bet on the 5 vs 12 seed March Madness games?
If you are looking for the best place to bet on the 5 vs 12 seed March Madness games, Odds Shark has compiled a list of the Best March Madness Betting Sites for you to wager on this spring. The guide reviews the top NCAAB tournament sportsbooks and gives insight into the best place to bet on March Madness this year for casual fans and experienced bettors.
How do I bet on the 5 vs 12 seed March Madness games?
There are multiple ways to bet on the 5 vs 12 seed March Madness games, including a moneyline bet, a spread bet, or many different props. Odds Shark's How to Bet on March Madness guide outlines all the bet formats you can utilize during the NCAAB tournament and some general March Madness betting tips for each.
When was the last time a 12 seed beat a 5 seed in March Madness?
The last time a No. 12 seed beat a 5 seed in March Madness was in 2024 when the underdog Grand Canyon Antelopes defeated the No. 4 Saint Mary's 75-66.
