It may be an annual SEC rivalry, but stakes have never been so high as No. 11 Alabama takes on No. 14 LSU. Both suffering a pair of losses, the winner of Week 11's meeting likely will earn a spot in the first ever 12-team College Football Playoff while the loser's National Championship hopes will be doomed in Death Valley.
BetMGM is offering Alabama at one of the best prices, listing them as 3-point favorites (-105) with the total set at 58.5 points. To be fully transparent, this is an intensely tough meeting to predict. Both benches are mediocre against the spread, neither show solid trends in regards to the point total, and each are coming off a bye week. So, who survives in Louisiana?
Alabama vs LSU Odds
Matchup Page: Alabama vs LSU, 7:30 pm ET
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama Crimson Tide | -3.0 (-105) | -150 | OVER 58.5 (-110) |
| LSU Tigers | +3.0 (-115) | +120 | UNDER 58.5 (-110) |
Odds as of November 5 from BetMGM
Alabama vs LSU Picks – Week 11
Both programs were given the grace of an extra week of rest and preparation ahead of the rivalry meeting. In their last performances, 'Bama manhandled Missouri, 34-0. Meanwhile, LSU just couldn't get the job done in College Station, trailing Texas A&M, 38-28. In his college football coaching career, Brian Kelly is 21-3 SU when coming off a bye week. However, he's only been with the Tigers since 2022 and one of those losses following was just last season against Alabama, where Kelly was dominated 42-28.
Garrett Nussmeier will struggle against the Tide's passing defense, which is giving up less than 200 yards through the air. Meanwhile, Jalen Milroe gets more breathing room as LSU is allowing nearly 250 yards. I'm also factoring in Milroe's mobility being a key factor as the junior has used his legs to earn 380 yards and 12 touchdowns. It just seems as though Kalen DeBoer has more to work with on the field, confidently relying on his passing and ground attack.
Though each have a duo of defeats to consider, I'm crediting Alabama on its wins over Georgia and Missouri as enough proof to show me the bench can rise to the occasion. Meanwhile, the Tigers impressive wins over Ole Miss and South Carolina were decided by just three-points. In this do-or-die, the Bayou Bengals should prepare to swept away by the Tide.
Alabama vs LSU Week 11 Pick: Alabama -3.0 (-105)
*picks made as of Tuesday, November 5 at 1:30 pm ET
Alabama vs LSU News
At Monday's press conference, Brian Kelly had to address a chunk of his roster being listed as out or questionable for Week 11's game. Of those names is OL Garrett Dellinger, who is officially ruled out after undergoing a surgery on his ankle sprain, WR CJ Daniels is still working through a lower body injury and pushing to make an appearance for Saturday's prime time matchup, while a handful of other depth player's status' are uncertain.
Alabama vs LSU Prop Bet: Jalen Milroe Anytime TD
Averaging 1.5 touchdowns per game and recording a pair scores in five of his eight appearances this season, you can guarantee Milroe to try and rush into the endzone himself. The junior has only failed to score a touchdown once this season, just a few weeks ago against a No.11-ranked Tennessee. But, the Volunteers are a top five defense and still the toughest defensive unit 'Bama has met this season.
Alabama vs LSU Betting Trends
- The LSU Tigers are 6-3 (66.7%) ATS in their last 9 games at home
- The LSU Tigers are 6-2 SU (75.0%) in their last 8 games vs. top 25 scoring defenses
- The OVER hit in 9 of the Alabama Crimson Tide last 12 games as a favorite
