Illinois vs South Carolina Odds & Picks: Citrus Bowl

Two teams that ended the regular season on hot streaks collide in Orlando when South Carolina faces Illinois in the Dec. 31 Citrus Bowl. The Gamecocks enter having won five straight, most recently at a Clemson team that wound up claiming the ACC title. They’re a 9.5-point favorite over the Fighting Illini, who head to central Florida having won three in a row.

Illinois covered in every game over that span and has also beaten the spread in six of its last nine. South Carolina meanwhile has beaten the spread in nine of its past 11, and the Gamecocks’ cover rate of 75 percent is tied for fifth-best nationally according to data at TeamRankings.com.

Illinois vs South Carolina Odds

Matchup Page: Illinois vs South Carolina, December 31st, 3:00 pm ET

Odds as of December 13 at Fanduel

Illinois vs South Carolina Picks — Citrus Bowl

South Carolina had an interception return for a touchdown negated by a penalty in its Sept. 14 game against LSU, a flag that helped the Tigers rally to win—and likely cost the Gamecocks a spot in the College Football Playoff. That’s how close this season was to being even better for the Gamecocks, whose 9-3 overall record includes no bad losses and a narrow defeat at Alabama on a missed field goal in the final minutes. 

Illinois lost to the two best teams on its schedule, Oregon and Penn State, though the Illini did cover as a 19-point underdog in Happy Valley. More concerning were an outright loss to middling Minnesota and a skin-of-their-teeth overtime victory over Purdue, which finished winless in the Big 10. They may both have finished with 9-3 records, but Illinois’ valleys were deeper than the Gamecocks, and their schedule wasn’t nearly as strong—it’s 53rd in the Sagarin ratings, compared to 17th for South Carolina.

And the matchup for Illinois isn’t great along the line of scrimmage—quarterback Luke Altmyer was sacked 31 times this season, which doesn’t bode well against the second-best pass rush in the SEC. Yes, this line feels a tad too wide. But it’s still hard to bet against a South Carolina team that ended the regular season playing as well as anyone in the country, led by a dynamic quarterback in LaNorris Sellers with a penchant for living up to the moment.

Illinois vs South Carolina Citrus Bowl Pick: South Carolina -9.5

Illinois enters the Citrus Bowl having gone OVER in three straight, while the Gamecocks have gone OVER in seven of their last nine. While South Carolina’s defense is very good, it can be a little bend-don’t-break at times, and if you like the Gamecocks to cover that spread then they’re going to have to put some points on the board to do it.

Illinois vs South Carolina Citrus Bowl Pick: OVER 48.5

Illinois vs South Carolina News

While South Carolina has had a handful of players enter the transfer portal, none of them are on the Gamecocks’ two-deep. The bigger question concerns edge rusher Kyle Kennard, the SEC leader in sacks, who won the Bronko Nagurski Award as the nation’s best defensive player. Kennard, a senior, told reporters at the ceremony that he hadn’t yet made up his mind on whether he’d play in the Citrus Bowl. On the Illinois side, top receiver Pat Bryant has announced he will opt out of the bowl game.

Illinois vs South Carolina Prop Bet: LaNorris Sellers Anytime TD

Sellers’ game-winning touchdown dash against Clemson in the regular-season finale will go down in Gamecocks lore. The quarterback rushed for both of South Carolina’s scores that day and has four rushing touchdowns over his past five games. Don’t be surprised if he tucks the ball and scampers for another against Illinois.

Illinois vs South Carolina Betting Trends