Florida vs Texas Odds & Picks Week 11: Longhorns To Cover Generous Spread

They’re two of the bigger brand names in college football, with seven national championships between them—but Florida and Texas haven’t met on the gridiron since 1940. That long hiatus finally ends Saturday, when the Longhorns are 21-point favorites over the visiting Gators in Austin.

Florida has covered the spread in five straight games, but has seen its top two quarterbacks both go down with injuries and finished last week’s loss to Georgia with a third-stringer behind center. Texas has covered in just one of its last four, a span that saw the Longhorns lose outright as a home favorite to Georgia and then hang on beat 17-point underdog Vanderbilt by three points in their most recent outing two weeks ago.

Florida vs Texas Odds

Matchup Page: Florida vs Texas, 12:00 pm ET

Odds as of November 4 from Caesars Sportsbook

Florida vs Texas Picks – Week 11

Texas looked like the national championship favorite as it hammered each of its first six opponents, managing an oblique strain to starting quarterback Quinn Ewers in the process, and covering the spread five times over that span. But wins over Michigan and Oklahoma turned out to be not as impressive as they once seemed, and the Longhorns’ first four SEC games have brought three ATS losses and one outright defeat.  

Florida, meanwhile, has shown lots of moxie in recovering from a terrible start, winning there of its last five outright with the losses being close ones to nationally ranked Tennessee and Georgia. The Gators have also covered the spread in five straight, including last week against Georgia—the teams entered the fourth quarter tied, and the Bulldogs pulled away from the 16-point underdogs behind a pair of late TDs.

But the Gators’ run may not be sustainable. Graham Mertz, one of two quarterbacks Florida used in rotation, was lost for the season with a torn ACL against Tennessee. The other, freshman D.J. Lagway, went out with a hamstring injury in the second quarter against Georgia. That left the offense in hands of third-stringer Aidan Warner, a Yale transfer. The Gators managed only 81 yards in the second half, which doesn’t bode well for this week.

Florida vs Texas Week 11 Pick: Texas -21

The Longhorns for all their offensive firepower haven’t gone OVER the total since late September, which has led many to wonder if Ewers continues to feel some nagging effects of the oblique issue that kept him out for two games earlier this season. Florida has split its last four against the total, which given the Gators’ quarterback issue is a very low one this week for a reason.

Florida vs Texas Week 11 Pick: UNDER 48

*picks made as of Monday, November at 12:30 pm ET

Florida vs Texas News

While the Gators as of Monday hadn’t yet clarified how long Lagway will be out, the optics didn’t bode well—the freshman quarterback was carted off the field against Georgia, and he later returned to the sideline on crutches and with his leg wrapped. Even relatively minor hamstring injuries can linger for weeks, so the expectation is that it will be Warner on Saturday at least. While Texas coach Steve Sarkisian told reporters that starting safety Andrew Mukuba is “on the mend” after missing the Vanderbilt game two weeks ago with a knee injury, his status for Florida remained uncertain.

Florida vs Texas Prop Bet: DeAndre Moore Anytime TD

With Texas using the three-headed tailback combo of Jaydon Blue, Jerrick Gibson and Quintrevion Wisner in the backfield, the best bet to find the end zone Saturday is a receiver—Moore, who leads all Longhorns wideouts with five touchdowns on the season.  Moore returned from a hip pointer than kept him out of the Georgia game to catch six passes for 97 yards and two touchdowns in his most recent outing at Vanderbilt.

Florida vs Texas Betting Trends