Boise State vs UNLV Odds & Picks Week 9: Saddle Up For The Broncos From Boise

No. 17 Boise State (5-1) hits the road to take on UNLV (6-1) in what should be a high-scoring affair Friday night at Allegiant Stadium. FanDuel has this game fairly tight, making UNLV the 3.5-point home underdogs and the total settling in at a lofty 66.5 points.

Before we lay down the pick, gotta give you some numbers from last season's Mountain West championship game in Vegas which Boise State won, 44-20. With Taylor Green at QB, completing 12 of 15 for 226 yards, and this year's Heisman Trophy favorite Ashton Jeanty gobbling up 153 yards, it was an easy W for the Broncos. And Boise has been all over UNLV since 2015 with a 4-0 record.

Boise State vs UNLV odds

Boise State vs UNLV, Oct. 25, 10:30 pm ET

Odds as of Oct. 22 at FanDuel

Boise State vs UNLV pick - Week 9

Boise State -3.5 (-118) at FanDuel

You all know that I've been living here in Vegas for 30+ years and the UNLV football team has been basically irrelevant for most of that time. In comes Barry Odom, an actual coach and not a guy promoted from Bishop Gorman High School, and the Rebels are indeed relevant again.

Last season, Odom's first on the Vegas Strip, after four years as the head coach at Missouri, was solid, with a 9-5 straight up record and 9-4 against the spread. This season, it's a little bit of magic, with a 6-1 record and 4-2 against the spread. It almost feels like Jerry Tarkanian is back in Vegas, except the Rebs are not ranked in the AP Top 25. They're 6-1, Boise is 5-1, so what's up? However, a win on Friday night and a 7-1 record should get the job done. 

We talked about the Boise beatdown last season in MWC title game, and while Green is gone, Maddux Madsen has been plugged in and he is flourishing in Spencer Danielson's offense, completing 102 of 160 (63.8%) with 1,273 yards, 12 TDs and just 2 INTs. But as the world knows, Jeanty is the story here and on his way to New York for a shot at the Heisman.

Ready for some SICK numbers. A bunch of you probably have not seen Jeanty because the Broncos play out West, but this kid is ALL EVERYTHING. He has sliced and diced every defense so far this season, carrying the rock for 1,248 yards in ONLY six games, averaging 9.9 yards per touch. Oh yea, throw in 17 TDs and you see why he has jumped to the top of the Heisman board. That one/two punch, Jeanty/Madsen, is why Boise is rocking the scoreboard for 46.8 points per game.

One of our key handicapping metrics is looking at who you beat and who you lost to. The building blocks of the season, which we're calling LEGO-METRICS.' Boise has beaten a string of mostly cupcakes like Georgia Southern, Portland State, Utah State and Hawaii. The W against Washington State was important, but the 37-34 loss to the No. 1 team in the country, Oregon, AT Eugene, was even more impressive. UNLV's 6-1 record has been built mostly on cupcakes as well, with wins over Houston, Utah Tech, Kansas and Utah State. The W against Oregon State, AT Corvallis was impressive and the only loss was a 44-41 L at home against Syracuse.

If you're into comparative scores, check this out. And if you noticed that both teams played Utah State, good eyes. Boise (-28) trampled Utah State at home on the blue turf, 62-30, while UNLV rolled up to Logan and rocked the Aggies on the Merlin Olsen Field, 50-34.

Of course I have a little tiny bias toward the Rebels, but that game against Oregon keeps popping into my head. Madsen didn't have a great game against the Ducks, hitting on only 17 of 40, but the kid does not make too many mistakes. He has 12 TDs against just 2 INTs and if Jeanty could gobble up 192 yards on the ground against a stout Oregon defense, he should be able to find some large holes in the Vegas D.

Hajj-Malik Williams took over at QB for Vegas after the NIL kerfuffle with Matthew Sluka, and he has been solid. Thinking that this game is pretty even but as long as the line stays around a FG, we're throwing a few chips at the Broncs from Boise.

Boise State vs UNLV betting trends