They may be the defending national champions, but from a sports betting perspective this season, the Michigan Wolverines are near the bottom of the pack. Michigan’s cover rate of 16.7 percent is tied for fifth-worst in the nation, according to data at TeamRankings.com—and now the Wolverines are a point-spread favorite on the road?
Indeed that’s the case this weekend, when the Wolverines are a 3.5-point favorite Saturday at Illinois. The Fighting Illini enter at 5-1 overall, with their lone loss at Penn State, and have covered in three of their five games against FBS opponents. So why are they underdogs this week? Oddsmakers might be hesitant because Illinois needed overtime to squeak by a pretty bad Purdue team at home last week.
Michigan vs Illinois Odds
Matchup Page: Michigan vs Illinois, 3:30 pm ET
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Michigan Wolverines | -3.5 (-105) | -155 | OVER 43.5 (-112) |
| Illinois Fighting Illini | +3.5 (-115) | +130 | UNDER 43.5 (-108) |
Odds as of October 15
Michigan vs Illinois Picks – Week 8
Indeed, Illinois was fortunate last week—the Illini tied the Purdue game on a last-second field goal and won it in OT on a sack when the Boilermakers went for two. But in an era when Vanderbilt can beat Alabama and Northern Illinois can topple Notre Dame, such close calls have come to be expected, and don’t necessarily define an entire season.
But you know what does define a season? The lack of a quarterback, and chronic struggles to move the ball. That’s where Michigan is right now—16th in the now 18-team Big 10 in total offense, 15th in offensive touchdowns, and last in passing offense. The Wolverines tried their third quarterback of the season two weeks ago in a loss at Washington, and the seventh-year journeyman, Jack Tuttle, will start Saturday in Champaign.
A team that one-dimensional, now relying on a quarterback who barely played in previous stops at Utah and Indiana, is very hard to trust. While Illinois is hardly the Monsters of the Midway—they’ve middle of the pack in the Big 10 in just about everything—they have a highly competent quarterback in Luke Altmyer, a pretty good secondary, and enough to upset the Wolverines in front of a home crowd.
Michigan vs Illinois Week 8 Pick: Illinois +130
Despite Michigan’s shortcomings on offense, the Wolverines have still managed to go OVER in three straight games against a series of relatively low totals—including 34.5 and 39.5 the past two weeks. Illinois has gone OVER totals in the 40s in two of the past three weeks, and we’ll stick with those trends again Saturday night.
Michigan vs Illinois Week 8 Pick: OVER 43.5 (-112)
*picks made as of Tuesday, October 15 at 1:30 pm ET
Michigan vs Illinois News
The Wolverines were down three starters for their most recent game two weeks ago at Washington— edge rusher Derrick Moore and offensive linemen Dom Giuduce and Myles Hinton—but coming out of the off week coach Sherrone Moore told reporters he was optimistic that all of them would return against Illinois. The bigger question is in the secondary, where Ja’Den McBurrows and Rod Moore are likely to remain out, according to SI. Illinois is likely to be without leading rusher Kaden Feagin, who hyperextended his left leg in practice on Tuesday, according to 247 Sports.
Michigan vs Illinois Prop Bet: iIlinois to Score First (+105)
The Fighting Illini have scored first in every one of their games so far this season, including at Penn State on Sept. 28. Against an opponent with an anemic offense and before a sold-out Memorial Stadium, there’s every opportunity for Illinois to continue that trend.
Michigan vs Illinois Betting Trends
Illinois is 15-8 ATS as an underdog in four seasons under coach Bret Bielema
Illinois has gone UNDER in 14 of 24 home games under Bielema
Michigan has gone 10-5 ATS as a road favorite over the past five seasons
