Georgia vs Texas Odds And Picks Week 15: SEC Championship Gamee

Seven weeks ago, Georgia unleashed a memorable defensive performance in a 30-15 domination of top-ranked Texas in Austin. And the Bulldogs have rarely looked quite the same since, which is why they’re a 2.5-point underdog to the same Longhorns in Saturday’s SEC championship game in Atlanta.

Since winning that game outright as a four-point road underdog, Georgia has covered the spread just once—in a 31-17 home victory over 8.5-point underdog Tennessee. The Bulldogs lost outright at Ole Miss as a 1.5-point favorite, and barely survived 17-point underdog Georgia Tech in eight overtimes at home last week. Texas meanwhile covered as a 4.5-point road favorite in last week’s 17-7 triumph at Texas A&M, just its second ATS victory in its past six games.

Georgia vs Texas Odds - Week 15

SEC Championship Game: Georgia vs Texas, Dec 7, 4:00 pm ET

Georgia vs Texas Odds Tonight
Teams	Spread	Moneyline	Total
Georgia	+2.5 (-105)	+112	O48.5 (-122)
Alabama	-2.5 (-115)	-134	U48.5 (+100)

Georgia vs Texas Picks - Week 15

The Bulldogs have tended to play up or down to competition, which makes them maddening against the spread—they’ve covered against Texas, Tennessee and Clemson, three of the highest-ranked teams on their schedule, and whiffed against everyone else. Georgia’s cover rate of 25 percent is tied for fifth-worst nationally, according to data at TeamRankings.com, and is easily the worst among teams in the Top 25.

Texas, though, has fared only marginally better. The Longhorns covered four straight against a soft preconference schedule, and have covered only three times in SEC play. A lot of their games look like last week’s victory over Texas A&M—they get out front early, shift into neutral, and win by a comfortable margin that doesn’t seem overpowering. They haven’t played a single-digit game since late October at Vanderbilt, so they also haven’t really been tested in a while, either.

The Longhorns have at least remained rather consistent, with coach Steve Sarkisian switching quarterback as needed. The question is which Georgia do we get Saturday—the one which blistered Tennessee, or barely survived Georgia Tech? Here’s a hint: Bulldogs quarterback Carson Beck, once so interception-prone, has 11 TDs to zero picks over his past three starts. That Georgia defense isn’t quite its old self, but Kirby Smart’s team also has the weapons to keep this close.

Georgia vs Texas Week 15 Pick: Georgia +2.5

Georgia has gone OVER in five of its last seven, while Texas has exceeded the total just once in its last nine. The regular-season game was a slugfest that finished way UNDER a total of 56.5, but that was before the Bulldogs gave up 226 rushing yards to Massachusetts and 563 total yards to Georgia Tech. This total is among the lowest of the SEC season for both teams, so we’re going OVER in a game that could turn into a shootout.

Georgia vs Texas Week 15 Pick: OVER 48.5

Georgia vs Texas News

Georgia running back Trevor Etienne has missed the past three games with a rib injury, and Smart on Monday didn’t sound optimistic about the chances of his leading rusher playing Saturday. “Trevor is a ways away,” Smart told reporters. Another running back, Branson Robinson, has missed six games with a knee injury. On the Texas side, left tackle Kelvin Banks is questionable with an ankle injury suffered against Texas A&M. The Longhorns will also monitor the ankle sprain that quarterback Quinn Ewers played through last week.

Georgia vs Texas Prop Bet: Quintrevion Wisner 100+ Rushing Yards (+180)

Wisner carried the ball only 15 times the first time around against Georgia—expect that to change in the SEC championship game. The Longhorns running back had 33 carries for 186 yards last week against Texas A&M, and 26 carries for 158 yards against Kentucky in the game before that. Sarkisian has recently placed an emphasis on being physical and running the ball, and Wisner is delivering with big numbers on the ground.